Improving the simulation of fine-resolution landscape changes by coupling top-down and bottom-up land use and cover changes rules

Modelling land use and cover changes (LUCC) at local and landscape scales simultaneously, in terms of composition and configuration, remains today highly challenging. Agricultural landscapes offer an illustrative context for this purpose. This article presents a modelling platform (DYPAL) able to simulate LUCC at both local (agricultural parcel, farm) and landscape levels by combining LUCC processes with an optimization algorithm. The efficiency of this approach is assessed by comparing it with an approach applying the same LUCC processes without optimization. Simulations have been developed for two representative case studies of temperate intensive agricultural mosaics: (1) neutral landscapes with simple and theoretical rules and (2) observed landscapes with realistic crop successions rules. Results show that this modelling platform improves the simulation of LUCC achieved at fine resolution, although not systematically. Improvements are observed when compared to theoretical farming practices. But, when compared with an observed landscape, it is true for one type of (arable) farms only. Several hypotheses are discussed, such as the fact that farmers possibly do not follow optimized rules. Finally, this study illustrates that the use of several indices is crucial to assess whether a simulated landscape is realistic or not, because it does not rely to the assessment of the predictive power of the model.     

A new pathway for Deep water exchange between the Natal Valley and Mozambique Basin?

Although global thermohaline circulation pathways are fairly well known, the same cannot be said for local circulation pathways. Within the southwest Indian Ocean specifically there is little consensus regarding the finer point of thermohaline circulation. We present recently collected multibeam bathymetry and PARASOUND data from the northern Natal Valley and Mozambique Ridge, southwest Indian Ocean. These data show the Ariel Graben, a prominent feature in this region, creates a deep saddle across the Mozambique Ridge at ca. 28°S connecting the northern Natal Valley with the Mozambique Basin. Results show a west to east change in bathymetric and echo character across the northern flank of the Ariel Graben. Whereby eroded plastered sediment drifts in the west give way to aggrading plastered sediment drift in the midgraben, terminating in a field of seafloor undulations in the east. In contrast, the southern flank of the Ariel Graben exhibits an overall rugged character with sediments ponding in bathymetric depressions in between rugged sub/outcrop. It is postulated that this change in sea-floor character is the manifestation of deep water flow through the Ariel Graben. Current flow stripping, due to increased curvature of the graben axis, results in preferential deposition of suspended load in an area of limited accommodation space consequently developing an over-steepened plastered drift. These deposited sediments overcome the necessary shear stresses, resulting in soft sediment deformation in the form of down-slope growth faulting (creep) and generation of undulating sea-floor morphology. Contrary to previous views, our works suggests that water flows from west to east across the Mozambique Ridge via the Ariel Graben.     

Combination of GPS and VLBI on the observation level during CONT11—common parameters,ties and inter-technique biases

Multi-technique space geodetic analysis software has been developed which allows to combine data on the observation level. In addition to local tie information, site-wise common parameters, i.e., troposphere and clocks, can be estimated with this software. Thus, it will be discussed how common parameters have to be estimated and where biases/offsets need to be taken into account. To test such a novel concept, Global Positioning System (GPS) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data from the CONT11 campaign are being utilized. Since the VLBI baselines of this campaign extend over several thousands of kilometers, GPS data are processed in precise-point positioning mode and satellite orbits and clocks are kept fixed to the IGS final products. From the obtained results, it can be shown that the combination of space geodetic data on the observation level leads to a consistent improvement of station position repeatability as well as nuisance parameters like troposphere estimates. Furthermore, estimation of common parameters (troposphere or clocks) at co-located sites helps to improve the solution further and derive an utmost physically consistent model of the concerned parameters.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

Turbulent flux observations and modelling over a shallow lake and a wet grassland in the Nam Co basin,Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced by climate change. While energy and matter fluxes have been more intensely studied over land surfaces, a large proportion of lakes have either been neglected or parameterised with simple bulk approaches. Therefore, turbulent fluxes were measured over wet grassland and a shallow lake with a single eddy-covariance complex at the shoreline in the Nam Co basin in summer 2009. Footprint analysis was used to split observations according to the underlying surface, and two sophisticated surface models were utilised to derive gap-free time series. Results were then compared with observations and simulations from a nearby eddy-covariance station over dry grassland, yielding pronounced differences. Observations and footprint integrated simulations compared well, even for situations with flux contributions including grassland and lake. The accessibility problem for EC measurements on lakes can be overcome by combining standard meteorological measurements at the shoreline with model simulations, only requiring representative estimates of lake surface temperature.     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

Validation of BALTIMOS precipitation structures using BALTRAD radar data

The comparison of rain areas observed by the radar network BALTRAD and those produced by the model BALTIMOS shows that the model is able to reproduce the rain areas’ basic properties. These are power law distributed frequency distributions as well as lognormal rain area size distributions. The parameters governing these distributions are also matched by power laws evident for the observations and the BALTIMOS data. The distributions also provide evidence that the model produces too many large structures and too little small ones. However, the shape of these structures, represented by their fractal dimension, is well met. The perimeter of the model structures is only slightly smoother than that of the observed ones. The model is also able to reproduce the diurnal cycle of convective activity with emerging and decaying convective cells, though some deficiencies in the timing and the magnitude of the maximum occurrence of rain areas and peaks are evident. Additionally, it was found that the methods developed within this project are a valuable tool to validate BALTIMOS and potentially also other regional climate models.     

The impact of precipitation on speed–flow relationships along a UK motorway corridor

Although the fundamental traffic diagram provides the characteristics of a typical road traffic speed–flow relationship, little consideration has been given to the impact of adverse weather conditions on the relationship and the subsequent impact on local speed–flow. For the first time, this study uses precipitation radar along with a state-of-the art traffic information system to ascertain the relationship between speed–flow and precipitation on a UK transport corridor at the local (junction to junction) scale. It is evident that precipitation causes a significant reduction in speed and maximum flow on many links of the corridor as well as a downward reduction in the overall speed-flow relationship. With increased instances of heavy precipitation predicted in the UK as a result of climate change, these findings highlight the subsequent impact on journey travel times and associated economic costs.