Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.     

A remarkable example of a Late Jurassic shallow-water ophiuroid assemblage from the Swiss Jura Mountains

Although much effort has been put into attempts to unravel the Mesozoic ophiuroid fossil record, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the geological history of family-level compositions of brittle star assemblages. Here, we describe new ophiuroid material from the Late Oxfordian Bure Member as exposed in a construction site along the federal Highway A16 (Transjurane Highway) near Boncourt–Queue au Loup (Swiss Jura Mountains). The remains are exceptionally well preserved and partially articulated, enabling detailed morphological observations at a level comparable to Recent material. Three species are identified; they are here shown to display unequivocal affinities with extant ophiuroid lineages. The assemblage comprises a new ophiacanthid genus and species, Juracantha hottingeri, which is closely related to extant Ophientrema, an ophiolepidid close to extant Ophiozonella described here as a new genus and species, Eozonella bergeri, and a species previously described as Ophiacantha? francojurassica, which is here reassigned to the extant ophionereidid genus Ophiodoris. The assemblage was found in association with Nanogyra oyster buildups encrusted by serpulids and associated with partially-articulated crinoids, deposited in a shallow subtidal setting. Its family level composition is highly unusual with respect to modern equivalents, and instead is reminiscent of modern bathyal assemblages.     

Sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone of the Mekong River delta,Vietnam

The area of coastal rivers with a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes is defined as the fluvial to marine transition zone and can extend up to several hundreds of kilometres upstream of the river mouth. The aim of this study is to improve the understanding of sediment distribution and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone using a comprehensive dataset of channel bed sediment samples collected from the Mekong River delta. Six sediment types were identified and were interpreted to reflect the combined action of fluvial and marine processes. Based on sediment‐type associations, the Mekong fluvial to marine transition zone could be subdivided into an upstream tract and a downstream tract; the boundary between these two tracts is identified 80 to 100 km upstream of the river mouth. The upstream tract is characterized by gravelly sand and sand and occasional heterolithic rhythmites, suggesting bed‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by fluvial processes with subordinate tidal influence. The downstream tract is characterized by heterolithic rhythmites with subordinate sand and mud, suggesting suspended‐load supply and deposition mainly controlled by tidal processes with subordinate fluvial influence. Sediment distributions during wet and dry seasons suggest significant seasonal changes in sediment dynamic and depositional processes along the fluvial to marine transition zone. The upstream tract shows strong fluvial depositional processes with subordinate tidal influence during the wet season and no deposition with weak fluvial and tidal processes during the dry season. The downstream tract shows strong coexisting fluvial and tidal depositional processes during the wet season and strong tidal depositional processes with negligible fluvial influence during the dry season. Turbidity maxima are present along the downstream tract of the fluvial to marine transition zone during both wet and dry seasons and are driven by a combination of fluvial, tidal and wave processes.     

Predicting Blast-Induced Ground Vibration in Open-Pit Mines Using Different Nature-Inspired Optimization Algorithms and Deep Neural Network

Natural Resources Research - Blast-induced ground vibration (GV) is a hazardous phenomenon in open-pit mines, and it has unquestionable effects, such as slope instability, deformation of...     

Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Magmatism in the Iberian Pyrite Belt: petrological constraints on a metallogenic model

Igneous formations associated with massive sulphide deposits in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) are essentially composed of basic lavas and dolerites, and dacitic to rhyolitic volcanites; intermediate lavas are subordinate. The basic rocks show variable geochemical characteristics: lavas and dolerites comparable to recent within-plate alkaline basalts seem restricted to the western and southern parts of the IPB, whereas basic rocks comparable to continental tholeiites or arc-related basalts occur across the whole belt. The felsic rocks are classified as calc-alkaline and belong to the “low-Al₂O₃ and high-Yb type”. At given SiO₂, Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ contents, they show variable Zr, Nb, and HREE contents. Heavy-rare-earth element fractionation decreases from the dacites to the rhyolites ([Gd/Yb]_N ∼ 1), whereas the negative Eu-anomaly becomes more pronounced. The characteristics of the rhyolites are typical of sulphide-fertile volcanic packages. Trace-element modelling suggests that the felsic rocks evolved from a dacitic parent magma through fractional crystallization of hornblende and plagioclase. Partial melting of an amphibolite protolith, which appears as the most probable model for the origin of this dacitic magma, requires a high T/P gradient in the crust. The occurrence of alkaline basalts and continental tholeiites is consistent with formation of the IPB in a tensional tectonic setting. However, the associated island-arc tholeiites suggest a location in a domain of plate convergence. Emplacement in a fore-arc basin over a recently accreted crustal segment is envisaged as a possible hypothesis to account for the geological and petrological constraints. A high geothermal gradient and eruption in a submarine tensional basin could have been two key ingredients for the development of massive sulphide deposits within the IPB.

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Resumen (translated by E. Pascual) Las formaciones ígneas asociadas con los depósitos de sulfuros masivos de la Faja Pirítica Ibérica (IPB) se componen esencialmente de doleritas y lavas básicas y de rocas volcánicas dacíticas a riolíticas; las lavas intermedias son poco abundantes. Las rocas básicas muestran caracteres geoquímicos variables: lavas y doleritas comparables a basaltos alcalinos intraplaca recientes parecen hasta ahora restringidos a las partes W y S de la IPB, mientras que rocas básicas de caracteres comparables a las de toleítas continentales o basaltos relacionados con arcos aparecen en toda la zona. Las rocas ácidas se clasifican como calcoalcalinas del tipo “low-Al₂O₃, high-Yb”. Para un contenido dado en SiO₂, Al₂O₃ y TiO₂, muestran contenidos variables en Zr, Nb y REE. El contenido en tierras raras pesadas decrece de dacitas a riolitas ([Gd/Yb]_N ∼ 1), al tiempo que la anomalía de Eu se hace más pronunciada. La modelización de elementos trazas sugiere que las rocas evolucionaron a partir de un magma parental dacítico mediante cristalización fraccionada de hornblenda y plagioclasa. La fusión parcial de un protolito anfibolítico, que parece el modelo más plausible para el origen del magma dacítico, requiere un elevado gradiente T/P en la corteza. La existencia de basaltos alcalinos y de toleítas continentales es congruente con la formación de la IPB en un entorno tectónico distensivo. El emplazamiento en una cuenca “fore-arc”, en un segmento cortical de reciente acreción, se contempla como una hipótesis posible para explicar los caracteres geológicos y petrológicos. Un alto gradiente térmico, junto con la erupción en una cuenca submarina extensional, pueden haber sido los dos ingredientes clave en el desarrollo de los depósitos de sulfuros masivos en la IPB.

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Received: 3 March 1996 / Accepted: 7 April 1997     

Improved flood susceptibility mapping using a best first decision tree integrated with ensemble learning techniques

Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events. In this study, we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree (BFT) and the Bagging (Bagging-BFT), Decorate (Bagging-BFT), and Random Subspace (RSS-BFT) ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner. A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province (Vietnam) were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors (slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, river density, distance from rivers, flow direction, geology, soil, and land use) for generating the training and validation datasets. The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events. Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT (AUC = 0.982) and Bagging-BFT (AUC = 0.967) models. A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.     

Correlating mass physical properties with ALOS reflectance spectra for intertidal sediments from the Ba Lat Estuary (northern Vietnam): an exploratory laboratory study

Characterization of the sediment composition of tidal flats and monitoring of their spatiotemporal changes has become an important part of the sustainable management of coastal environments. To accurately classify sediments through remote sensing, a comprehensive understanding of sediment reflectance spectra is indispensable. The present laboratory-based study explores the performance of the high spatial resolution (10?×?10 m) Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) launched in 2006. Relationships between reflectance spectra (bands 1 to 4) and four typical mass physical properties were investigated under wet and dry experimental conditions for intertidal sediments sampled near the Ba Lat Estuary in northern Vietnam. Reflectance in the near-infrared region corresponding to ALOS band 4 (0.76–0.89 μm) was found (1) to have a strong negative correlation with sand content (dry wt%) under both wet and dry conditions (linear correlation coefficient r?=?–0.7859 and –0.8094, respectively), (2) to increase with decreasing relative water content (%) in a given sediment type (r?=?–0.7748 to –0.9367 for mud, sandy mud, muddy sand, and sand), (3) to have a positive correlation with organic matter content (r?=?0.7610 and 0.6460 under wet and dry conditions for contents >0.20 dry wt%), and (4) to be insignificantly correlated with mineral composition assessed in terms of contents (wt%) of quartz, clay minerals, and mica group minerals. Positive relationships between reflectance and water content for the pooled data of all sediment types (r?=?0.6395) or organic matter content contrast with previous findings, and can be attributed to close interrelationships between these properties and the predominance of sand content as controlling factor of reflectance. This study clarifies that ALOS band 4 provides the most useful imagery for intertidal monitoring because its reflectance, as simulated using the laboratory data, shows the strongest correlation with sand content. In a next step, these experimental findings should be verified by identifying the reflectance relationships at satellite image scales, and also considering the effects of other tidal flat features on reflectance, such as microtopography and biological surface characteristics.     

A simplified methodology for mapping groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk, and its first application in a tropical karst area, Vietnam

A simplified methodology for mapping groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk is proposed, and the first application of the methodology, in a mountainous tropical karst area, is presented. The test site is the Tam Duong area, one of the poorest and remotest regions in northern Vietnam. The methodology requires a minimum of input data, which makes it particularly useful for developing countries. Vulnerability is assessed on the basis of two factors, which take into account the duality of recharge processes in karst aquifer systems: the overlying layers (O) and the concentration of flow (C). The risk map is obtained by putting together the vulnerability map and a simplified hazard assessment. The resulting maps provide a basis for groundwater protection zoning and land-use planning. Tracer tests and microbiological data confirmed the vulnerability and risk assessment in the test site.