强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。     

柳州夏季一次雨夹冰雹的天气过程分析

利用常规地面观测、柳州地面自动站、FY-2C卫星、柳州和河池的多普勒天气雷达观测资料,对2014年7月22日夏季柳州发生的一次短暂的雨夹冰雹天气过程的环境条件和雷达产品特征进行分析,主要结果如下:受副高和台风外围气流影响,柳州全市出现了37℃以上大范围的高温天气,天气尺度和中尺度的上升运动较弱,局地性质的加热作用导致大气的不稳定度加强而诱发对流云系进一步发展造成的;雷达显示的冰雹云的最大基本反射率因子为65d BZ,强回波区面积小;风速的切变和辐合上升运动小,0℃层高度较高,不利于对流系统的发展和维持。     

On pulsar-driven mass ejection in low-mass X-ray binaries

There is accumulating evidence for mass ejection in low-mass X-ray binaries(LMXBs)driven by radio pulsar activity during X-ray quiescence.We consider the condition for mass ejection by comparing the radiation pressure from a millisecond pulsar,and the gas pressure at the inner Lagrange point or at the surrounding accretion disk.We calculate the critical spin period of the pulsar below which mass ejection is allowed.Combining with the evolution of the mass transfer rate,we present constraints on the orbital ...     

虚拟天文台数据访问系统(VO-DAS)任务调度设计与实现

为解决异地、异构、海量天文数据无缝透明地统一访问,中国虚拟天文台(China-VO)研究小组自主设计并开发了一套解决方案——虚拟天文台数据访问系统(VO-DAS)。着重从执行流程、设计模式、Session机制、生命周期、资源销毁、异常处理等模块详细阐述了该系统的任务调度设计。为了验证该系统的可行性和性能,最后描述了多个天文科学范例。     

谈滑坡勘察中的几个地下水压力问题

鉴于目前在滑坡勘察中对地下水压力问题尚有一些不够明确和难以确定之处,本文首先讨论地下水压力的分类及其概念,并简要叙述地下水压力的时、空变化和影响因素;然后结合实例分析不同条件下地下水压力在滑坡形成中的实际效用,并就地下水压力的确定问题发表了看法。     

新疆乌恰康苏地区构造地貌与景观生态格局研究

新疆乌恰康苏地区位于西昆仑山与西南天山对冲作用形成的盆山耦合带,其构造地貌具有显著的山地-平原分布格局特征.文章以"3S"技术为基础进行构造地貌填图,划分新疆乌恰康苏地区的景观类型,研究构造地貌对该区域景观生态格局的影响.采用垂向山地-平原构造地貌为指标,划分5个景观类;以土地利用类型+植被覆盖为指标,划分6个景观型;...     

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

环渤海葡萄涝渍指标构建及风险评估

以中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区为研究对象,利用1980-2019年研究区域内303个气象站逐日气象资料、葡萄发育期资料和葡萄涝渍灾情资料,基于相对湿润度方法构建葡萄逐日涝渍指数M5i,以历史灾情反演和灾变过程解析为主线,采用正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t分布区间估计等方法,构建适用于中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区的葡萄涝...     

The evolution of the z distribution of normal neutron stars in the Galaxy

Under the two initial 1‐D one parameter velocity distribution forms (one is normal, the other is exponential), the z direction scale height evolution of normal neutron stars in the Galaxy is studied by numerical simulation. We do statistics for the cases at different time segments, also do statistics for the cumulative cases made of each time segment. The results show in the cumulative cases the evolution curves of the scale heights are smoother than in the each time segment, i.e., the cumulation improve the signal‐to‐noise ratio. Certainly the evolution cases are different at different Galactic disk locations, which also have very large difference from the average cases in the whole disk. In the initial stages of z evolution of normal neutron stars, after the beginning transient states, the cumulative scale heights increase linearly with time, and the cumulative scale height increasing rates have linear relationship with the initial velocity distribution parameters, which have larger fluctuation in the vicinity of the Sun than in the whole disk. We utilize the linear relationship of the cumulative scale height increasing rates vs. the initial velocity distribution parameters in the vicinity of the Sun to make comparison with the observation near the Sun. The results show if there is no magnetic decay, then the deserved initial velocity parameters are obvious lower than the present well known results from some authors; whereas if introducing magnetic decay, for the 1‐D normal case we can make consistence among concerning results using magnetic decay time values which are supported by some authors, while for the 1‐D exponential case the results show the lackness of young pulsar samples in the larger z in the vicinity of the Sun (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Scientific Objectives of China-Russia Joint Mars Exploration Program YH-1

Compared with other planets, Mars is a planet most similar with the earth and most possible to find the extraterrestrial life on it, and therefore especially concerned about by human beings. In recent years, some countries have launched Mars probes and announced their manned Mars exploration programs. China has become the fifth country in the world to launch independently artificial satellites, and the third country able to carry out an independent manned space program. However, China is just at the beginning of deep space explorations. In 2007, China and Russia signed an agreement on a joint Mars exploration program by sending a Chinese micro-satellite Yinghuo-1 (YH-1) to the Mars orbit. Once YH-1 enters its orbit, it will carry out its own exploration, as well as the joint exploration with the Russian Phobos-Grunt probe. This paper summarizes the scientific background and objectives of YH-1 and describes briefly its payloads for realizing these scientific objectives. In addition, the main exploration tasks of YH-1 and a preliminary prospect on its exploration results are also given.