Effective flood risk visualisation

Natural Hazards - The effective communication of flood risk offers the opportunity to ensure communities can adapt and respond appropriately to changing local conditions. At a time of diminishing...     

A fluid dynamical flow model for the central peak in the rotation curve of disk galaxies

The rotation curve of the central region in some disk galaxies shows a linear rise, terminating at a peak (primary peak) which is then followed by a deep minimum. The curve then again rises to another peak at more or less half-way across the galactic radius. This latter peak is considered as the peak of the rotation curve in all large-scale analysis of galactic structure. The primary peak is usually ignored for the purpose. In this work an attempt has been made to look at the primary peak as the manifestation of the post-explosion flow pattern of gas in the deep central region of galaxies. Solving hydrodynamical equations of motion, a flow model has been derived which imitates very closely the actually observed linear rotational velocity, followed by the falling branch of the curve to minimum. The theoretical flow model has been compared with observed results for nine galaxies. The agreement obtained is extremely encouraging. The distance of the primary peak from the galactic centre has been shown to be correlated with the angular velocity in the linear part of the rotation curve. Here also, agreement is very good between theoretical and observed results. It is concluded that the distance of the primary peak from the centre not only speaks of the time that has elapsed since the explosion occurred in the nucleus, it also speaks of the potential capability of the nucleus of the galaxy for repeating explosions through some efficient process of mass replenishment at the core.     

Water gun vs air gun: A comparison

The water gun is a relatively new marine seismic sound source that produces an acoustic signal by an implosive rather than explosive mechanism. A comparison of the source characteristics of two different-sized water guns with those of conventional air guns shows the the water gun signature is cleaner and much shorter than that of a comparable-sized air gun: about 60–100 milliseconds (ms) for an 80-in³. (1.31-liter (I)) water gun compared with several hundred ms for an 80-in³. (1.31–1) air gun. The source spectra of water guns are richer in high frequencies (>200 Hz) than are those of air guns, but they also have less energy than those of air guns at low frequencies. A comparison between water gun and air gun reflection profiles in both shallow (Long Island Sound)-and deep (western Bermuda Rise)-water settings suggests that the water gun offers a good compromise between very high resolution, limited penetration systems (e.g. 3.5-kHz profilers and sparkers) and the large volume air guns and tuned air gun arrays generally used where significant penetration is required.     

Controls on erosion patterns and sediment transport in a monsoonal,tectonically quiescent drainage,Song Gianh,central Vietnam

The Song Gianh is a small‐sized (~3500 km²), monsoon‐dominated river in northern central Vietnam that can be used to understand how topography and climate control continental erosion. We present major element concentrations, together with Sr and Nd isotopic compositions, of siliciclastic bulk sediments to define sediment provenance and chemical weathering intensity. These data indicate preferential sediment generation in the steep, wetter upper reaches of the Song Gianh. In contrast, detrital zircon U‐Pb ages argue for significant flux from the drier, northern Rao Tro tributary. We propose that this mismatch represents disequilibrium in basin erosion patterns driven by changing monsoon strength and the onset of agriculture across the region. Detrital apatite fission track and ¹⁰Be data from modern sediment support slowing of regional bedrock exhumation rates through the Cenozoic. If the Song Gianh is representative of coastal Vietnam then the coastal mountains may have produced around 132 000–158 000 km³ of the sediment now preserved in the Song Hong‐Yinggehai Basin (17–21% of the total), the primary depocenter of the Red River. This flux does not negate the need for drainage capture in the Red River to explain the large Cenozoic sediment volumes in that basin but does partly account for the discrepancy between preserved and eroded sediment volumes. OSL ages from terraces cluster in the Early Holocene (7.4–8.5 ka), Pre‐Industrial (550–320 year BP) and in the recent past (ca. 150 year BP). The older terraces reflect high sediment production driven by a strong monsoon, whereas the younger are the product of anthropogenic impact on the landscape caused by farming. Modern river sediment is consistently more weathered than terrace sediment consistent with reworking of old weathered soils by agricultural disruption.     

Sea-level change and paleogeographic reconstructions,southern Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Forty-eight new and previously published radiocarbon ages constrain deglacial and postglacial sea levels on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Sea level fell rapidly from its high stand of about +75 m elevation just before 14 000 cal BP (12 000 radiocarbon yrs BP) to below the present shoreline by 13 200 cal BP (11 400 radiocarbon years BP). The sea fell below its present level 1000 years later in the central Strait of Georgia and 2000 years later in the northern Strait of Georgia, reflecting regional differences in ice sheet retreat and downwasting. Direct observations only constrain the low stand to be below ?11 m and above ?40 m. Analysis of the crustal isostatic depression with equations utilizing exponential decay functions appropriate to the Cascadia subduction zone, however, places the low stand at ?30 ± 5 m at about 11 200 cal BP (9800 BP). The inferred low stand for southern Vancouver Island, when compared to the sea-level curve previously derived for the central Strait of Georgia to the northwest, generates differential isostatic depression that is consistent with the expected crustal response between the two regions. Morphologic and sub-bottom features previously interpreted to indicate a low stand of ?50 to ?65 m are re-evaluated and found to be consistent with a low stand of ?30 ± 5 m. Submarine banks in eastern Juan de Fuca Strait were emergent at the time of the low stand, but marine passages persisted between southern Vancouver Island and the mainland. The crustal uplift presently occurring in response to the Late Pleistocene collapse of the southwestern sector of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet amounts to about 0.1 mm/yr. The small glacial isostatic adjustment rate is a consequence of low-viscosity mantle in this tectonically active region.     

Three-dimensional numerical simulations of the Downie Slide to test the influence of shear surface geometry and heterogeneous shear zone stiffness

Massive slow-moving landslides often exhibit deformation patterns which vary spatially across the landslide mass and temporally with changing boundary conditions. Understanding the parameters controlling this behaviour, such as heterogeneous material properties, complex landslide geometry and the distribution of groundwater, is fundamental when making informed design and hazard management decisions. This paper demonstrates that significant improvements to the geomechanical analysis of massive landslides can be achieved through rigorous, three-dimensional numerical modelling. Simulations of the Downie Slide incorporate complex shear zone geometries, multiple water tables and spatial variation of shear zone stiffness parameters to adequately reproduce real slope behaviour observed through an ongoing site monitoring program. These three-dimensional models are not hindered by shortfalls typically associated with two-dimensional analysis, for example the ability to accommodate lateral migration of material, and they out-perform more simplified three-dimensional models where bowl-shaped shear geometries are incapable of reasonably reproducing observed deformation patterns.     

Evaluating roadside rockmasses for rockfall hazards using LiDAR data: optimizing data collection and processing protocols

Highways and railroads situated within rugged terrain are often subjected to the hazard of rockfalls. The task of assessing roadside rockmasses for potential hazards typically involves an on-site visual investigation of the rockmass by an engineer or geologist. At that time, numerous parameters associated with discontinuity orientations and spacing, block size (volume) and shape distributions, slope geometry, and ditch profile are either measured or estimated. Measurements are typically tallied according to a formal hazard rating system, and a hazard level is determined for the site. This methodology often involves direct exposure of the evaluating engineer to the hazard and can also create a potentially non-unique record of the assessed slope based on the skill, knowledge and background of the evaluating engineer. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–based technologies have the capability to produce spatially accurate, high-resolution digital models of physical objects, known as point clouds. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR equipment can collect, at traffic speed, roadside data along highways and rail lines, scanning continual distances of hundreds of kilometres per day. Through the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR, in conjunction with airborne and static systems for problem areas, rockfall hazard analysis workflows can be modified and optimized to produce minimally biased, repeatable results. Traditional rockfall hazard analysis inputs include two distinct, but related sets of variables related to geological or geometric control. Geologically controlled inputs to hazard rating systems include kinematic stability (joint identification/orientation) and rock block shape and size distributions. Geometrically controlled inputs include outcrop shape and size, road, ditch and outcrop profile, road curvature and vehicle line of sight. Inputs from both categories can be extracted or calculated from LiDAR data, although there are some limitations and special sampling and processing considerations related to structural character of the rockmass, as detailed in this paper.     

Variation with Depth in Temperate Seagrass-Associated Fish Assemblages in Southern Victoria,Australia

Variability in the abundance and distribution of seagrass-associated fish assemblages was examined at different depths in a temperate bay in southern Australia. Depth differences in seagrass-associated fish assemblages are poorly known but this information is critical given that seagrass loss can occur at specific depths depending on the cause. Overall, 69 species of fish from 26 families were recorded, with higher species richness in shallow than deep beds, with 12 species found only in deep beds and 22 species found only in shallow beds. While the total fish abundance (i.e. abundance of all species recorded) varied between years and seasons, and to some extent between sites, it was significantly higher in shallow than deep seagrass beds in the majority of cases. Although there was some variation between sites, seagrass tended to be longer and have a higher biomass in shallow than deep beds during both spring and autumn throughout the study. A positive relationship between seagrass biomass/length and total fish abundance/species richness was apparent. Assemblage structure tended to be distinct at each depth, with the largest species recorded in shallow seagrass. Large numbers of small schooling fish, such as atherinids, dominated in shallow seagrass but were not found in deep seagrass. Loss of seagrass could therefore have varying implications for distinct assemblages found at different depths.     

Multi-proxy record of postglacial environmental change, south-central Melville Island, Northwest Territories, Canada

A sediment core from Lake BC01 (75°10.945′N, 111°55.181′W, 225 m asl) on south-central Melville Island, NWT, Canada, provides the first continuous postglacial environmental record for the region. Fossil pollen results indicate that the postglacial landscape was dominated by Poaceae and Salix, typical of a High Arctic plant community, whereas the Arctic herb Oxyria underwent a gradual increase during the late Holocene. Pollen-based climate reconstructions suggests the presence of a cold and dry period ~12,000 cal yr BP, possibly representing the Younger Dryas, followed by warmer and wetter conditions from 11,000 to 5000 cal yr BP, likely reflective of the Holocene Thermal Maximum. The climate then underwent a gradual cooling and drying from 5000 cal yr BP to the present, suggesting a late Holocene neoglacial cooling. Diatom preservation was poor prior to 5000 cal yr BP, when conditions were warmest, suggesting that diatom dissolution may in part be climatically controlled. Diatom concentrations were highest ~4500 cal yr BP but then decreased substantially by 3500 cal yr BP and remained low before recovering slightly in the 20th century. An abrupt warming occurred during the past 70 yr at the site, although the magnitude of this warming did not exceed that of the early Holocene.     

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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