Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle

Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand, the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean, our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show, the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique, so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate, impact, adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity.     

Frost heave analysis of ballasted track above box culvert and its influence on train vibration

The uneven frost heave of frost-susceptible subgrade soil causes track irregularity, which highly enhances train vibration and affects the comfort and safety of railway transportation. This paper presents a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) analysis for the freezing behavior of railway located above a box culvert. The vertical acceleration of the vehicle, an indicator of riding comfort, is predicted through a vehicle dynamic model. The results reveal that the existence of a box culvert changes the subgrade thermal pattern, leading to a deeper frost penetration depth. The frost heave amount above the box culvert is larger than the adjacent section, resulting in uneven track structure upheave and track irregularity. This frost-induced track irregularity highly affects train vibration.     

Palaeotemperature curve for the Late Cretaceous of the northwestern circum-Pacific

In the northwestern circum-Pacific, two main trends in Late Cretaceous temperatures can be recognized. (1) In general, a recurrent warming trend is thought to have begun in the Turonian–Campanian, reaching temperature maxima in the early Late Santonian and early Late Campanian, and temperature minima in the earliest Santonian and perhaps early Campanian. (2) During the Maastrichtian, temperatures dropped sharply, with only a slight warming in the early Late Maastrichtian. The existence of a thermal maximum at the Coniacian–Santonian transition has previously been expected, but is not confirmed by new isotopic results.     

Sea level variation in the eastern Asia

Mean sea level variations in the eastern Asia region during 1950 to 1991 are investigated with the use of observed sea level data at 16 stations. It is suggested from the data analysis, that the main cause of long-term sea level variation in this region may be the plate tectonic processes. The mean sea levels along the eastern coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the southern coast of Indonesia have risen due to the subsidence of Pacific, Philippine and Australian plates under the Eurasian plate, respectively. On the other hand, the mean sea levels along the western coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the northern coast of Indonesia have fallen. The distribution map of mean sea level rise at the year 2030 from 1985 in this region is presented on the basis of the results of this work and IPCC (1990).     

Assessing impervious area ratios of grid-based land-use classifications on the example of an urban watershed

ABSTRACT

When applying a distributed hydrological model in urban watersheds, grid-based land-use classification data with 10 m resolution are typically used in Japan. For urban hydrological models, the estimation of the impervious area ratio (IAR) of each land-use classification is a crucial factor for accurate runoff analysis. In order to assess the IAR accurately, we created a set of vector-based “urban landscape GIS delineation” data for a typical urban watershed in Tokyo. By superimposing the vector-based delineation map on the grid-based map, the IAR of each grid-based land-use classification was estimated, after calculating the IARs of all grid cells in the entire urban watershed. As a result, we were able to calculate the frequency distribution of IAR for each land-use classification, as well as the spatial distribution of IARs for the urban watershed. It is evident from the results that the reference values of IAR for the land-use classifications were estimated very roughly and inherited errors of between about 7% and 70%, which corresponds to more than 100 mm increase of direct runoff for the 1500 mm annual average precipitation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor E. Volpi     

Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS

In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse[Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS.     

Anharmonic effect on the equation of state (EoS) for NaCl

We find clear intrinsic anharmonicity in the NaCl-B1 phase by examining the equation of state (EoS) based on previous ultrasonic velocity data for pressures up to 0.8 GPa and temperatures up to 800 K. The experimental EoS for this phase shows that its specific heat at constant volume (C _V ) is significantly smaller than that based on a harmonic model. Also, the sign of $\left( {{{\partial C_{V} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial C_{V} } {\partial P}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\partial P}}} \right)_{T} ,$ which is normally negative in the quasi-harmonic approximation, is unexpectedly positive. The thermodynamic Grüneisen parameter (γ), which has frequently been assumed to be a single-variable function of molar volume, shows not only volume dependence but also negative temperature dependence. To understand these features of C _V and γ, we introduce a thermodynamic model including positive quartic anharmonicity. To make an anharmonic model advancing the ordinarily quasi-harmonic approximation model, we introduce two parameters: anharmonic characteristic temperature (θ _a ) and its volume derivative. In the anharmonic model, the value of C _V is calculated along an isochore using classical statistical mechanics and a harmonic quantum correction. At high temperatures, the decrease in C _V from the Dulong-Petit limit is related to the value of T/θ _a . For infinitely large θ _a , the system is approximately quasi-harmonic. The temperature dependence of γ is related to C _V by the thermodynamic identity $\left( {{{\partial C_{V} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial C_{V} } {\partial \ln V}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\partial \ln V}}} \right)_{T} = C_{V} \left( {{{\partial \gamma } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial \gamma } {\partial \ln T}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\partial \ln T}}} \right)_{V} + \gamma \left( {{{\partial C_{V} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial C_{V} } {\partial \ln T}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\partial \ln T}}} \right)_{V}.$ Even though our modification of the quasi-harmonic approximation is simple, our anharmonic model succeeds in reproducing the experimental γ and C _V simultaneously for the NaCl-B1 phase.