A Method for Estimating the Cost of CO2 Mitigation through Afforestation

The Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries to use afforestation (theconversion of non-forest landto forest) to meet emissions reduction targets. We present a new method forestimating the cost of CO₂mitigation through afforestation based on econometric models of land use. Landuse models are developed from dataon observed land allocation decisions and quantify the relationship betweenthe share of land in forest and the netreturns to forestry, among other land use determinants. The econometricapproach measures the actual responsesby landowners to observed changes in net returns, in contrast to earlierstudies in which landowner responses aredictated by the researcher. Models are estimated for Maine, South Carolina,and Wisconsin. The estimated modelsare used to simulate subsidies for afforestation, which imply increases inforest area and net reductions inatmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Average cost measures – totalsubsidies divided by total carbon sequestered –are derived for afforestation programs with and without timber harvesting. Theuse of econometric land use modelsin integrated assessments of climate change is explored. We model the effectson land use patterns and the costsof CO₂ mitigation of changes in the net returns to agricultureinduced by climate change.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

Vertical and Horizontal Transport of Energy and Matter by Coherent Motions in a Tall Spruce Canopy

In the framework of the EGER (ExchanGE processes in mountainous Regions) project, the contribution of coherent structures to vertical and horizontal transports in a tall spruce canopy is investigated. The combination of measurements done in both the vertical and horizontal directions allows us to investigate coherent structures, their temporal scales, their role in flux transport, vertical coupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy, and horizontal coupling in the sub-canopy layer. The temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the horizontally distributed systems in the sub-canopy layer are larger than the temporal scales of coherent structures detected with the vertically distributed systems. The flux contribution of coherent structures to the momentum and sensible heat transport is found to be dominant in the canopy layer. Carbon dioxide and latent heat transport by coherent structures increase with height and reach a maximum at the canopy height. The flux contribution of the ejection decreases with increasing height and becomes dominant above the canopy level. The flux fraction transported during the sweep increases with height and becomes the dominant exchange process at the upper canopy level. The determined exchange regimes indicate consistent decoupling between the sub-canopy, canopy and air above the canopy during evening, nighttime and morning hours, whereas the coupled states and coupled by sweep states between layers are observed mostly during the daytime. Furthermore, the horizontal transport of sensible heat by coherent structures is investigated, and the heterogeneity of the contribution of coherent events to the flux transport is demonstrated. A scheme to determine the horizontal coupling by coherent structures in the sub-canopy layer is proposed, and it is shown that the sub-canopy layer is horizontally coupled mainly in the wind direction. The vertical coupling in most cases is observed together with streamwise horizontal coupling, whereas the cross-stream direction is decoupled.     

On the inclusion of ground-based gravity measurements to the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model: case of the Durzon karst system (Larzac, southern France)

This work examines the relevance of the inclusion of ground-based gravity data in the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model. The analysis is performed for the Durzon karst system (Larzac, France). The first part of the study focuses on the hydrological interpretation of the ground-based gravity measurements. The second part of the study investigates further the information content of the gravity data with respect to water storage dynamics modelling. The gravity-derived information is found unable to either reduce equifinality of the single-objective, discharge-based model calibration process or enhance model performance through assimilation.     

A Study of the Impacts of Freeze–Thaw on Cliff Recession at the Calvert Cliffs in Calvert County,Maryland

The Calvert Cliffs, which form much of the western coastline of the Chesapeake Bay in Calvert County, Maryland, are actively eroding and destabilizing, yielding critical situations for many homes in close proximity to the slope’s crest. Past studies have identified that waves directly interacting with the slope toe control cliff recession; however, where waves do not regularly interact with the slope toe, freeze–thaw controls recession. This study investigated the validity of this second claim by analyzing the recession rate and freeze–thaw behavior of six study sites along the Calvert Cliffs that are not directly affected by waves. While waves do remove failed material from the toe in these regions, freeze–thaw is believed to be the dominant factor driving recession at these sites. Past recession rates were calculated using historical aerial photographs and were analyzed together with a number of other variables selected to represent the freeze–thaw behavior of the Calvert Cliffs. The investigation studied sixteen independent variables and found that over 65 % of recession at these study sites can be represented by freeze–thaw through the following variables: (1) slope aspect, (2) soil freeze–thaw susceptibility, (3) the number of freeze–thaw cycles, and (4) the weighted shear strength. Future mitigation techniques at these sites should focus on addressing these variables. Unmitigated, the Calvert Cliffs will continue to recede until a stable slope angle is reached and maintained.     

Differential uplift on the boundary between the Eastern and the Southern European Alps: Thermochronologic constraints from the Brenner Base Tunnel

The Brenner Base Tunnel will connect Innsbruck (Austria) and Franzensfeste (Italy) by piercing two of the most important fault structures of the Alps: the Periadriatic fault system (PFS) and the Southern limit of Alpine metamorphism (SAM). (U‐Th)/He dating (apatite) and fission‐track analysis (apatite and zircon) on samples taken during excavation reveal a complex pattern of exhumation through time. The results yield temporal constraints for relative vertical block movement and fault activity. Furthermore, they indicate differential uplift of the northern block along the ~E–W striking PFS and allow locating the position of the SAM in the overtilted nappe stack south of the Tauern Window. Our data strongly support, for the first time, an ongoing north‐side‐up movement along this section of the PFS until at least the end of Miocene.     

Fault zone hydrogeology in arid environments: The origin of cold springs in the Wadi Araba Basin,Egypt

The role of faults in controlling groundwater flow in the Sahara and most of the hyper-arid deserts is poorly understood due to scarcity of hydrological data. The Wadi Araba Basin (WAB), in the Eastern Sahara, is highly affected by folds and faults associated with Senonian tectonics and Paleogene rifting. Using the WAB as a test site, satellite imagery, aeromagnetic maps, field observations, isotopic and geochemical data were examined to unravel the structural control on groundwater flow dynamics in the Sahara. Analysis of satellite imagery indicated that springs occur along structurally controlled scarps. Isotopic data suggested that cold springs in the WAB showed a striking similarity with the Sinai Nubian aquifer system (NAS) water and the thermal springs along the Gulf of Suez (e.g., δ¹⁸O = −8.01‰ to −5.24‰ and δD = −53.09‰ to −31.12‰) demonstrating similar recharge sources. The findings advocated that cold springs in the WAB represent a natural discharge from a previously undefined aquifer in the Eastern Desert of Egypt rather than infiltrated precipitation over the plateaus surrounding the WAB or through hydrologic windows from deep crystalline basement flow. A complex role of the geological structures was inferred including: (1) channelling of the groundwater flow along low-angle faults, (2) compartmentalization of the groundwater flow upslope from high-angle faults, and (3) reduction of the depth to the main aquifer in a breached anticline setting, which resulted in cold spring discharge temperatures (13–22°C). Our findings emphasize on the complex role of faults and folds in controlling groundwater flow, which should be taken into consideration in future examination of aquifer response to climate variability in the Sahara and similar deserts worldwide.     

A new approach for measuring surface hydrological connectivity

The development of surface hydrological connectivity is a key determinant of flood magnitude in drylands. Thresholds in runoff response may be reached when isolated runoff-generating areas connect with each other to form continuous links to river channels, enabling these areas to contribute to flood hydrographs. Such threshold behaviour explains observed nonlinearities and scale dependencies of dryland rainfall–runoff relationships and complicates attempts at flood prediction. However, field methods for measuring the propensity of a surface to transmit water downslope are lacking, and conventional techniques of infiltration measurement are often inappropriate for use on non-agricultural drylands. Here, we argue for a reconceptualization of the dryland surface runoff process, suggesting that the downslope transfer of water should be considered alongside surface infiltration; that is, there is a need for the “aggregated” measurement of infiltration and overland flow hydraulics. Surface application of a set volume of water at a standardized rate generates runoff that travels downslope; the distance it travels downslope is determined by infiltration along the flow, integration of flow paths, and flow resistance. We demonstrate the potential of such a combined measurement system coupled with structure-from-motion photogrammetry to identify surface controls on runoff generation and transfer on dryland hillslopes, with vegetation, slope, surface stone cover, and surface roughness all having a significant effect. The measurement system has been used on slopes up to 37° compared with the flat surface typically required for infiltration methods. On average, the field workflow takes ~10–15 min, considerably quicker than rainfall simulation. A wider variety of surfaces can be sampled with relative ease, as the method is not restricted to stone and vegetation-free land. We argue that this aggregated measurement represents surface connectivity and dryland runoff response better than standard hydrological approaches and can be applied on a much greater variety of dryland surfaces.     

Expressions to determine temperatures and emission measures for solar X-ray events from GOES measurements

We have developed expressions which give the effective color temperatures and corresponding emission measures for solar X-ray events observed with instruments onboard any of the GOES satellites. Since 1976, these satellites have been used to monitor continuously the full-Sun X-ray emission in two broadband wavelength intervals (approximately 0.5–4 Å and 1–8 Å) with a time resolution of 3 s. To simulate the solar X-ray input at a variety of plasma temperatures, we used theoretical spectra provided by D. L. McKenzie. These spectra were folded through the wavelength dependent transfer functions for the two GOES detectors as given by Donnelly et al. (1977). The resulting detector responses and their ratio as a function of plasma temperature were then fit with simple analytic curves. Over the entire range between 5 and 30 million degrees, these fits reproduce the calculated color temperatures within 2% and the calculated emission measures within 5%. With the theoretical spectra provided by McKenzie, we can determine similar expressions for any pair of broadband X-ray detectors whose sensitivities are limited to wavelengths between 0.2 and 100 Å.