Coastal risk forecast system

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.     

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides at volcanic islands: the Stromboli case study

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides in an active volcano was evaluated coupling the landslide susceptibility estimation by random forest (RF), and the probabilistic volcanic vent opening distribution, as proxy for magma injection, using the QVAST tool. In order to develop and test the method proposed here, the RF/QVAST approach was adopted for Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy) since it experienced moderate to huge instability events, it is geomorphologically prone to instability events, and it is affected by active intense volcanic activity that can produce slope instability. The main destabilizing factors of the volcanic flanks are the slope, the aspect, the terrain roughness, the land cover and the litho-technical features of the outcropping rocks. Estimation of volcanic susceptibility shows that the areas with high probability of new vent opening are located in the north-western unstable volcano flank (Sciara del Fuoco), in the volcano summit and the north-eastern volcano flank coherent with the possible re-activation of the eruptive fissures related to the regional tectonic setting. The areas with higher probability of intrusion-related landslides are located in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco, while the rest of the island show moderate to low probability of intrusion-related landslide occurrence.     

A Meta‐Analysis on the Return on Investment of Geospatial Data and Systems: A Multi‐Country Perspective

The availability, quality and accessibility of Geographic Information (GI) have significant socio‐economic and environmental benefits, but the collection and maintenance of GI require substantial investments. Cost‐benefit assessments (CBAs) attempt to justify the costs of geospatial data investments, applying different methodologies and focusing on diverse areas. Therefore, the Returns on Investment (ROI) vary considerably across studies, regions and sectors. The objective of this study is to explain some of the variation in the average ROI of GI by conducting a meta‐analysis of 82 cost‐benefit assessments between 1994 and 2013. In a first step, CBAs are systematically reviewed and relevant information is extracted. Particular emphasis is given to investment conditions and study characteristics. In a second step, multivariate regression methods are used to assess the size, significance and direction of individual effects. The results suggest that regional factors have the largest impact on the profitability of GI. Returns in Australia and New Zealand, for example, are four times larger than in Europe. In addition, small‐scale regional investments have a 2.5 times lower return than large‐scale international investments. Overall, the expected benefits of GI investments are approximately 3.2 times larger than the costs.     

Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain

Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.     

Looking into a volcanic area: An overview on the 350 m scientific drilling at Colli Albani (Rome,Italy)

A 350 m deep borehole was drilled in the Colli Albani volcanic district (Central Italy) in order to: understand the shallow crust structure beneath the volcanic complex; characterize the rock physical properties especially through in-situ measurements and, afterward, laboratory experiments; assess the local present-day stress field; install a broad-band seismometer at depth. The borehole is located adjacent to the western rim of the Tuscolano–Artemisio caldera, where several phenomena of unrest recently occurred. In 1989–90 a seismic swarm affected this area and a related uplift was recognized. In addition, high gas concentrations (mainly CO₂ and H₂S), in aquifers and soils, caused illnesses and casualties among inhabitants and animals in the past.     

Mineralogy and Geochemistry of Rural Road Dust and Nearby Mine Tailings: A Case of Ignored Pollution Hazard from an Abandoned Mining Site in Semi-arid Zone

Natural Resources Research - Abandoned mine tailings are considered as one of the main sources of potentially toxic elements. Because of the lack of supervision, particularly from small-scale or...     

Soft proton flux on <Emphasis Type="Italic">ATHENA</Emphasis> focal plane and its impact on the magnetic diverter design

The experience gained with the current generation of X-ray telescopes like Chandra and XMM-Newton has shown that low energy “soft” protons can pose a severe threat to the possibility to exploit scientific data, reducing the available exposure times by up to 50% and introducing a poorly reproducible background component. These soft protons are present in orbits outside the radiation belts and enter the mirrors, being concentrated towards the focal plane instruments, losing energy along their path and finally depositing their remaining energy in the detectors. Their contribution to the residual background will be even higher for ATHENA with respect to previous missions, given the much higher collecting area of the mirrors, even if the instruments will likely suffer no significant radiation damage from this particles flux. As a consequence this soft proton flux shall be damped with the use of a magnetic diverter to avoid excess background loading on the WFI or X-IFU instruments. We present here a first complete evaluation of this background component for the two focal plane instruments of the ATHENA mission in absence of a magnetic diverter, and derive the requirements for such device to reduce the soft protons induced background below the level required to enable the mission science. We estimate the soft proton flux expected in L2 for the interplanetary component and for the component generated locally by acceleration processes in the magnetotail. We produce a proton response matrix for each of the two instruments of ATHENA focal plane, exploiting two independent Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the optics concentration efficiency, and Geant4 simulations to evaluate the energy loss inside the radiation filters and deposited in the detector. With this modular approach we derive the expected fluxes and spectra for the soft protons component of the background. Finally, we calculate the specifics of a magnetic diverter able to reduce such flux below the required level for both X-IFU and WFI.     

Climatic trend and the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula: an overview

Observation of the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula during the last three decades and associated changes in air temperature, measured at various meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula, are reviewed. The climatically induced retreat of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf on the east coast and of the Wordie, George VI, and Wilkins ice shelves on the west coast amounted to about 10 000 km² since the mid-1960s. A summary is presented on the recession history of the Larsen Ice Shelf and on the collapse of those sections north of Robertson Island in early 1995. The area changes were derived from images of various satellites, dating back to a late 1963 image from the recently declassified US Argon space missions. This photograph reveals a previously unknown, minor advance of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf before 1975. During the period of retreat a consistent and pronounced warming trend was observed at the stations on both east and west coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula, but a major cause of the fast retreat and final collapse of the northernmost sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf were several unusually warm summers. Temperature records from the nearby station Marambio show that a positive mean summer temperature was reached for the first time in 1992-93. Recent observations indicate that the process of ice shelf disintegration is proceeding further south on both sides of the Antarctic Peninsula.     

Hydrocarbon potential of the middle Eocene-middle Miocene Mesohellenic piggy-back basin (central Greece): A case study

Two depocentres, >4200 m and >3200 m thick, have been recognized in the Mesohellenic piggy-back basin of middle Eocene to middle Miocene age, where submarine fans have accumulated unconformably over an ophiolite complex. The hydrocarbon potential is indicated by the presence of kerogen types II/III with minor amounts of type I; the evidence is mostly for wet gas and gas, with minor oil. Source rocks are the middle Eocene to lower Oligocene Krania and Eptachori formations, of up to 2000 m total thickness, reaching maturation during the early Miocene. The source rocks consist of outer fan and basin plain deposits. They are conformably overlain by the lower member (late Oligocene) of the up to 2600 m thick Pentalophos Formation, which consists mostly of thick submarine sandstone lobes. Possible stratigraphically trapped reservoirs include the lower member of the Pentalophos Formation, which overlies source rocks, as well as limestones tectonically intercalated within the ophiolite complex, underlying the source rocks. Traps may have formed also on the western side of an internal thrust (Theotokos Thrust), which influenced the evolution of the depocentres.