基于气候变化的稻纵卷叶螟在我国的风险区预测与分析

气候条件与病虫害生命活动关系密切,是决定病虫害分布的主要因素之一。稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee)属螟蛾科,是危害水稻的世界性害虫之一。研究表明,其暴发原因与气象因素密切相关,因此有必要分析气候变化影响下该虫适生区的变化。利用稻纵卷叶螟地理分布信息和环境数据,借助最大熵生态位模型(Max Ent)和Arc GIS,评估稻纵卷叶螟"当前时段"的分布状态,预测2020年时段稻纵卷叶螟在我国的风险区变化。结果表明:稻纵卷叶螟在中国的极高风险区为上海、浙江大部、江苏南部、安徽大部、湖北中东部、湖南东部、四川西南部、广西中部等地;高风险区为贵州、广东、福建、江西、重庆、广西大部。2020年时段A1b情景下极高风险区在中国分布范围变化不大,高风险区面积变化亦不明显;A2a情景下分布范围变化显著,浙江、江西、湖北、湖南等省极高风险区面积大幅度减少,高风险区面积显著增加;B2a排放情景下风险区变化情况与A2a情景类似,极高风险区面积明显减少。     

The use of urushiol-titanium chela te polymer as an anticorrosive coating for marine application

-The present paper reports a new type of coating possessing with excellent anticorrosive properties for marine application. The coatings are urushiol-titanium chelate polymer. The present authors list the anticorrosive spectra of the new coating in various chemicals. The chemical structure of the new coating was studied using IR, GPC, DTA and TG techniques. The relationship between chemical structure and anticorrosive properties is also discussed.     

冲绳海槽海底热液活动区玄武岩的矿物学和岩石化学特征及其地质意义

１９９２年５月－１９９２６月对绳海槽热液活动区进行调查采样，对拖网采到的新鲜的玄武岩样品做了斑晶矿物学及岩石化学研究。结果表明，冲绳海槽玄武岩的斑晶矿物主要由橄榄石、单斜辉石、斜方辉石和斜长石组成，副矿物有铬铁尖晶石和磁铁矿，因而将样品定为橄榄玄武岩。     

浑善达克沙地植物群落物种多样性及环境解释

认识沙地植物群落物种多样性及其与环境的关系,对维护沙地生态系统的结构与功能具有重要意义。本研究基于浑善达克沙地83个样地的群落数据及环境数据,通过数量生态学方法对群落物种多样性及其影响因子进行分析,探讨浑善达克沙地物种多样性特征及其环境解释。结果表明：（1）主要群落有榆树（Ulmus pumila）群落、小叶锦鸡儿（Caragana microphylla）群落、黄柳（Salixgordejevii）群落及长梗扁桃（Prunus pedunculata）群落等,其中榆树群落分布在降水和土壤养分都比较高的区域,小叶锦鸡儿群落适生生境为降水较少且土壤贫瘠的区域;影响该区群落分布的主要环境因子依次为生长季降水量、生长季温度、土壤全氮和全钾含量,降水量的差异显著影响群落分布格局。（2）浑善达克沙地植物多样性的分布呈现出一定的规律性变化。物种多样性指数均随经度和海拔的增加而增加;Patrick指数与Shannon-wiener指数随纬度的增加呈现减少的趋势;Simpson指数与Pielou指数随纬度增加而增加;Patrick指数、Simpson指数和Shannon-wiener指数与生长季降水量、土壤有机碳和有效氮含量呈显著正相关,与生长季均温、≥0 ℃积温、生长季风速呈显著负相关,所有环境变量与Pielou指数均无显著相关性。研究结果阐明了浑善达克沙地物种多样性及植物群落分布的规律以及与关键环境因子之间的关系,有利于提高沙地植物多样性和稳定性,增强沙地植被的生态功能。     

基于乡村振兴战略的人居文化环境质量演变驱动机制研究——以长江中游城市群为例

实施乡村振兴战略,必将重塑中国现有乡村人居文化环境格局并形成城乡人居文化融合发展的新格局。在科学界定乡村人居文化环境的基础上,侧重解析长江中游城市群乡村人居文化环境的时空基底;并围绕乡村人居文化环境的质量测度,遴选影响人居文化环境变化的关键人类活动因子,构建由目标层、系统指标层、目标分解层与具体指标层所构成的评价指标体系;综合运用人地关系理论、复杂系统理论、景观生态理论,借助Delphi及AHP法和ArcGIS平台探析2005~2015年长江中游城市群地区的乡村人居文化环境时空演变特征。结果显示：① 长江中游城市群地区的乡村人居文化环境质量呈现差异化上升的趋势。宜昌、长株潭地区的乡村人居文化环境质量一直处于优良级别,武汉、南昌两大省会所辖乡村地区发展迅速,衡阳市、常德市等传统工业基地已由优良等级逐步降为较差或恶劣等级。② 乡村人居文化环境及子系统质量的演变并非完全同步。人居物质文化是人居文化环境系统演变的基础,直接带动了人居制度文化的优先演变,人居精神文化环境滞后于人居物质、制度文化环境的演变。③ 乡村人居文化环境的时空演变由政府体制机制扶持保障力、现代农业产业体系支撑多元主体需求力、农村公共设施服务力“四轮”共同驱动。     

Estimating by inverse modeling the release of radioactive substances (<Superscript>133</Superscript>Xe, <Superscript>131</Superscript>I,and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs) into the atmosphere from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

The estimate of the release of radioactive substances (¹³³Xe, ¹³¹I, and ¹³⁷Cs) into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster is presented. It was obtained using the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model and the data of local ground-based measurements of radiation dose rate. The computation period covers the active phase of the nuclear disaster that lasted 20 days after the tsunami. To get the quantitative characteristics of emissions of radioactive substances, the inverse modeling based on the Bayesian approach is used. The emissions were estimated for three altitudes. The total emissions are equal to 2.1 + 0.4 kg (14 000 + 2700 PBq) for ¹³³Xe, (3.8 + 0.4) x 10^-2 kg (174 + + 18 PBq) for ¹³¹I, and 5.7 + 1.2 kg (18 + 4 PBq) for ¹³⁷Cs that is consistent with the results of other studies. Retrieved emissions were used to provide the forward modeling for mapping the areas of radionuclide deposition. The developed method of retrieving the emission of radioactive substances makes a useful instrument that operationally estimates and localizes the areas of potential pollution in case of nuclear accidents and could be used for making decisions on the population evacuation.     

Assessing the digital filter method for base flow estimation in glacier melt dominated basins

Base flow is an important component of streamflow. Although the simple digital filter method is widely used for base flow separation, the applicability in alpine rivers mainly dominated by glacier melt has not been described in detail. To assess and improve the performance of base flow estimates using the filter method for catchments dominated by glacier melt, the enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to obtain the estimates of streamflow and base flow for three catchments with different glacier melt contribution in arid and cold Northwestern China. The digital filter is then applied to the simulated streamflow to separate base flow and assess how well the base flow by the filter method matches these obtained using the SWAT model. In order to obtain the best match between the base flow by the filter method and those using the SWAT model, the linear regression model is used to estimate the relation between the filtered base flow and the glacier melt. It was found that the filtered base flow was matched well with base flow using the SWAT model during the low‐flow period. However, the base flow based on the digital filter method was overestimated during the high‐flow period, especially for the Manas River and Kumarik River. The base flow indexes by the digital filter estimates were 2.9%, 33.3% and 100% larger than those of the model method for the Gongnaisi River, Manas River and Kumarik River, respectively. The differences are larger with bigger glacier melt contribution. The performance of the digital filter is affected by the glacier melt, and it can be improved significantly by the combination of filtered base flow and the glacier melt. The base flow indexes by the improved filter are 1.5%, 4.4% and 10.7% larger than those of the model method for the Gongnaisi River, Manas River and Kumarik River, respectively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川8.0级地震北川县城区灾害调查与分析

2008年5月12日发生了汶川8．0级特大地震,震后作者深入地震重灾区开展了震害现场调查工作。利用现场调查得到的第一手资料,分析了极震区北川县城区的震害现象,发现山坡和河岸滑坡、断层地表破裂以及柔底层结构底层破坏所导致的结构严重破坏和倒塌是城区的主要震害现象,同时看到仍然有一些砌体结构建筑震害较轻,处于轻微或中等破坏,甚至基本完好状态。这些震害现象展示了山区地震灾害的基本特征和复杂性。     

On the warm/cold regime shift in the South China Sea: Observation and modeling study

Remote sensing data sets and a high-resolution three-dimensional regional ocean model were utilized to investigate the shifting of warm/cold regime and the associated sea level variation in the South China Sea (SCS) during 2000–2003. Both the altimetry data and the model results showed an increase in the sea level (warm phase) followed by an abrupt decrease (cold phase) in the SCS during 2000–2003. Heat budget calculations performed with the model revealed excess heat advection from the western Pacific warm pool into the SCS during the warm phase than the cold phase. The warm phase, which occurred during La Niña episodes, resulted from the intrusion of abnormally warmer western Pacific water that increased the heat content and thus sea level in the SCS. The cold phase, which occurred during El Niño episodes, was triggered by a reduction in the net atmospheric heat flux followed by cold water advection into the SCS. Decrease in the rate of precipitation minus evaporation (P?E) also accounted for the falling of sea level during cold phase. The present study integrated the available remote sensing data and advanced numerical model to identify the time-dependent three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic forcing that are important in governing the warm/cold regime shift in the SCS.     

深源地震机理的回顾:现状与问题

深源地震(deep earthquakes)对于研究地球内部结构及板块的运动、动力学机制等起着重要的作用。从和达清夫首次发现深源地震至今80多年的时间里深源地震得到了广泛关注,获得大批高质量的成果。但是,其成因机制至今仍然是未解之谜。目前,大家广泛接受以脱水脆裂为中源地震的成因机制,反裂隙断层为深源地震的成因机制。剪切失稳等机制也能对中源与深源地震的成因做出较好的解释,但仍需进一步的实验研究。中国东北珲春等地区位于环太平洋地震带上,也是中国唯一存在的深源地震带。对地表地质构造、矿物岩石物理学、深部探测和高温高压实验及数值模拟分析的综合研究是解决深源地震机制问题的有效途径。加强中国东北深源地震机理与西太平洋板块俯冲的研究,对进一步认识我国东部大地构造格局演化有着重要的深部背景意义。