The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.     

The coronal transient of 16 June 1972

On 16 June 1972, the Naval Research Laboratory's coronagraph aboard OSO-7 tracked a huge coronal cloud moving outward from the Sun. Concurrent observations of the inner corona made by the High Altitude Observatory at Mauna Loa showed bifurcation of the underlying coronal structure. Together, these observations can be interpreted as evidence for the stretching of the closed fields into a magnetic bottle, extending to at least eight radii from the center of the Sun.     

High‐pressure phase transitions of α‐quartz under nonhydrostatic dynamic conditions: A reconnaissance study at PETRA III

Hypervelocity collisions of solid bodies occur frequently in the solar system and affect rocks by shock waves and dynamic loading. A range of shock metamorphic effects and high‐pressure polymorphs in rock‐forming minerals are known from meteorites and terrestrial impact craters. Here, we investigate the formation of high‐pressure polymorphs of α‐quartz under dynamic and nonhydrostatic conditions and compare these disequilibrium states with those predicted by phase diagrams derived from static experiments under equilibrium conditions. We create highly dynamic conditions utilizing a mDAC and study the phase transformations in α‐quartz in situ by synchrotron powder X‐ray diffraction. Phase transitions of α‐quartz are studied at pressures up to 66.1 and different loading rates. At compression rates between 0.14 and 1.96 GPa s^?1, experiments reveal that α‐quartz is amorphized and partially converted to stishovite between 20.7 GPa and 28.0 GPa. Therefore, coesite is not formed as would be expected from equilibrium conditions. With the increasing compression rate, a slight increase in the transition pressure occurs. The experiments show that dynamic compression causes an instantaneous formation of structures consisting only of SiO₆ octahedra rather than the rearrangement of the SiO₄ tetrahedra to form a coesite. Although shock compression rates are orders of magnitude faster, a similar mechanism could operate in impact events.     

Geology and impact features of Vargeão Dome,southern Brazil

Abstract– Vargeão Dome (southern Brazil) is a circular feature formed in lava flows of the Lower Cretaceous Serra Geral Formation and in sandstones of the Paraná Basin. Even though its impact origin was already proposed in the 1980s, little information about its geological and impact features is available in the literature. The structure has a rim‐rim diameter of approximately 12 km and comprises several ring‐like concentric features with multiple concentric lineaments. The presence of a central uplift is suggested by the occurrence of deformed sandstone strata of the Botucatu and Pirambóia formations. We present the morphological/structural characteristics of Vargeão Dome, characterize the different rock types that occur in its interior, mainly brecciated volcanic rocks (BVR) of the Serra Geral Formation, and discuss the deformation and shock features in the volcanic rocks and in sandstones. These features comprise shatter cones in sandstone and basalt, as well as planar microstructures in quartz. A geochemical comparison of the target rock equivalents from outside the structure with the shocked rocks from its interior shows that both the BVRs and the brecciated sandstone have a composition largely similar to that of the corresponding unshocked lithologies. No traces of meteoritic material have been found so far. The results confirm the impact origin of Vargeão Dome, making it one of the largest among the rare impact craters in basaltic targets known on Earth.     

Grain boundary processes and development of metamorphic plagioclase

Plagioclase from a progressively metamorphosed granodiorite changes as the metamorphic grade increases. Lower grade plagioclase are chemically inhomogeneous, with zoned rims containing distinct compositional levels of An_0?3, An₁₇, and An₂₅. As grade increases the plagioclase becomes more chemically homogeneous with An_0?3 rims dominating. Microcline inclusions are controlled by internal defects at lower grades and grain boundaries at higher grades. Myrmekite rims are developed at the highest grade. Rims are dependent on surface energy factors and occur at triple points, high angle lattice misfits and other high energy surfaces. At low grades, rims form at plagioclase-plagioclase contacts and at higher grades, at plagioclase-microcline contacts. These changes are due to impurity segregation and grain boundary migration, and an increase of the letter process at higher grades.     

Multi-Source Emission Determination Using an Inverse-Dispersion Technique

Inverse-dispersion calculations can be used to infer atmospheric emission rates through a combination of downwind gas concentrations and dispersion model predictions. With multiple concentration sensors downwind of a compound source (whose component positions are known) it is possible to calculate the component emissions. With this in mind, a field experiment was conducted to examine the feasibility of such multi-source inferences, using four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors arranged in different configurations. Multi-source problems tend to be mathematically ill-conditioned, as expressed by the condition number κ. In our most successful configuration (average κ = 4.2) the total emissions from all sources were deduced to within 10% on average, while component emissions were deduced to within 50%. In our least successful configuration (average κ = 91) the total emissions were calculated to within only 50%, and component calculations were highly inaccurate. Our study indicates that the most accurate multi-source inferences will occur if each sensor is influenced by only a single source. A “progressive” layout is the next best: one sensor is positioned to “see” only one source, the next sensor is placed to see the first source and another, a third sensor is placed to see the previous two plus a third, and so on. When it is not possible to isolate any sources κ is large and the accuracy of a multi-source inference is doubtful.     

Geochemical studies of the SUBO 18 (Enkingen) drill core and other impact breccias from the Ries crater,Germany

Suevite and melt breccia compositions in the boreholes Enkingen and Polsingen are compared with compositions of suevites from other Ries boreholes and surface locations and discussed in terms of implications for impact breccia genesis. No significant differences in average chemical compositions for the various drill cores or surface samples are noted. Compositions of suevite and melt breccia from southern and northeastern sectors of the Ries crater do not significantly differ. This is in stark contrast to the published variations between within‐crater and out‐of‐crater suevites from northern and southern sectors of the Bosumtwi impact structure, Ghana. Locally occurring alteration overprint on drill cores—especially strong on the carbonate‐impregnated suevite specimens of the Enkingen borehole—does affect the average compositions. Overall, the composition of the analyzed impact breccias from Ries are characterized by very little macroscopically or microscopically recognized sediment‐clast component; the clast populations of suevite and impact melt breccia are dominated consistently by granitic and intermediate granitoid components. The Polsingen breccia is significantly enriched in a dioritic clast component. Overall, chemical compositions are of intermediate composition as well, with dioritic‐granodioritic silica contents, and relatively small contributions from mafic target components. Selected suevite samples from the Enkingen core have elevated Ni, Co, Cr, and Ir contents compared with previously analyzed suevites from the Ries crater, which suggest a small meteoritic component. Platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations for some of the enriched samples indicate somewhat elevated concentrations and near‐chondritic ratios of the most immobile PGE, consistent with an extraterrestrial contribution of 0.1–0.2% chondrite‐equivalent.     

A framework of Holocene and Late Pleistocene environmental change in eastern Iran inferred from the dating of periods of alluvial fan abandonment,river terracing,and lake deposition

We review studies of the Holocene and Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of eastern Iran to infer past changes in the environment within this presently arid region. We build a scenario of widespread, and presumably climatically driven, evolution of the landscape through the Holocene. Six sites, covering a 10° range in latitude, indicate a regional abandonment of alluvial fan surfaces at ～10 ± 3 ka, with the younger (～9 ka) end of this age range supported by several of the best-constrained studies. Incision of rivers into the fan surfaces has occurred in discrete stages in the early to mid-Holocene (～9–7 ka) leading to the formation of flights of river terraces. Detailed records of lakebed deposition in the presently arid interior of Iran are rare, though the available data indicate lake highstand conditions at <7.8 ka at South Golbaf in SE Iran and at < 8.7 ± 1.1 ka at the Nimbluk plain in NE Iran. The major periods of Holocene landscape development hence correlate with a period of time where water was more abundant than at present, with incision of rivers into thick alluvial deposits possibly occurring due to a combination of decreased sediment supply and high levels of precipitation, and with the formation of inset river terraces possibly responding to century-scale fluctuations in precipitation. No major geomorphic changes are identified within the later part of the Holocene, from which we infer that increased aridity has slowed evolution of the landscape. A decrease in precipitation in the mid-Holocene may have had a detrimental effect on bronze age societies in eastern Iran as has been inferred elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean region. The pre-Holocene environmental changes in eastern Iran are less well constrained, though there are suggestions of alluvial fan abandonment at 40–60 ka, at ～80 ka, and at ～120 ka.