Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

A remarkable example of a Late Jurassic shallow-water ophiuroid assemblage from the Swiss Jura Mountains

Although much effort has been put into attempts to unravel the Mesozoic ophiuroid fossil record, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the geological history of family-level compositions of brittle star assemblages. Here, we describe new ophiuroid material from the Late Oxfordian Bure Member as exposed in a construction site along the federal Highway A16 (Transjurane Highway) near Boncourt–Queue au Loup (Swiss Jura Mountains). The remains are exceptionally well preserved and partially articulated, enabling detailed morphological observations at a level comparable to Recent material. Three species are identified; they are here shown to display unequivocal affinities with extant ophiuroid lineages. The assemblage comprises a new ophiacanthid genus and species, Juracantha hottingeri, which is closely related to extant Ophientrema, an ophiolepidid close to extant Ophiozonella described here as a new genus and species, Eozonella bergeri, and a species previously described as Ophiacantha? francojurassica, which is here reassigned to the extant ophionereidid genus Ophiodoris. The assemblage was found in association with Nanogyra oyster buildups encrusted by serpulids and associated with partially-articulated crinoids, deposited in a shallow subtidal setting. Its family level composition is highly unusual with respect to modern equivalents, and instead is reminiscent of modern bathyal assemblages.     

‘White cranes fly over black cranes’: The longue durée of rural–urban migration in Vietnam

The changing nature of rural–urban migration, in the context of transition economies of East and Southeast Asia, is usually interpreted as an outcome of structural transformation, while the longue durée of these migration flows tends to be neglected. Adopting a historical perspective, supported by the ’migration as resistance’ approach, this paper examines the changes in rural–urban migration dynamics in Vietnam from the 1950s to 2010 in relation to the country’s political and economic reforms (Ð?i M?i). Drawing on a case study of female migration between Phu Khe and Hanoi, it analyses how migrants resist and undermine state control over population mobility in order to pursue their movement and migration, and how they develop their migration networks over time. By doing so, the paper highlights a gradual process of the changing nature of rural–urban migration in which migrants themselves, through their resistance to governance of mobility and their establishment of migration networks prior to Ð?i M?i, play an important role.     

越南西北部莱州地区新生代煌斑岩地球化学特征及其成因

越南西北部菜州地区出露的新生代煌斑岩岩脉对理解特提斯造山带东段的深部岩石圈特征和演化具有重要的地质意义.本文报道莱州地区煌斑岩的元素地球化学和Sr-Nd-Pb同位素组成特征,探讨其岩石成因.该地区煌斑岩属于钙碱性,钾质-超钾质煌斑岩特征.地球化学特征对比表明,菜州地区煌斑岩与哀牢山断裂带碱性岩具有相似的地球化学特征,但与海南和越南南部火山岩存在明显差异.分析结果表明,煌斑岩具有高的87Sr/86Sr比值、低143Nd/144Nd比值和高放射性成因Pb同位素组成特征.岩石的微量元素组成特征指示,形成煌斑岩的地幔源区可能经历过流体交代作用或沉积物组分的加入.低208Pb*/206Pb*比值暗示地幔源区富集事件是近期发生的,可能与晚古生代-早中生代印支地块向扬子地块俯冲事件有关.     

Correlating mass physical properties with ALOS reflectance spectra for intertidal sediments from the Ba Lat Estuary (northern Vietnam): an exploratory laboratory study

Characterization of the sediment composition of tidal flats and monitoring of their spatiotemporal changes has become an important part of the sustainable management of coastal environments. To accurately classify sediments through remote sensing, a comprehensive understanding of sediment reflectance spectra is indispensable. The present laboratory-based study explores the performance of the high spatial resolution (10?×?10 m) Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) launched in 2006. Relationships between reflectance spectra (bands 1 to 4) and four typical mass physical properties were investigated under wet and dry experimental conditions for intertidal sediments sampled near the Ba Lat Estuary in northern Vietnam. Reflectance in the near-infrared region corresponding to ALOS band 4 (0.76–0.89 μm) was found (1) to have a strong negative correlation with sand content (dry wt%) under both wet and dry conditions (linear correlation coefficient r?=?–0.7859 and –0.8094, respectively), (2) to increase with decreasing relative water content (%) in a given sediment type (r?=?–0.7748 to –0.9367 for mud, sandy mud, muddy sand, and sand), (3) to have a positive correlation with organic matter content (r?=?0.7610 and 0.6460 under wet and dry conditions for contents >0.20 dry wt%), and (4) to be insignificantly correlated with mineral composition assessed in terms of contents (wt%) of quartz, clay minerals, and mica group minerals. Positive relationships between reflectance and water content for the pooled data of all sediment types (r?=?0.6395) or organic matter content contrast with previous findings, and can be attributed to close interrelationships between these properties and the predominance of sand content as controlling factor of reflectance. This study clarifies that ALOS band 4 provides the most useful imagery for intertidal monitoring because its reflectance, as simulated using the laboratory data, shows the strongest correlation with sand content. In a next step, these experimental findings should be verified by identifying the reflectance relationships at satellite image scales, and also considering the effects of other tidal flat features on reflectance, such as microtopography and biological surface characteristics.     

An Application of the Multi-Physics Ensemble Kalman Filter to Typhoon Forecast

This study examines the roles of the multi-physics approach in accounting for model errors for typhoon forecasts with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Experiments with forecasts of Typhoon Conson (2010) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model show that use of the WRF’s multiple physical parameterization schemes to represent the model uncertainties can help the LETKF provide better forecasts of Typhoon Conson in terms of the forecast errors, the ensemble spread, the root mean square errors, the cross-correlation between mass and wind field as well as the coherent structure of the ensemble spread along the storm center. Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model show that the optimum number of the multi-physics ensemble is roughly equal to the number of combinations of different physics schemes assigned in the multi-physics ensemble. Additional idealized experiments with the Lorenz 40-variable model to isolate the dual roles of the multi-physics ensemble in correcting model errors and expanding the local ensemble space show that the multi-physics approach appears to be more essential in augmenting the local rank representation of the LETKF algorithm rather than directly accounting for model errors during the early cycles. The results in this study suggest that the multi-physics approach is a good option for short-range forecast applications with full physics models in which the spinup of the ensemble Kalman filter may take too long for the ensemble spread to capture efficiently model errors and cross-correlations among model variables.     

Features of the Distribution of Abnormal Gasgeochemical Fields in the Red River Rift (Gulf of Tonkin,South China Sea)

Doklady Earth Sciences - This paper reports the results of the third Russian–Vietnamese expedition (V.I. Il'ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of...     

Sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone of the Mekong River delta,Vietnam

The area of coastal rivers with a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes is defined as the fluvial to marine transition zone and can extend up to several hundreds of kilometres upstream of the river mouth. The aim of this study is to improve the understanding of sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone using a comprehensive dataset of channel bed sediment samples collected from the Mekong River delta. Six sediment types were identified and were interpreted to reflect the combined action of fluvial and marine processes. Based on sediment‐type associations, the Mekong fluvial to marine transition zone could be subdivided into an upstream tract and a downstream tract; the boundary between these two tracts is identified 80 to 100 km upstream of the river mouth. The upstream tract is characterized by gravelly sand and sand and occasional heterolithic rhythmites, suggesting bed‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by fluvial processes with subordinate tidal influence. The downstream tract is characterized by heterolithic rhythmites with subordinate sand and mud, suggesting suspended‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by tidal processes with subordinate fluvial influence. Sediment distributions during wet and dry seasons suggest significant seasonal changes in sediment dynamic and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone. The upstream tract shows strong fluvial depositional processes with subordinate tidal influence during the wet season and no deposition with weak fluvial and tidal processes during the dry season. The downstream tract shows strong coexisting fluvial and tidal depositional processes during the wet season and strong tidal depositional processes with negligible fluvial influence during the dry season. Turbidity maxima are present along the downstream tract of the fluvial to marine transition zone during both wet and dry seasons and are driven by a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes.     

The Nui Chua layered peridotite-gabbro complex as manifestation of Permo-Triassic mantle plume in northern Vietnam

New data on the age, composition, formation conditions, and ore-geochemical specialization of the Nui Chua layered peridotite-gabbro complex are reported. They evidence that the complex resulted from the Permo-Triassic mantle plume activity in northern Vietnam (southern framing of the Yangtze Platform). Two series of mafic and ultramafic rocks differing in ore productivity—layered (PGE-Cu-Ni) and pegmatoid (Fe-Ti-V)—have been recognized within the complex. The first estimates of the composition of their parental melts have been obtained.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from rural household biomass burning in a typical Chinese village

Biomass energy sources are still popular in the rural areas of developing countries for cooking and space heating. Since the incomplete combustion of agricultural residues in home-made ranges might lead to both outdoor and indoor air pollution and cause potential health threat to the rural population, we monitored the ambient levels of 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at a typical rural site. Ambient particulate PAH samples (PM2.5 and PM10) were taken during both cooking and non-cooking periods. Source emission monitoring was also conducted for both improved and tra- ditional cooking stoves used in the area. Ambient PAHs had a significant increase during the cooking periods and varied from 72.1 to 554.4 ng/m3. The highest total PAH levels were found during the supper cooking time, in which five- and six-ring species accounted for a large proportion. The observed PAH levels during cooking periods at this rural site were even higher than those in urban areas. A good correlation was found between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.98), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution in the rural areas, where bio- mass burning is typical. The profiles of the particulate PAHs in both ambient air and source emissions showed a high proportion of high molecular-mass PAHs. In addition, emission factors of 16 PAHs from an improved household stove were found to be significantly lower than those from traditional stoves used in China and in other Asian countries.