A search for posteclipse brightening of Io in 1973. I

Eight eclipse reappearances of the innermost Galilean satellite, Io, were observed during the fall of 1973. The measurements were made using photometers specially designed to cope with the problem of scattered light from Jupiter. Posteclipse brightening of Io was not detected and, if present, was less than our estimated detection threshold of about 0.02 mag.     

Spatial Pair-Copula Modeling of Grade in Ore Bodies: A Case Study

A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model.     

Making ends meet, in the household and on the planet

Policy-making in relation to sustainable development is usually at the national (or, in relation to climate change, the global) level, yet the consumption it seeks to modify takes place at the household level. If households all ‘made ends meet’ in the same way then the much-relied upon notion of per capita consumption would be valid and we could rely on ‘top-down’ modelling to guide policy. Cultural Theory, however, predicts that there are five socially viable ways of making ends meet, and that all of them will be found (in varying proportions) within any nation. This prediction has been tested on a sample of 220 British households and shown to be well supported. Top-down modelling, it is argued, has to give way to a constructive interplay between the reflexive policy-maker and a plurally responsive citizenry. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach

Extreme flood events have detrimental effects on society, the economy and the environment. Widespread flooding across South East Queensland in 2011 and 2013 resulted in the loss of lives and significant cost to the economy. In this region, flood risk planning and the use of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood is severely limited by short gauging station records. On average, these records are 42 years in Eastern Australia and many have a poor representation of extreme flood events. The major aim of this study is to test the application of an alternative method to estimate flood frequency in the form of the Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information of extreme flood events. In order to better define and constrain a working definition of an extreme flood, an Australian Envelope Curve is also produced from available gauging station data. Results indicate that the PREC method shows significant changes to the larger recurrence intervals (≥100 years) in gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.     

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.     

Long-term trends in cetacean occurrence during the annual sardine run off the Wild Coast,South Africa

During the austral winter, cetaceans and other apex predators follow the annual northeastward movement of shoaling sardines, known as the sardine run, along the southeast coast of South Africa, including a 400-km stretch called the Wild Coast. In total, 131 opportunistic aerial surveys were conducted between May and July, from 1996 to 2014, to monitor sardine movement. Cetacean-sighting data from these surveys were analysed, focusing on long-term trends in frequencies of the cetaceans. In total, 630 sightings involving five cetacean species were recorded: 268 (approximately 32 400 individuals) of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin Tursiops aduncus, 108 (approximately 79 400 individuals) of long-beaked common dolphin Delphinus capensis, 242 (approximately 670 individuals) of humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae, 1 (two individuals) of southern right whale Eubalaena australis, and 11 (16 individuals) of Bryde’s whale Balaenoptera edeni. The occurrence of common dolphins, typically associated with sardines, decreased significantly in average group size over the study period (p = 0.0343); bottlenose dolphins, considered generalist feeders, demonstrated no such trend (p = 0.916). Humpback whales were most frequently sighted between 2010 and 2014, and with significantly larger groups observed towards the end of the study period (p = 0.0121). For all these species, more sightings were made inside than outside of marine protected areas (>70% of the dolphin species, and >65% of the humpback whales), both pre- and post-2005 (from 2005 the size of the survey area increased). The results indicate that movements of the common dolphin may be employed as a proxy for sardine occurrence. Long-term trends evident in the data also demonstrate the importance of this coastal region for bottlenose dolphins as well as use as a migratory corridor for humpback whales.     

Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Modeling of Ice Fog in Interior Alaska Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

An ice microphysics parameterization scheme has been modified to better describe and understand ice fog formation. The modeling effort is based on observations in the Sub-Arctic Region of Interior Alaska, where ice fog occurs frequently during the cold season due to abundant water vapor sources and strong inversions existing near the surface at extremely low air temperatures. The microphysical characteristics of ice fog are different from those of other ice clouds, implying that the microphysical processes of ice should be changed in order to generate ice fog particles. Ice fog microphysical characteristics were derived with the NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler during strong ice fog cases in the vicinity of Fairbanks, Alaska, in January and February 2012. To improve the prediction of ice fog in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, observational data were used to change particle size distribution properties and gravitational settling rates, as well as to implement a homogeneous freezing process. The newly implemented homogeneous freezing process compliments the existing heterogeneous freezing scheme and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals than the original Thompson scheme. The size distribution of ice crystals is changed into a Gamma distribution with the shape factor of 2.0, using the observed size distribution. Furthermore, gravitational settling rates are reduced for the ice crystals since the crystals in ice fog do not precipitate in a similar manner when compared to the ice crystals of cirrus clouds. The slow terminal velocity plays a role in increasing the time scale for the ice crystals to settle to the surface. Sensitivity tests contribute to understanding the effects of water vapor emissions as an anthropogenic source on the formation of ice fog.     

Estimating ventilation time scales using overturning stream functions

A simple method for estimating ventilation time scales from overturning stream functions is proposed. The stream function may be computed using either geometric coordinates or a generalized vertical coordinate, such as potential density (salinity in our study). The method is tested with a three-dimensional circulation model describing an idealized semi-enclosed ocean basin ventilated through a narrow strait over a sill, and the result is compared to age estimates obtained from a passive numerical age tracer. The best result is obtained when using the stream function in salinity coordinates. In this case, the reservoir-averaged advection time obtained from the overturning stream function in salinity coordinates agrees rather well with the mean age of the age tracer, and the corresponding maximum ages agree very well.