Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Novel integrated approaches for predicting the compressibility of clay using cascade forward neural networks optimized by swarm- and evolution-based algorithms

Acta Geotechnica - Soft soils are considered as disadvantages in construction, especially in clay layers. It requires many advanced techniques to treat the soft soils before construction, aiming to...     

Under-ice measurements of suspended particulate matters using ADCP and LISST-Holo

Ocean Science Journal - Using a mooring package comprising an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and holographic imaging system, a 1-day ice camp study was performed under the Arctic sea ice...     

Stanniferrous granites of Vietnam: Rb-Sr and Ar-Ar isotope age,composition, sources,and geodynamic formation conditions

Doklady Earth Sciences - Stanniferrous granite-leucogranite massifs in Vietnam to which the bedrock and placer commercial deposits of cassiterite are associated (Timtuc etc.) are of late Cretaceous...     

Simple monitoring method for precaution of landslides watching tilting and water contents on slopes surface

A low-cost and simple monitoring method for early warning of landslides is proposed. To detect abnormal deformation of a slope, this method employs a tilt sensor in place of an extensometer on the slope surface. In order to examine the relevance of measuring rotation angle on a slope surface by tilt sensor, model tests were conducted, and rotation on the slope surface was observed together with slide displacement along the surface. The rotation data responded 30 min before failure in a model test, which could be useful as a signal for early warning. However, the behavior of rotation before failure varies from case to case, and thus, criteria to issue warning should be defined more carefully. For a model slope made of uniform loose sand, measurement of slide displacement along the slope surface is sensitive to failure at the toe, while the measurement of rotation on the slope surface is useful to detect the development of progressive failure upward along the slope. Wireless sensor units with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor were also examined on a real slope in Kobe City, and a long-term monitoring was attempted. A simple but possible way to define the criteria of judgment to issue warning can be proposed based on combination of data obtained by the tilt sensors and volumetric water content sensors.     

The worldwide character of the 1969–1970 impulse of the secular acceleration rate

This paper continues earlier studies to ascertain whether the distribution of the 1969–1970 jump of the secular variation rate has a worldwide character. The geometry of the jump presents some similarities with the geometry of the secular variation itself. We give a new estimation of the westward drift rate and information about spatial and temporal variations of the secular variation field.     

Electromagnetic fields in a steel-cased borehole

The development of an electromagnetic numerical modelling scheme for a magnetic dipole in an arbitrary casing segment in an inhomogeneous conductivity background has been difficult, due to the very high electrical conductivity and magnetic permeability contrasts between the steel casing and the background medium. To investigate the effect of steel casing efficiently, we have developed an accurate but simple finite‐element modelling scheme to simulate electromagnetic fields in a medium of cylindrically symmetric conductivity structures. In order to preserve the cylindrical symmetry in the resulting electromagnetic fields, a horizontal loop current source is used throughout. One of the main advantages of the approach is that the problem is scalar when formulated using the azimuthal electric field, even if the casing is both electrically conductive and magnetically permeable. Field calculations have been made inside the cased borehole as well as in another borehole which is not cased. Careful analyses of the numerical modelling results indicate that the anomaly observed in a cross‐borehole configuration is sensitive enough to be used for tomographic imaging.     

A simplified methodology for mapping groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk, and its first application in a tropical karst area, Vietnam

A simplified methodology for mapping groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk is proposed, and the first application of the methodology, in a mountainous tropical karst area, is presented. The test site is the Tam Duong area, one of the poorest and remotest regions in northern Vietnam. The methodology requires a minimum of input data, which makes it particularly useful for developing countries. Vulnerability is assessed on the basis of two factors, which take into account the duality of recharge processes in karst aquifer systems: the overlying layers (O) and the concentration of flow (C). The risk map is obtained by putting together the vulnerability map and a simplified hazard assessment. The resulting maps provide a basis for groundwater protection zoning and land-use planning. Tracer tests and microbiological data confirmed the vulnerability and risk assessment in the test site.