Towards sustainable fisheries subsidies: Entering a new round of reform under the Common Fisheries Policy

On 22 April 2009 the European Commission published its ‘Green Paper on the Reform of the Common Fisheries Policy’. The Green Paper points out a contradiction in policy, noting on one hand that public financial support to the Community's fisheries sector is substantial, but on the other hand such support is often incompatible with other Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) objectives, particularly the need to reduce overcapacities. Providing an analytical framework to better understand the effects of subsidies as well as an overview of existing funding schemes under the CFP, this article aims at answering some of the questions posed by the European Commission within its Green Paper. Answers are based on two ideas: the exploitation of marine capture resources ultimately depends on the level of available fish stocks and that a large share of subsidies fuels the race to fish by inducing investment incentives for the fisheries sector. Policies that have ignored this tend to encourage inefficient and unsustainable fishing as well as the misallocation of public funds. Although support schemes under the CFP have changed in recent years, some problematic support schemes persist. A future reform will have to continue the course taken towards sustainable and efficient approaches to supporting the fisheries industry.     

A simple model of seasonal open ocean convection

 Aspects of open ocean deep convection variability are explored with a two-box model. In order to place the model in a region of parameter space relevant to the real ocean, it is fitted to observational data from the Labrador Sea. A systematic fit to OWS Bravo data allows us to determine the model parameters and to locate the position of the Labrador Sea on a stability diagram. The model suggests that the Labrador Sea is in a bistable regime where winter convection can be either “on” or “off ”, with both these possibilities being stable climate states. When shifting the surface buoyancy forcing slightly to warmer or fresher conditions, the only steady solution is one without winter convection.  We then introduce short-term variability by adding a noise term to the surface temperature forcing, turning the box model into a stochastic climate model. The surface forcing anomalies generated in this way induce jumps between the two model states. These state transitions occur on the interannual to decadal time scale. Changing the average surface forcing towards more buoyant conditions lowers the frequency of convection. However, convection becomes more frequent with stronger variability in the surface forcing. As part of the natural variability, there is a non-negligible probability for decadal interruptions of convection. The results highlight the role of surface forcing variability for the persistence of convection in the ocean.     

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4×CO₂ scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.     

Stepwise,earthquake-driven coastal subsidence in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (Sundarbans) since the eighth century deduced from submerged in situ kiln and mangrove remnants

Natural Hazards - This study reconstructs the coastal subsidence over the past 1300 years in a mangrove region along the coast of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, an area not affected...     

20th-CENTURY CHANGES OF TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF CENTRAL EUROPE

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 29 low-lying and mountain stations of 7 countries in Central Europe were analyzed. The analysis of the annual variation of diurnal temperature range helps to distinguish unique climatic characteristics of high and low altitude stations. A comparison of the time series of extreme daily temperatures as well as mean temperature shows a good agreement between the low-lying stations and the mountain stations. Many of the pronounced warm and cold periods are present in all time series and are therefore representative for the whole region. A linear trend analysis of the station data for the period 1901–1990 (19 stations) and 1951–1990 (all 29 stations) shows spatial patterns of similar changes in maximum and minimum daily temperatures and diurnal temperature range. Mountain stations show only small changes of the diurnal temperature range over the 1901–1990 period, whereas the low-lying stations in the western part of the Alps show a significant decrease of diurnal temperature range, caused by strong increase of the minimum temperature. For the shorter period 1951–1990, the diurnal temperature range decreases at the western low-lying stations, mainly in spring, whereas it remains roughly constant at the mountain stations. The decrease of diurnal temperature range is stronger in the western part than in the eastern part of the Alps.     

Sediment recycling and adjustment of deposition during deglacial drowning of a low-accumulation shelf (NW Iberia)

Based on a well-established stratigraphic framework and 47 AMS-¹⁴C dated sediment cores, the distribution of facies types on the NW Iberian margin is analysed in response to the last deglacial sea-level rise, thus providing a case study on the sedimentary evolution of a high-energy, low-accumulation shelf system.     

Effects of differential hillslope‐scale water retention characteristics on rainfall–runoff response at the Landscape Evolution Observatory

Hillslopes turn precipitation into runoff and thus exert important controls on various Earth system processes. It remains difficult to collect reliable data necessary for understanding and modeling these Earth system processes in real catchments. To overcome this problem, controlled experiments are being conducted at the Landscape Evolution Observatory at Biosphere 2, The University of Arizona. Previous experiments have revealed differences in hydrological response between 2 landscapes within Landscape Evolution Observatory, even though both landscapes were designed to be identical. In an attempt to discover where the observed differences stem from, we use a fully 3‐dimensional hydrological model (CATchment HYdrology) to show the effect of soil water retention characteristics and saturated hydraulic conductivity on the hydrological response of these 2 hillslopes. We also show that soil water retention characteristics can be derived at hillslope scale from experimental observations of soil moisture and matric potential. It is found that differences in soil packing between the 2 landscapes may be responsible for the observed differences in hydrological response. This modeling study also suggests that soil water retention characteristics and saturated hydraulic conductivity have a profound effect on rainfall–runoff processes at hillslope scale and that parametrization of a single hillslope may be a promising step in modeling rainfall–runoff response in real catchments.     

Magnetic fabric evolution in ductile shear zones: examples in metagranites of the Aar Massif (Swiss Central Alps)

The Aar Massif forms part of the polycyclic basement of the External Crystalline Massifs in central Switzerland. Strong heterogeneous Alpine deformation produced a network of broad, anastomosing shear zones, with deformation strongly localized in mylonitic domains. This study investigates the combined effects of high‐strain deformation and synkinematic metamorphism on magnetic fabric evolution in Tertiary shear zones of the Aar granite and Grimsel granodiorite. In transects across several mesoscale shear zones with large strain gradients, magnetic fabric orientations are in excellent agreement with principal strain orientations determined from outcrop fabrics and strain markers. However, the magnitude and shape of the magnetic anisotropy do not change systematically with increasing finite strain, likely as a result of recrystallization and metamorphism. The overall pattern of steeply dipping fabrics is consistent with the main shortening stage of regional Alpine kinematics, while some mylonite structures reflect a local component of dextral shearing.     

Evolution of the Galicia Interior Basin over the last 60 ka: sedimentary processes and palaeoceanographic implications

The Galicia Interior Basin (GIB; NW Iberian Peninsula) is located near a critical transition between the subtropical (temperate) and subpolar (cold) gyres of the North Atlantic. It therefore witnesses oceanographic changes driven by global climatic events. This study reports on the recent (latest Pleistocene) sedimentary, palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic history of the basin. We integrated analysis of deep‐sea sediment cores retrieved from an E–W transect across the GIB. The analysis indicated three types of sedimentary processes recording glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 2–4) and deglacial events: along‐slope bottom currents (forming contourite deposits), pelagic and hemipelagic sedimentation, and gravitational dislocation. Variation in depositional patterns and sedimentation rates indicate distinctive transport (along‐slope and down‐slope) and depositional processes. These in turn reflect climatic and oceanographic drivers. We interpret changes in sea level from core evidence showing changes in sediment supply. The cores exhibited conspicuous sedimentary evidence of Heinrich events (HEs). The stratigraphic intervals associated with HEs showed significant lateral variation. We suggest that the lateral variation may result from the development of an oceanographic boundary between surface water masses with different temperature and salinity parameters or changes in surface currents which may have introduced relatively warmer water into the GIB during the last glacial period.