Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose.     

Matrix formulation of the Picard method for parallel computation

Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy - The increasing availability of computing machines capable of parallel computation has accelerated interest in numerical methods that exhibit natural...     

Controlling incidental catch: An economic analysis of six management options

The authors identify a management approach to the problem of incidental catch and utilize that approach to evaluate six management options which are being considered to control incidental catch in the US fishery conservation zone of the Bering Sea. The evaluation is in terms of the ability of management to minimize the impact and control costs of incidental catch. The authors conclude that the use of economic disincentives tends to be preferable due to the inefficiencies and extensive information requirements of the alternative options.     

Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods

A range of existing statistical approaches for reconstructing historical temperature variations from proxy data are compared using both climate model data and real-world paleoclimate proxy data. We also propose a new method for reconstruction that is based on a state-space time series model and Kalman filter algorithm. The state-space modelling approach and the recently developed RegEM method generally perform better than their competitors when reconstructing interannual variations in Northern Hemispheric mean surface air temperature. On the other hand, a variety of methods are seen to perform well when reconstructing surface air temperature variability on decadal time scales. An advantage of the new method is that it can incorporate additional, non-temperature, information into the reconstruction, such as the estimated response to external forcing, thereby permitting a simultaneous reconstruction and detection analysis as well as future projection. An application of these extensions is also demonstrated in the paper.     

On the incidence of magnetic fields in slowly pulsating B, β Cephei and B-type emission-line stars

We have obtained 40 high-resolution circular spectropolarimetric measurements of 12 slowly pulsating B (SPB) stars, eight β Cephei stars and two Be stars with the Echelle Spectropolarimetric Device for the Observation of Stars at CFHT (ESPaDOnS) and Narval spectropolarimeters. The aim of these observations is to evaluate recent claims of a high incidence of magnetic field detections in stars of these types obtained using low-resolution spectropolarimetry by Hubrig et al. The precision achieved is generally comparable to or superior to that obtained by Hubrig et al., although our new observations are distinguished by their resolution of metallic and He line profiles, and their consequent sensitivity to magnetic fields of zero net longitudinal component. In the SPB stars, we confirm the detection of magnetic field in one star (16 Peg), but find no evidence of the presence of fields in the remaining 11. In the β Cep stars, we detect a field in  ξ¹  CMa, but not in any of the remaining seven stars. Finally, neither of the two B-type emission-line stars shows any evidence of magnetic field. Based on our results, we conclude that fields are not common in SPB, β Cep and B-type emission-line stars, consistent with the general rarity of fields in the broader population of main sequence B-type stars. A relatively small, systematic underestimation of the error bars associated with the UV Focal Reducer and Low Dispersion Spectrograph for the Very Large Telescope (FORS1) longitudinal field measurements of Hubrig et al. could in large part explain the discrepancy between their results and those presented here.     

A novel index of susceptibility of rivers and their catchments to acidification in regions subject to a maritime influence

A simple, unifying approach to classifying quantitatively the susceptibility of catchment soils and surface waters to acidification is suggested. In areas subject to a strong maritime influence, such as the UK and substantial parts of NW Europe, wherever soil mineral weathering rates are low and soils are unfertilised, atmospherically derived base cations of maritime origins have a greater effect than those derived from biogeochemical weathering on the exchangeable soil base cations. This is directly reflected in the relative base cation concentrations of the associated drainage waters, which become increasingly Na-dominated. Using 10 sub-catchments of the River Dee in north-eastern Scotland, it is shown here that the extent of Na dominance, the ratio of Na⁺ to ΣNa⁺+Ca²⁺+Mg²⁺, at any point in a river provides a quantitative index of the upstream weathering rate and thus of the susceptibility of the river concerned to acidification under diverse flow conditions. Data from a further 58 sub-catchments from the same river system, and from 4 other catchments from around Scotland, were used to validate this theory.     

An ethnoarchaeological study of chemical residues in the floors and soils of Q'eqchi' Maya houses at Las Pozas,Guatemala

This ethnoarchaeological study at the Q'eqchi' Maya village of Las Pozas, Guatemala, aimed to refine the understanding of the relationship between soil chemical signatures and human activities for archaeological applications. The research involved phosphorus, exchangeable ion (calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium), and trace element analysis of soils and earth floors extracted by Mehlich II, ammonium acetate, and DTPA chelate solutions, respectively. The results showed high levels of phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, and pH in food preparation areas, as well as high phosphorus concentrations and low pH in food consumption areas. The traffic areas exhibited low phosphorus and trace element contents, whereas refuse disposal areas were enriched. These results provide important information for the understanding of space use in ancient settlements. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Minerals produced during cooling and hydrothermal alteration of ash flow tuff from Yellowstone drill hole Y-5

A rhyolitic ash-flow tuff in a hydrothermally active area within the Yellowstone caldera was drilled in 1967, and cores were studied to determine the nature and distribution of primary and secondary mineral phases. The rocks have undergone a complex history of crystallization and hydrothermal alteration since their emplacement 600,000 years ago. During cooling from magmatic temperatures, the glassy groundmass underwent either devitrification to alkali feldspar + α-cristobalite ± tridymite or granophyric crystallization to alkali feldspar + quartz. Associated with the zones of granophyric crystallization are prismatic quartz crystals in cavities similar to those termed miarolitic in plutonic rocks. Vapor-phase alkali feldspar, tridymite, magnetite, and sporadic α-cristobalite were deposited in cavities and in void spaces of pumice fragments. Subsequently, some of the vapor-phase alkali feldspar crystals were replaced by microcrystalline quartz, and the vapor-phase minerals were frosted by a coating of saccharoidal quartz.Hydrothermal minerals occur primarily as linings and fillings of cavities and fractures and as altered mafic phenocrysts. Chalcedony is the dominant mineral related to the present hydrothermal regime and occurs as microcrystalline material mixed with various amounts of hematite and goethite. The chalcedony displays intricate layering and was apparently deposited as opal from silica-rich water. Hematite and goethite also replace both mafic phenocrysts and vapor-phase magnetite. Other conspicuous hydrothermal minerals include montmorillonite, pyrite, mordenite, calcite, and fluorite. Clinoptilolite, erionite, illite, kaolinite, and manganese oxides are sporadic. The hydrothermal minerals show little correlation with temperature, but bladed calcite is restricted to a zone of boiling in the tuff and clearly was deposited when CO₂ was lost during boiling.Fractures and breccias filled with chalcedony are common throughout Y-5 and may have been produced by rapid disruption of rock caused by sudden decrease of fluid pressure in fractures, most likely a result of fracturing during resurgent doming in this part of the Yellowstone caldera. The chalcedony probably was deposited as opal or β-cristobalite from a pre-existing silica floc that moved rapidly into the fractures and breccias immediately after the sudden pressure drop.