Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Martian paleoclimate and enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide

Current evidence indicates that the Martian surface is abundant with water presently in the form of ice, while the atmosphere was at one time more massive with a past surface pressure of as much as 1 atm of CO₂. In an attempt to understand the Martian paleoclimate, we have modeled a past CO₂H₂O greenhouse and find global temperatures which are consistent with an earlier presence of liquid surface water, a finding which agrees with the extensive evidence for past fluvial erosion. An important aspect of the CO₂H₂O greenhouse model is the detailed inclusion of CO₂ hot bands. For a surface pressure of 1 atm of CO₂, the present greenhouse model predicts a global mean surface temperature of 294°K, but if the hot bands are excluded, a surface temperature of only 250°K is achieved.     

Monitoring directions and rates of change in trees outside forests through multitemporal analysis of map sequences

This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.     

On the habitability of the OGLE-2006-BLG-109L planetary system

We investigate the dynamics of putative Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of the extrasolar planetary system OGLE-2006-BLG-109L, a close analogue of the Solar system. Our work is inspired by the work of Malhotra & Minton. Using the linear Laplace–Lagrange theory, they identified a strong secular resonance that may excite large eccentricity of orbits in the HZ. However, due to uncertain or unconstrained orbital parameters, the subsystem of Jupiters may be found in a dynamically active region of the phase space spanned by low-order mean-motion resonances. To generalize this secular model, we construct a semi-analytical averaging method in terms of the restricted problem. The secular orbits of large planets are approximated by numerically averaged osculating elements. They are used to calculate the mean orbits of terrestrial planets by means of a high-order analytic secular theory developed in our previous works. We found regions in the parameter space of the problem in which stable, quasi-circular orbits in the HZ are permitted. The excitation of eccentricity in the HZ strongly depends on the apsidal angle of jovian orbits. For some combinations of that angle, eccentricities and semimajor axes consistent with the observations, a terrestrial planet may survive in low eccentric orbits. We also study the effect of post-Newtonian gravity correction on the innermost secular resonance.     

The Scale of VGI in Map Production: A Perspective on European National Mapping Agencies

The perspective of European National Mapping Agencies (NMA) on the role of citizen sensing in map production was explored. The NMAs varied greatly in their engagement with the community generating volunteered geographic information (VGI) and in their future plans. From an assessment of NMA standard practices, it was evident that much VGI was acquired with a positional accuracy that, while less than that typically acquired by NMAs, actually exceeded the requirements of the nominal data capture scale used by most NMAs. Opportunities for VGI use in map revision and updating were evident, especially for agencies that use a continuous rather than cyclical updating policy. Some NMAs had also developed systems to engage with citizen sensors and examples are discussed. Only rarely was VGI used to collect data on features beyond the standard set used by the NMAs. The potential role of citizen sensing and so its current scale of use by NMAs is limited by a series of concerns, notably relating to issues of data quality, the nature and motivation of the contributors, legal issues, the sustainability of data source, and employment fears of NMA staff. Possible priorities for future research and development are identified to help ensure that the potential of VGI in mapping is realized.     

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.     

Polar organic micropollutants in the coastal environment of different marine systems

Polar anthropogenic organic micropollutants are frequently detected in freshwater and discharged on large scale into marine systems. In this work the results of 153 samples collected from the shorelines of the Baltic Sea (Germany), Northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), Aegean Sea and Dardanelles (Greece & Turkey), San Francisco Bay (USA), Pacific Ocean (USA), Mediterranean Sea (Israel), and Balearic Sea (Spain) are presented. The samples were analyzed for various classes of micropollutants such as pharmaceuticals, corrosion inhibitors, biocides, and stimulants. Caffeine, paraxanthine, theobromine, tolyltriazole, 1H-benzotriazole, and atrazine were detected in >50% of all samples. The detection frequencies of carbamazepine, iopamidol, diuron, sulfamethoxazole, paracetamol, theophylline, and atenolol were between 20% and 32%. As caffeine is linked to untreated wastewater, the widespread occurrence of raw sewage in marine environments and thus potentially elevated nutrient concentrations and risk for the presence of wastewater-related pathogens is remarkable.