Occurrence of selected estrogens in mangrove sediments

This paper presents results related to the occurrence and distribution of estrogens along the Brazilian coast. Three mangrove areas were chosen to evaluate the presence of estrogens in surface sediments of mangrove forests. The presence of estrogens was observed in all studied sites. 17-α-Ethinylestradiol (EE2), a synthetic estrogen, was the most common and has been found in higher concentration (0.45-129.78 ng/g) compared to 17-β-estradiol (E1) and estrone (E2) (both being natural estrogens). The concentrations of E1 and E2 ranged from 0.02 to 49.27 ng/g and 0.03 to 39.77 ng/g, respectively. Theoretically, under anaerobic conditions EE2 can be reduced to E1 even in environments such as sediments of mangrove forests, which are essentially anaerobic. Even if the concentrations of estrogens seem to be insignificant in some samples, the effects remain uncertain.     

Gully catchments as a sediment sink,not just a source: Results from a long‐term (~12 500 year) sediment budget

Sediment delivery from hillslopes to trunk streams represents a significant pathway of mass transfer in the landscape, with a large fraction facilitated by gully systems. The internal gully geomorphic dynamics represent a considerable gap in many landscape and empirical erosion models, therefore a better understanding of these processes over longer timescales (10–10⁴ years) is needed. This study analyses the sediment mass balance and storage dynamics within a headwater gully catchment in central Europe over the last ~12 500 years. Human induced erosion resulted in hillslope erosion rates ~2.3 times higher than under naturally de‐vegetated conditions (during the Younger Dryas), however the total sediment inputs to the gully system (and therefore gully aggradation), were similar. Net gully storage has consistently increased to become the second largest term in the sediment budget after hillslope erosion (storage is ~45% and ~73% of inputs during two separate erosion and aggradation cycles). In terms of the depletion of gully sediment storage, the sediment mass balance shows that export beyond the gully fan was not significant until the last ~500 years, due to reduced gully fan accommodation space. The significance of storage effects on the gully sediment mass balance, particularly the export terms, means that it would be difficult to determine the influences of human impact and/or climatic changes from floodplain or lake sedimentary archives alone and that the sediment budgets of the headwater catchments from which they drain are more likely to provide these mechanistic links. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Retreating ice: research in pro‐glacial areas matters

Glacier forefields are landscapes in transition from glacial to non‐glacial conditions; this implies intense geomorphic, hydrological and ecological dynamics with important on‐ and off‐site effects. This special issue collects 13 papers covering recent research in both (sub‐)polar and alpine pro‐glacial environments that focus on (i) pro‐glacial sediment sources, (ii) pro‐glacial rivers, (iii) pro‐glacial lakes, (iv) ground water and ice, and (v) the development of soil and vegetation in its interplay with morphodynamics. Advances in mapping, surveying and geophysical techniques form the basis for research perspectives related to the historical evolution of pro‐glacial areas, the understanding of complex interactions of multiple processes, and the effects of continued glacier recession. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluctuations of electrical conductivity as a natural tracer for bank filtration in a losing stream

A key parameter used in the assessment of bank filtration is the travel time of the infiltrated river water during the passage through groundwater. We analyze time series of electrical conductivity (EC) in the river and adjacent groundwater observation wells to investigate travel times of young hyporheic groundwater in adjoining channelized and restored sections of River Thur in North-East Switzerland. To quantify mixing ratios and mean residence times we perform cross-correlation analysis and non-parametric deconvolution of the EC time series. Measurements of radon-222 in the groundwater samples validate the calculated residence times. A simple relationship between travel time and distance to the river has not been observed. Therefore, we speculate that the lateral position and depth of the thalweg as well as the type of bank stabilization might control the infiltration processes in losing rivers. Diurnal oscillations of EC observed in the river and in nearby observation wells facilitate analyzing the temporal variation of infiltration. The diurnal oscillations are particularly pronounced in low flow situations, while the overall EC signal is dominated by individual high-flow events. Differences in travel times derived from diurnal and overall EC signals thus reflect different infiltration regimes.     

A web‐based visualization tool for exploring stakeholder conflicts in land‐use planning

This article describes an open source web‐based visualization tool for exploring stakeholder conflicts in land‐use planning. It implements a multi‐criteria, decision‐analytic framework which solves a conflict‐constrained knapsack problem in order to find Pareto efficient combinations of actions which maximize public value, given the conflict constraint. The user interface is centered around an interactive map in which geographical subareas are color‐shaded in proportion to the mean strength of preference for a particular chosen action within the population in the selected area. The aim of this work is to investigate the use of web technologies and formal problem‐solving methods for improving public participation in land‐use planning and support local governments in the pursuit of improved decision‐making. The tool was developed using the free statistical programming language R and the web application framework Shiny. Its usefulness is demonstrated through a case study in Upplands Väsby municipality in Stockholm County, Sweden. The article ends with a summary together with some ideas for future research and development.     

In situ pore-pressure evolution during dynamic CPT measurements in soft sediments of the western Baltic Sea

We present in situ strength and pore-pressure measurements from 57 dynamic cone penetration tests in sediments of Mecklenburg (n?=?51), Eckernförde (n?=?2) and Gelting (n?=?4) bays, western Baltic Sea, characterised by thick mud layers and partially free microbial gas resulting from the degradation of organic material. In Mecklenburg and Eckernförde bays, sediment sampling by nine gravity cores served sedimentological characterisation, analyses of geotechnical properties, and laboratory shear tests. At selected localities, high-resolution echo-sounder profiles were acquired. Our aim was to deploy a dynamic cone penetrometer (CPT) to infer sediment shear strength and cohesion of the sea bottom as a function of fluid saturation. The results show very variable changes in pore pressure and sediment strength during the CPT deployments. The majority of the CPT measurements (n?=?54) show initially negative pore-pressure values during penetration, and a delayed response towards positive pressures thereafter. This so-called type B pore-pressure signal was recorded in all three bays, and is typically found in soft muds with high water contents and undrained shear strengths of 1.6–6.4 kPa. The type B signal is further affected by displacement of sediment and fluid upon penetration of the lance, skin effects during dynamic profiling, enhanced consolidation and strength of individual horizons, the presence of free gas, and a dilatory response of the sediment. In Mecklenburg Bay, the remaining small number of CPT measurements (n?=?3) show a well-defined peak in both pore pressure and cone resistance during penetration, i.e. an initial marked increase which is followed by exponential pore-pressure decay during dissipation. This so-called type A pore-pressure signal is associated with normally consolidated mud, with indurated clay layers showing significantly higher undrained shear strength (up to 19 kPa). In Eckernförde and Gelting bays pore-pressure response type B is exclusively found, while in Mecklenburg Bay types A and B were detected. Despite the striking similarities in incremental density increase and shear strength behaviour with depth, gas occurrence and subtle variations in the coarse-grained fraction cause distinct pore-pressure curves. Gaseous muds interbedded with silty and sandy layers are most common in the three bays, and the potential effect of free gas (i.e. undersaturated pore space) on in situ strength has to be explored further.     

Walker circulation controls ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in uncoupled and coupled climate model simulations

Many climate models strongly underestimate the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the positive (amplifying) zonal surface wind feedback and negative (damping) surface-heat flux feedback (hereafter ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, EAF). This hampers a realistic representation of ENSO dynamics in these models. Here we show that the atmospheric components of climate models participating in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) when forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST), already underestimate EAF on average by 23%, but less than their coupled counterparts (on average by 54%). There is a pronounced tendency of atmosphere models to simulate stronger EAF, when they exhibit a stronger mean deep convection and enhanced cloud cover over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), indicative of a stronger rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Further, differences in the mean deep convection over the WEP between the coupled and uncoupled models explain a large part of the differences in EAF, with the deep convection in the coupled models strongly depending on the equatorial Pacific SST bias. Experiments with a single atmosphere model support the relation between the equatorial Pacific atmospheric mean state, the SST bias and the EAF. An implemented cold SST bias in the observed SST forcing weakens deep convection and reduces cloud cover in the rising branch of the PWC, causing weaker EAF. A warm SST bias has the opposite effect. Our results elucidate how biases in the mean state of the PWC and equatorial SST hamper a realistic simulation of the EAF.     

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.