Estimated population mixing by country and risk cohort for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe

 This paper applies a compartmental epidemic model to estimating the mixing relations that support the transfer of HIV infection between risk populations within the countries of Western Europe. To this end, a space-time epidemic model with compartments representing countries with populations specified to be at high (gay men and intravenous drug injectors ever with AIDS) and low (the remainder who are sexually active) risk is described. This model also allows for contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals by both local and international travel. This system is calibrated to recorded AIDS incidence and the best-fit solution provides estimates of variations in the rates of mixing between the compartments together with a reconstruction of the transmission pathway. This solution indicates that, for all the countries, AIDS incidence among those at low risk is expected to remain extremely small relative to their total number. A sensitivity analysis of the low risk partner acquisition rate, however, suggests this endemic state might be fragile within Europe during this century. The discussion examines the relevance of these mixing relationships for the maintenance of disease control. Received: 4 May 2000 / Accepted: 9 July 2000     

Hydrologic inferences from ring widths of flood-damaged trees,Potomac River,Maryland

Year-to-year variability in the ring widths of trees on flood plains along two reaches of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., seems in large part to be related to differences in flood-flow regimes. Trees directly exposed to high flood velocities are damaged more often than sheltered trees and thus exhibit more variable ring-width patterns. The ring-width variability of unsheltered trees on low levels of flood plains is greater than that of trees on high levels, indicating that variability values are positively correlated with flood frequency. Sheltered trees, however, have less variable ring-width patterns than those of unsheltered trees, and variability is not correlated with flood frequency. As a result, ring-width variations may be used to estimate the probability of flood damage along local channel reaches of a stream. Growth responses after hydrologic catastrophies in 1948 and 1972 indicate that rings of flood-plain trees can be used to document the occurrence and crest altitude of high-magnitude floods.     

Untersuchungen am Rhein von schaffhausen bis kaiserstuhl 1938–1939 und 1940–1941

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Hydrogeological and hydrochemical characterization of two karstic discharge areas in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

Two karstic discharge areas, Río Verde (RV) and Ciénega de Cabezas (CC), located in a distance of 80 km to each other are chosen to determine the influence of local variations in geology and climatic condition on water chemistry and to examine if the groundwater, supplying the discharge areas, undergoes the same evolution and has a common source. Both study areas are situated on the carbonate platform Valles-San Luis Potosí and comprise a similar geological setting, but despite of their spatial vicinity the climate is semiarid in RV and humid in CC presenting an important factor on the amount of discharge and the concentrations of ions in the discharge. The investigation encompasses discharge, hydrochemical and physico-chemical parameter evaluations as well as the determination of saturation indices, hydrochemical modelling and water type characterization of surface water samples to derive knowledge of the groundwater systems. Scatterplots and saturation indices were used to proof the influence of lithological variability. Both study areas represent normal alkaline water, marked by high concentrations of calcium and magnesium with varying concentrations of bicarbonate and sulphate. In RV, the water interacts with dolomite rocks and gypsum layers, whereas in CC the dolomite content is depleted and the influence of limestone rocks increases. The climatic impact on the groundwater in RV is noticeable by the increase in ionic concentrations due to higher evaporation. In CC the higher amount of precipitation dilutes the groundwater and causes decreasing ionic concentrations.