Marine environment as an ecological-economic system

On the basis of systems analysis of the consumption and reproduction of marine resources, a conceptual model for the management of maritime-industrial complexes is suggested. The management of such complexes calls for simulation experiments, with involvement of models for the respective marine ecological-economic systems. A new method of dynamic-stochastic modelling is suggested to generate models synthesizing the expert-and-analytical approach to the estimation of the system's dynamic operator with the method of Kalman's adaptive filtration. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 53–63, September–October, 2004.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to cover date.     

A method for the statistical prediction of hydrological and chemical fields,exemplified by computation of the oxygen content in the Sea of Azov surface layer

To predict the concentration of oxygen in the Sea of Azov, the paper relies on the decomposition of this parameter by a system of empirical orthogonal functions and on the prediction of decomposition coefficients via a grouped consideration of arguments. This method is applied to construct an optimal model for predicting the spatial distribution of oxygen in various seasons of the year, using a data on the mean seasonal dissolved oxygen concentration compiled at 32 reference stations occupied from 1958 to 1988. The experimentally derived numerical data indicate that the method can be effectively used to make short-term predictions. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Monitoring of the large-scale dynamics of the ocean based on the assimilation of satellite data

An examle of satellite monitoring of the large-scale dynamics of the eastern sector of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in April 1990 is considered. As the satellite-derived data, a series of averaged 5-day maps of the remote data on the upper ocean temperature field obtained from satellites of the NOAA series was used. The profundity of the effect of the satellite data is estimated. Recommendations are provided. for selecting the regions most appropriate for rapid analysis of the circulation using satellite data.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.