We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C. 相似文献
Seagrass meadows are often cited as important nursery areas for newly settled red drum even though many estuaries, such as Galveston Bay, Texas, support large numbers of red drum and have limited seagrass cover, suggesting the use of alternate nursery areas. We examined patterns of habitat use for newly settled red drum at six sampling areas in Galveston Bay; two areas had seagrass beds and four areas had no seagrass. We measured densities in different habitat types using epibenthic sleds and enclosure samplers. Peak recruitment of young red drum to the estuary occurred during September through December. Highest densities of new settlers were found in seagrass meadows (primarilyHalodule wrightii), but when seagrass was absent, the highest densities of red drum occurred along theSpartina alterniflora marsh edge interface. Densities were relatively low on nonvegetated bottom away from the marsh edge. We also examined density patterns in other habitat types at selected sampling areas and found no red drum within marsh vegetation away from the marsh edge interface (5 and 10 m into the marsh interior). Oyster reefCrassostrea virginica was sampled using lift nets, and we found no red drum using this habitat, although adjacent seagrass and marsh interface habitats were used. Even though red drum densities in marsh edge were low relative to seagrass, the large areal extent of marshes in the bay complex probably makes marsh edge the most important nursery habitat for red drum in Galveston Bay. 相似文献
The use of Boomer sources for 3D seismic imaging of shallow marine structures was investigated in a feasibility study. Boomers show sufficient stability to be used in multichannel seismic surveys. The acquisition of a high-frequency, densely sampled seismic data volume was successfully performed in the Baltic Sea. A Pleistocene fluvial channel system and shallow gas accumulations were revealed beneath the unconsolidated sediments which constitute the sea-floor in the southern Kiel Bay. 相似文献
When and why are international efforts to solve transboundary river management problems successful? When and why do such efforts fail, and what does success or failure mean? With more than 260 international river basins covering 45% of the Earth's land surface, and with freshwater being humanity's most valuable natural resource, these questions are hardly trivial. Natural scientists and engineers have provided some answers, but they remain far from complete without major input from the social sciences. While technical know-how and innovation are also crucial to successful international river management, success in this context hinges primarily on political processes in which institutional arrangements are designed and implemented. This review essay maintains that social scientists have made considerable progress in this field since 1977, when a landmark book by David Le Marquand on the politics of international river management was published. This progress includes the development of theoretically better informed explanatory models and their evaluation against an increasing amount of empirical information. It provides a solid foundation for proceeding to a larger-scale research effort that involves the analysis of a larger set of empirical cases on the basis of a single explanatory model. 相似文献
The Austrian blackfly fauna were analysed with regard to spatial (ecoregions, bioregions), vertical (altitude classes) and longitudinal zonation characteristics [stream order, biocoenotic (= fish) regions] on the basis of 2600 investigation sites. Of a total of 45 species recorded, Simulium ornatum, S. variegatum, S. argyreatum and S. reptans are the most common and most frequently distributed species, occurring in 60% of the investigated sites. Although the Austrian blackfly fauna seem to be quite well documented (on average one investigation site per 32 km2) the jackknife analyses indicates that there are still some fauna deficits. Whereas the species diversity of the main ecoregions is quite similar, the number of species differs clearly between the bioregions. Within the typological context of the Water Framework Directive, the Austrian Simuliidae confirm the bioregions as the most useful spatial units for river typology. A further optimisation in predicting a target list of blackfly species of a site can be achieved by subdividing the bioregions into either catchment area and altitude classes or into longitudinal zonation types (biocoenotic regions). 相似文献
Geographically or sociologically defined resource management units, such as buffer zones or community resource management territories, seek to harmonize local land–use practices with protected–area management objectives. The geographically restricted nature of these models often results in simplistic representations of society–nature relations over time and space. Conservation areas are misrepresented as ecologically and socially homogeneous, as well as politically neutral. This study examines the limits of a spatially defined conservation and development project designed around the physical geographical unit of the watershed at Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya. It argues that politically motivated violence that has plagued the area since the early 1990s has severely undermined the suitability of such narrowly defined conservation territories. Specifically, the case study points to the permeability of the Lake Nakuru watershed to national and regional political forces that ultimately constrain participation in conservation activities. The spaces of conservation and development must be enlarged to include these extralocal arenas and processes if environmental problems are to be effectively addressed. 相似文献
Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r2 = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r2 = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl−1Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.
Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl−1) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions. 相似文献
Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined. 相似文献