Assessing the copula selection for bivariate frequency analysis based on the tail dependence test

The flood characteristics, namely, peak, duration and volume provide important information for the design of hydraulic structures, water resources planning, reservoir management and flood hazard mapping. Flood is a complex phenomenon defined by strongly correlated characteristics such as peak, duration and volume. Therefore, it is necessary to study the simultaneous, multivariate, probabilistic behaviour of flood characteristics. Traditional multivariate parametric distributions have widely been applied for hydrological applications. However, this approach has some drawbacks such as the dependence structure between the variables, which depends on the marginal distributions or the flood variables that have the same type of marginal distributions. Copulas are applied to overcome the restriction of traditional bivariate frequency analysis by choosing the marginals from different families of the probability distribution for flood variables. The most important step in the modelling process using copula is the selection of copula function which is the best fit for the data sample. The choice of copula may significantly impact the bivariate quantiles. Indeed, this study indicates that there is a huge difference in the joint return period estimation using the families of extreme value copulas and no upper tail copulas (Frank, Clayton and Gaussian) if there exists asymptotic dependence in the flood characteristics. This study suggests that the copula function should be selected based on the dependence structure of the variables. From the results, it is observed that the result from tail dependence test is very useful in selecting the appropriate copula for modelling the joint dependence structure of flood variables. The extreme value copulas with upper tail dependence have proved that they are appropriate models for the dependence structure of the flood characteristics and Frank, Clayton and Gaussian copulas are the appropriate copula models in case of variables which are diagnosed as asymptotic independence.     

Correcting the distortion of apparent resistivity pseudosection produced by 3D effect of the embankment geometry

Two-dimensional electrical resistivity tomography data acquired on the crest of the embankment are distorted by the 3D effect of the embankment geometry, reservoir water level and abutment. The distortion affects seriously the final solution of the 2D inverse problem. By comparing the apparent resistivity pseudosections from a 3D and 2D electrical resistivity model of the embankment, the distortion degrees of the apparent resistivity pseudosections along the axis on the crest were estimated for the cases of reservoir and which does not contain water. The obtained results indicate that the distortion degree acquired in the case of a reservoir that contains water was much less than that in the case of the reservoir that does not contain water. In the case of reservoir that contains water, the apparent resistivity pseudosections of the P–P and ED–ED arrays had the largest distortion degree and of D–D, W–S and P–D arrays had the smallest distortion degree. In the case of the reservoir that does not contain water, the apparent resistivity pseudosection of P–P array had the smallest distortion among all arrays. Through modeling investigation, a correction process to reduce the distortion of the apparent resistivity pseudosection was proposed. The correction process was tested in the embankment model, and two field works were carried out in the To Lich River in Hanoi and Khuan Cat embankment in Lang Son province, Vietnam. It is possible to bring the distortion of the apparent resistivity pseudosection down to 2.8–13.9%, depending on the type of electrode arrays and the type of reservoirs, containing or does not contain water. The distortion correction of the apparent resistivity pseudosection is strongly recommended before doing the 2D inverse interpretation.     

Formation process of two massive dams following rainfall-induced deep-seated rapid landslide failures in the Kii Peninsula of Japan

Extreme heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Talas on September 2–4, 2011 in the Kii Peninsula, Japan, triggered numerous floods and landslides. This study investigates the mechanism and the entire process of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides forming two massive dams in the Kuridaira and Akatani valleys, respectively. The mechanism of the rapid deep-seated landslides is examined through a series of laboratory experiments on samples from sliding surfaces by using undrained high-stress dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus. The test results indicate that the failure of samples is triggered by excess pore water pressure generation under a shear displacement from 2 to 7 mm with a pore pressure ratio ranging from 0.33 to 0.37. The rapid movement of landslides is mainly attributed to high mobility due to the liquefaction behavior of both sandstone-rich and shale samples. Geomorphic settings and landslide mobility are major contributing factors to the dam formation. Additionally, shear displacement control tests show that a certain amount of shear displacement between 2 and 7 mm along the sliding surfaces of the gravitationally deformed slopes might have led to the failures. Importantly, computer simulation with LS-RAPID software using input parameters obtained from physical experiments is employed to interpret the entire formation process of the abovementioned two landslide dams. The simulation results are examined in accordance with the observed on-site geomorphic features and recorded data to explain the possibility of sliding processes. The results further point out that local failures are initiated from the lower middle part of the landslide bodies where the geological boundary exists. This condition most probably influences the landslide initiation in the two case studies. This research is therefore helpful for hazard assessment of slopes that are susceptible to deep-seated landslides and other sequential processes in areas with geology and geomorphology similar to that of the Kii Peninsula.     

GNSS receiver implementations to mitigate the effects of commensurate sampling frequencies on DLL code tracking

The sampling frequency of a digitized intermediate frequency signal has a strong effect on the measurement accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. The delay-locked loop tracking error is significant when the sampling frequency is an integer multiple of the code chipping rate, the so-called commensurate sampling frequency, and the number of distinct instantaneous residual code phases is low. This results in distortions of the correlation shape and discriminator functions that lead to a significant accuracy degradation. These effects are most pronounced when the sampling frequency is low. Notwithstanding, it is generally good for receivers to keep the sampling frequency to a minimum owing to the processing load and power consumption. It creates a challenge for existing GNSS signal processing techniques. Random, sine and sawtooth jitters have been found to mitigate these distortions considerably. A software algorithm and two hardware receiver implementations of these solutions are proposed. A register-based architecture can be directly applied to the conventional receiver architecture, while the increase in resource and power consumption is insignificant. A RAM-based design cannot only considerably minimize utilized resources but also slightly reduce the power consumption compared to the conventional architecture.     

Statistical Links between Solar Cosmic Rays,Type-II Radio Emission,and Coronal Mass Ejections

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Type-II radio emission often accompanies events in solar cosmic rays and is an indicator of the propagation of a shock wave in the solar corona. Conversely, the shock...     

Long‐term seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges under steel reinforcement corrosion due to chloride attack

This work presents a new seismic evaluation methodology for corroded reinforced concrete bridges on the basis of nonlinear static pushover analysis. Corrosion of steel reinforcement by chloride attack is considered. At the material level, the effects of corrosion are considered by modeling the degradation of the mechanical properties of steel reinforcement, softening of cover concrete under compression, degradation of core concrete due to confinement steel corrosion, and reduction of bond strength between concrete and steel reinforcement. At the structural level, the effects of corrosion on both flexural behavior and shear behavior, and their interaction are considered. Eleven bridges of various structural types in Taiwan that are located within 6.5 km of their nearest coastline are analyzed to identify their long‐term seismic performance. Relationships between the yield and collapse peak ground accelerations (PGAs), and service time and corrosion level are established for each bridge. Analysis results show that chloride corrosion starts in 2–32 years. The transverse steel reinforcement typically starts corroding before the longitudinal steel reinforcement, as the former has a thicker cover. Research results show that collapse PGA reduces by 0.94% or 1.23% per 10 years when the mean value plus 1 or 2 standard deviation of the collapse PGA values are considered, respectively. Therefore, we suggest increasing the design PGA from 4.70% to 6.15% for a bridge adjacent to a coastline to ensure adequate long‐term seismic performance for 50 years, the typical design life span of a regular bridge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slope stability analysis using a physically based model: a case study from A Luoi district in Thua Thien-Hue Province,Vietnam

A case study of slope stability mapping is presented for the A Luoi district situated in the mountainous western part of Thua Thien-Hue Province in Central Vietnam, where slope failures occur frequently and seriously affect local living conditions. The methodology is based on the infinite slope stability model, which calculates a safety factor as the ratio between shear strength and shear stress. The triggering mechanism for slope instability considered in the analysis is the maximum daily precipitation recorded in a 28-year period (1976–2003) taking into account runoff and infiltration predicted with a hydrological model. All necessary physical parameters are derived from topography, soil texture, and land use, in GIS-raster grid format with pixel size of 30 by 30 m. Results of the analysis are compared with a slope failure inventory map of 2001, showing that more than 86.9 % of the existing slope failures are well predicted by the physically based slope stability model. It can be concluded that the larger part of the study area is prone to landsliding. The resulting slope stability map is useful for further research and land-use planning, but for precise prediction of future slope failures, more effort is needed with respect to spatial variation of causative factors and analysis techniques.     

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir (North Vietnam)

The occurrence of increasing blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in freshwaters has received much attention due to the ability of many cyanobacteria to produce potent cyanotoxins. In this paper, the occurrence of dominant cyanobacteria and the concentration of microcystins (MCs) analysis were investigated monthly from July 2008 to April 2009 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from February to April 2009 in the Nui Coc reservoir. Concentrations of intracellular MCs from water, bloom samples, and isolated strains were quantified by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). During the study period, the microscopic examination of the phytoplankton samples showed the dominance of the genus Microcystis in the water environment of the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir. The toxin analysis by HPLC demonstrated the presence of two MC variants: MC-LR and MC-RR in water samples. Total concentrations of the toxins in filtered samples from surface water ranged from non-detected to 0.91 μg L^?1 at Nui Coc reservoir and they ranged from 2.1 to 46.0 μg L^?1 at Hoan Kiem Lake. The results of the HPLC analysis confirmed the production of MCs in bloom samples (ranged from 115.9 to 184.6 μg L^?1 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from 726.5 to 1116 μg L^?1 in the Nui Coc reservoir) and isolated strains of Anabaena sp. and Microcystis with the concentration of MC ranging from 152 to 396.2 μg g^?1 dry mass, respectively.     

Hydrological and hydrogeological characterization of groundwater and river water in the North Hanoi industrial area,Vietnam

Degradation of groundwater quality by human activities is a widespread environmental problem in Vietnam. Groundwater there is a major source of water for domestic and industrial purposes. This paper reviews, compiles, and comprehensively analyzes spatiotemporal variations of hydrological and hydrogeological characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater aquifers in northern Hanoi industrial zones and in nearby Red River water. Groundwater level, electrical conductivity, and water temperature were measured in six monitoring wells, complemented by anion, cation, and stable isotope analyses of ground and surface water. The results show that the groundwater in both shallow and deep aquifers was fresh, but mainly calcium-bicarbonate type contaminants and human activities affect groundwater and surface water composition. With the goal of devising sustainable water use regulations, more research must be directed toward long-term monitoring of groundwater and surface water quality, as well as toward detailed investigation of the hydraulic characteristics of local aquifers in the study area.     

Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models

Results from the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast water levels at 3 stations along the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River are reported in this paper. The study investigated the effects of including water levels from upstream stations and tributaries, and rainfall as inputs to ANFIS models developed for the 3 stations. When upstream water levels in the mainstream were used as input, improvements to forecasts were realized only when the water levels from 1 or at most 2 upstream stations were included. This is because when there are significant contributions of flow from the tributaries, the correlation between the water levels in the upstream stations and stations of interest decreases, limiting the effectiveness of including water levels from upstream stations as inputs. In addition, only improvements at short lead times were achieved. Including the water level from the tributaries did not significantly improve forecast results. This is attributed mainly to the fact that the flow contributions represented by the tributaries may not be significant enough, given that there could be large volume of flow discharging directly from the catchments which are ungauged, into the mainstream. The largest improvement for 1-day forecasts was obtained for Kratie station where lateral flow contribution was 17 %, the highest for the 3 stations considered. The inclusion of rainfall as input resulted in significant improvements to long-term forecasts. For Thakhek, where rainfall is most significant, the persistence index and coefficient of efficiency for 5-lead-day forecasts improved from 0.17 to 0.44 and 0.89 to 0.93, respectively, whereas the root mean square error decreased from 0.83 to 0.69 m.