In situ measurements of contributions to the global electrical circuit by a thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil

The global electrical circuit, which maintains a potential of about 280 kV between the earth and the ionosphere, is thought to be driven mainly by thunderstorms and lightning. However, very few in situ measurements of electrical current above thunderstorms have been successfully obtained. In this paper, we present dc to very low frequency electric fields and atmospheric conductivity measured in the stratosphere (30–35 km altitude) above an active thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil. From these measurements, we estimate the mean quasi-static conduction current during the storm period to be 2.5 ± 1.25 A. Additionally, we examine the transient conduction currents following a large positive cloud-to-ground (+ CG) lightning flash and typical − CG flashes. We find that the majority of the total current is attributed to the quasi-static thundercloud charge, rather than lightning, which supports the classical Wilson model for the global electrical circuit.     

Phytoplankton dynamics and cyanobacterial dominance in Murchison Bay of Lake Victoria (Uganda) in relation to environmental conditions

Murchison Bay is a shallow embayment in the north-western part of Lake Victoria, strongly influenced by urban pollution from the Ugandan capital Kampala. Two stations, representing the semi-enclosed innermost part of the bay and the wider outer part of the bay, were sampled in the period from April 2003 to March 2004, in order to assess the phytoplankton community and the nutrient status in the bay. Murchison Bay was highly eutrophic with average concentrations (n=25) of total phosphorous >90 μg L⁻¹ and total nitrogen >1100 μg L⁻¹ in the inner part of the bay. The phytoplankton community was dominated by a variety of cyanobacterial species and diatoms. Cyanobacteria were dominant in the whole bay, whereas diatoms were more abundant in the outer part of the bay. Moreover, the proportion of N-fixing species like Anabaena sp. was higher in the outer part of the bay, whereas species like Microcystis sp. were more abundant in the inner part of the bay. The phytoplankton community, especially in the outer part of the bay, may be influenced by light limitation. Low NO₃-N concentrations in the bay may also indicate a possible N-limitation, thus favouring growth of N-fixing cyanobacteria. The open bay is, however, a complex system, and additional environmental factors and loss processes most likely affect the phytoplankton community.     

Storm-damaged saline-contaminated boreholes as a means of aquifer contamination

Saline water from a storm surge can flow down storm-damaged submerged water supply wells and contaminate boreholes and surrounding aquifers. Using data from conventional purging techniques, aquifer test response analysis, chemical analysis, and regression analysis of chloride/silica (Cl/Si) ratio, equations were derived to estimate the volume of saline water intrusion into a well and a porous media aquifer, the volume of water needed to purge a well shortly following an intrusion event, and the volume of water needed after delay of several or more months, when the saline plume has expanded. Purging time required is a function of volume of water and pumping rate. The study site well is located within a shoreline community of Lake Pontchartrain, St. Tammany Parish, in southeastern Louisiana, United States, which was impacted by two hurricane storm surges and had neither been rehabilitated nor chlorinated prior to our study. Chemical analysis of water samples in fall 2005 and purging of well and aquifer in June 6, 2006, indicated saline water had intruded the well in 2005 and the well and aquifer in 2006. The volume of water needed to purge the study well was approximately 200 casing volumes, which is significantly greater than conventionally used during collection of water samples for water quality analyses.     

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

A Method for Estimating the Cost of CO2 Mitigation through Afforestation

The Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries to use afforestation (theconversion of non-forest landto forest) to meet emissions reduction targets. We present a new method forestimating the cost of CO₂mitigation through afforestation based on econometric models of land use. Landuse models are developed from dataon observed land allocation decisions and quantify the relationship betweenthe share of land in forest and the netreturns to forestry, among other land use determinants. The econometricapproach measures the actual responsesby landowners to observed changes in net returns, in contrast to earlierstudies in which landowner responses aredictated by the researcher. Models are estimated for Maine, South Carolina,and Wisconsin. The estimated modelsare used to simulate subsidies for afforestation, which imply increases inforest area and net reductions inatmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Average cost measures – totalsubsidies divided by total carbon sequestered –are derived for afforestation programs with and without timber harvesting. Theuse of econometric land use modelsin integrated assessments of climate change is explored. We model the effectson land use patterns and the costsof CO₂ mitigation of changes in the net returns to agricultureinduced by climate change.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

Vertical and Horizontal Transport of Energy and Matter by Coherent Motions in a Tall Spruce Canopy

In the framework of the EGER (ExchanGE processes in mountainous Regions) project, the contribution of coherent structures to vertical and horizontal transports in a tall spruce canopy is investigated. The combination of measurements done in both the vertical and horizontal directions allows us to investigate coherent structures, their temporal scales, their role in flux transport, vertical coupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy, and horizontal coupling in the sub-canopy layer. The temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the horizontally distributed systems in the sub-canopy layer are larger than the temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the vertically distributed systems. The flux contribution of coherent structures to the momentum and sensible heat transport is found to be dominant in the canopy layer. Carbon dioxide and latent heat transport by coherent structures increase with height and reach a maximum at the canopy height. The flux contribution of the ejection decreases with increasing height and becomes dominant above the canopy level. The flux fraction transported during the sweep increases with height and becomes the dominant exchange process at the upper canopy level. The determined exchange regimes indicate consistent decoupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy during evening, nighttime and morning hours, whereas the coupled states and coupled by sweep states between layers are observed mostly during the daytime. Furthermore, the horizontal transport of sensible heat by coherent structures is investigated, and the heterogeneity of the contribution of coherent events to the flux transport is demonstrated. A scheme to determine the horizontal coupling by coherent structures in the sub-canopy layer is proposed, and it is shown that the sub-canopy layer is horizontally coupled mainly in the wind direction. The vertical coupling in most cases is observed together with streamwise horizontal coupling, whereas the cross-stream direction is decoupled.