Dynamic-stochastic model for assimilation of remotely-sensed sea surface temperature data

We consider the possibility of assimilating sea surface temperature data by a combined ocean dynamics model incorporating a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for synoptic variability for the considered ocean area and an integral model block describing the upper mixed layer. Model numerical simulations and experiments involving satellite-derived data are analysed.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Modelling of the Sea of Azov ecosystem

The method of mathematical model self-organization is applied to handle observations of the hydrological, chemical and biological parameters of the Sea of Azov, conducted from 1926 through to 1985, in order to identify model equations of the latter's ecosystem. A set of 43 evolutionary equations have been employed to generate a picture of the ecosystem parameters' continuous variability and to identify relationships between them. Model calculations of the total catch of freshwater fishes, primary productivity, zoobenthos, phytoplankton, and other characteristics have demonstrated their being in good agreement with the observations conducted from 1950 to 1985. A prediction of the ecosystem parameters' evolution for the period from 1985 to 1995 has been made. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Space and time variability of the parameters of ecological economical systems

We propose a procedure for the construction of prognostic models of ecological economical systems based on the combination of dynamical models of natural environments with conceptual models of natural economical complexes. This procedure enables one to study space and time distributions of ecological and economical parameters parallel with the fields of physical, chemical, biological, and other characteristics of the natural environment. With the help of a conceptual model of the “sea-land” natural economical complex in the Sea of Azov used asan example, we show that it is possible to relate the dynamics of the concentrations of pollutants and biological resources of the sea with the economical profitability of fishery and the rates of ecological fines controlling the costs of production. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

On the use of variable exchange coefficients in the algorithm of a four-dimensional analysis of observations

The use of variable exchange coefficients in the telescopic dynamico-stochastic model is suggested. Through the use of data compiled in the course of a transatlantic survey, we show that consideration of the space-time variability of horizontal exchange coefficients helps to improve the quality of hydrophysical field modelling.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin     

Assimilation of the data of observations and adaptive prediction of the natural processes

We propose a dynamical model for the prediction of random components of natural processes. The model is based on the system concept of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-model) and contains dynamic equations for the coefficients of influence adapted to the correlations existing in the predicted processes. To improve the accuracy of predictions, we consider two possible schemes of assimilation of the data of observations in the equations of the ABC-model, namely, the Kolmogorov and Kalman schemes. Both schemes are oriented toward the application of sample correlation coefficients for the prediction of time series of measurements and, hence, take into account the nonstationarity of actual natural processes. We present some examples of prediction of the simulated time series clarifying the algorithms of assimilation of the data of observations. A conclusion is made that the methods of systems modeling and adaptive prediction of random processes by the ABC-method are quite promising.     

The reconstruction of the structure of hygrophysical fields, using incomplete data

The paper suggests a method for reconstructing the spatial structure of hydrological elements, using incomplete information, with the noise component being concurrently filtered. This problem is of vital relevance in the context of conducting satellite observations when the observed area is covered by clouds. To solve the problem, the fields are decomposed by the system of empirical orthogonal functions. The reconstructed fields acquired by the different techniques using model andin situ data are then compared. As an example, the paper examines the reconstruction of the oxygen field, using the survey data compiled during the summer of 1986. The computations allow a deduction that the method at issue may be efficiently employed to handle the problems of field reconstruction, using scarce data, with the purpose of generating a data base on spatio-temporal variability of diverse environment components. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Features of Variations in the F2-Layer Critical Frequency During the Sudden Stratospheric Warnings of 1966–2009 According to Data from Kaliningrad and Irkutsk Stations

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - A study of the wave changeability in the F2-layer critical frequency over Kaliningrad (54.6° N, 20° E) and Irkutsk (53° N, 103° E) stations during...     

Dynamic model of integrated processes in the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

For the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea studied as an example, we construct a dynamic model of the integrated processes of development of phyto-and zooplankton, larvae, and fish and the variations of the concentrations of biogenic elements and detritus. The data of many-year observations over these processes are generalized and the scheme of genetic relations between these processes is proposed. By the method of adaptive balance of causes, we establish the dynamic model equations of the ecosystem. It is proposed to use the method of analytic hierarchy process for the estimation of the coefficients of the model with regard for the degree of influence of external and internal factors on the dynamics of the ecosystem. Some examples of analysis of various scenarios of the development of integrated processes running in the ecosystem are presented and their comparison with the data of many-year observations in this region is performed. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 48–69, July–August, 2007.     

Integrated Management of Economic-Ecological Sea-Land Systems

We propose an information technology of integrated management of sea-land systems containing 17 correlated biochemical processes and an economic model of industry consuming biological, mineral, and ecological marine resources. Both models are constructed by the method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) and contain intelligent management agents. The technology of integrated management includes the resource rent, environmental-protection taxes, and ecological fines. We consider an example of integrated management for simulated external actions upon the marine ecosystem and the land-based economic system. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 59–76, July–August, 2005.