Walker circulation controls ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in uncoupled and coupled climate model simulations

Many climate models strongly underestimate the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the positive (amplifying) zonal surface wind feedback and negative (damping) surface-heat flux feedback (hereafter ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, EAF). This hampers a realistic representation of ENSO dynamics in these models. Here we show that the atmospheric components of climate models participating in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) when forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST), already underestimate EAF on average by 23%, but less than their coupled counterparts (on average by 54%). There is a pronounced tendency of atmosphere models to simulate stronger EAF, when they exhibit a stronger mean deep convection and enhanced cloud cover over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), indicative of a stronger rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Further, differences in the mean deep convection over the WEP between the coupled and uncoupled models explain a large part of the differences in EAF, with the deep convection in the coupled models strongly depending on the equatorial Pacific SST bias. Experiments with a single atmosphere model support the relation between the equatorial Pacific atmospheric mean state, the SST bias and the EAF. An implemented cold SST bias in the observed SST forcing weakens deep convection and reduces cloud cover in the rising branch of the PWC, causing weaker EAF. A warm SST bias has the opposite effect. Our results elucidate how biases in the mean state of the PWC and equatorial SST hamper a realistic simulation of the EAF.     

A modelling investigation into lake-breeze development and convection triggering in the Nam Co Lake basin,Tibetan Plateau

This paper uses the cloud resolving Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model coupled to the interactive surface model Hybrid in order to investigate the diurnal development of a lake-breeze system at the Nam Co Lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Simulations with several background wind speeds are conducted, and the interaction of the lake breeze with topography and background wind in triggering moist and deep convection is studied. The model is able to adequately simulate the systems most important dynamical features such as turbulent surface fluxes and the development of a lake breeze for the different wind conditions. We identify two different mechanisms for convection triggering that are dependent on the direction of the background wind: triggering over topography, when the background wind and the lake breeze have the same flow direction, and triggering due to convergence between the lake-breeze front and the background wind. Our research also suggests that precipitation measurements at the centre of the basins on the Tibetan Plateau are not representative for the basin as a whole as precipitation is expected to occur mainly in the vicinity of the topography.     

Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation

In this study the observed non-linearity in the spatial pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is analyzed. It is shown that ENSO skewness is not only a characteristic of the amplitude of events (El Niños being stronger than La Niñas) but also of the spatial pattern and time evolution. It is demonstrated that these non-linearities can be related to the non-linear response of the zonal winds to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. It is shown in observations as well as in coupled model simulations that significant differences in the spatial pattern between positive (El Niño) versus negative (La Niña) and strong versus weak events exist, which is mostly describing the difference between central and east Pacific events. Central Pacific events tend to be weak El Niño or strong La Niña events. In turn east Pacific events tend to be strong El Niño or weak La Niña events. A rotation of the two leading empirical orthogonal function modes illustrates that for both El Niño and La Niña extreme events are more likely than expected from a normal distribution. The Bjerknes feedbacks and time evolution of strong ENSO events in observations as well as in coupled model simulations also show strong asymmetries, with strong El Niños being forced more strongly by zonal wind than by thermocline depth anomalies and are followed by La Niña events. In turn strong La Niña events are preceded by El Niño events and are more strongly forced by thermocline depth anomalies than by wind anomalies. Further, the zonal wind response to sea surface temperature anomalies during strong El Niño events is stronger and shifted to the east relative to strong La Niña events, supporting the eastward shifted El Niño pattern and the asymmetric time evolution. Based on the simplified hybrid coupled RECHOZ model of ENSO it can be shown that the non-linear zonal wind response to SST anomalies causes the asymmetric forcings of ENSO events. This also implies that strong El Niños are mostly wind driven and less predictable and strong La Niñas are mostly thermocline depth driven and better predictable, which is demonstrated by a set of 100 perfect model forecast ensembles.     

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.     

Evolution,transfer and release of magmas and volcanic gases: An introduction

In this introduction, recent progress in the study of the evolution, transfer and release of magmas and volcanic gases is briefly reviewed, based on discussions at the MAG2007 international conference held in Taipei, Taiwan, in April 2007. The meeting pooled the diverse expertise of igneous and volcanic gas geochemists. This special issue, which presents six case studies covering a range of topics from variations in mantle source compositions to the nature of volcanic degassing, reflects that diversity.     

Gully catchments as a sediment sink,not just a source: Results from a long‐term (~12 500 year) sediment budget

Sediment delivery from hillslopes to trunk streams represents a significant pathway of mass transfer in the landscape, with a large fraction facilitated by gully systems. The internal gully geomorphic dynamics represent a considerable gap in many landscape and empirical erosion models, therefore a better understanding of these processes over longer timescales (10–10⁴ years) is needed. This study analyses the sediment mass balance and storage dynamics within a headwater gully catchment in central Europe over the last ~12 500 years. Human induced erosion resulted in hillslope erosion rates ~2.3 times higher than under naturally de‐vegetated conditions (during the Younger Dryas), however the total sediment inputs to the gully system (and therefore gully aggradation), were similar. Net gully storage has consistently increased to become the second largest term in the sediment budget after hillslope erosion (storage is ~45% and ~73% of inputs during two separate erosion and aggradation cycles). In terms of the depletion of gully sediment storage, the sediment mass balance shows that export beyond the gully fan was not significant until the last ~500 years, due to reduced gully fan accommodation space. The significance of storage effects on the gully sediment mass balance, particularly the export terms, means that it would be difficult to determine the influences of human impact and/or climatic changes from floodplain or lake sedimentary archives alone and that the sediment budgets of the headwater catchments from which they drain are more likely to provide these mechanistic links. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Causal Inference in Field Development Optimization: Application to Unconventional Plays

Mathematical Geosciences - In the current era of big data and machine learning, a strong focus exists on prediction and classification. In industrial applications, however, many important questions...     

A high-resolution pigment and productivity record from the varved Ponte Tresa basin (Lake Lugano,Switzerland) since 1919: insight from an approach that combines hyperspectral imaging and high-performance liquid chromatography

Eutrophication, prompted by anthropogenic activities and climate change has led to multiple adverse effects in freshwater systems across the world. As instrumental measurements are typically short, lake sediment proxies of aquatic primary productivity (PP) are often used to extend the observational record of eutrophication back in time. Sedimentary pigments provide specific information on PP and major algal communities, but the records are often limited in the temporal resolution. Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) data, in contrast, provide very high seasonal (sub-varve-scale) resolution, but the pigment speciation is limited. Here, we explore a combined approach on varved sediments from the Ponte Tresa basin, southern Switzerland, taking the advantages of both methods (HSI and high performance liquid chromatography, HPLC) with the goal to reconstruct the recent eutrophication history at seasonal to interannual resolution. We propose a modified scheme for the calibration of HSI data (here: Relative Absorption Band Depth between 590 and 730 nm RABD_590–730) and HPLC-inferred pigment concentrations (here: ‘green pigments’ {chlorophyll a and pheophytin a}) and present a calibration model (R²?=?0.82; RMSEP?~?12%). The calibration range covers >?98% of the spectral index values of all individual pixels (68 µm?×?68 µm) in the sediment core. This allows us to identify and quantify extreme pigment concentrations related to individual major algal blooms, to identify multiple algal blooms within one season, and to assess interannual variability of PP. Prior to the 1930s, ‘green pigment’ concentrations and fluxes (~?50 µg g^?1;?~?2 µg cm^?2a^?1, chlorophyll a and pheophytin a) and interannual variability was very low. From the 1930s to 1964, chlorophyll a and pheophytin a increased by a factor of ~?4, and ββ-carotene appeared in substantial amounts (~?0.4 µg cm^?2a^?1). Interannual variability increased markedly and a first strong algal bloom with ‘green pigment’ concentrations as high as 700 µg g^?1 is observed in 1958. Peak eutrophication (~?12 µg cm^?2a^?1 chlorophyll a and pheophytin a) and very high interannual variability with extreme algal blooms (‘green pigment’ concentrations up to 1400 µg g^?1) is observed until ca. 1990, when eutrophication decreases slightly. Maximum PP values after 2009 are likely the result of internal nutrient cycling related to repeated deep mixing of the lake.     

Rapid mapping in support of emergency response after earthquake events

Earthquakes and other sudden onset natural disasters require quick and efficient emergency response. Earth observation (EO) data can make a valuable contribution to emergency response efforts if provided within hours and at the most days after the event. Mechanisms like the International Charter Space and Major Disasters and the European GMES Emergency Response Service provide the necessary basis for an efficient and rapid provision of EO data and damage mapping. This paper provides an overview of earthquake damage assessment methodologies, their potential and their limitations in a rapid mapping context and outlines a methodology for casualty estimation. Two case studies—the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2011 Van (Turkey) earthquake—are presented, where DLR’s Center for satellite-based crisis information (ZKI) provided rapid damage maps using a team-based visual interpretation approach. Additionally, the application of a casualty estimation method in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake is outlined.