How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman’s correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d^-1). A strong relationship between GPM rainfall and error was found from heavy (~35 mm d^-1) to violent rain (160 mm d^-1). The output of this study provides reference regarding the performance of GPM data for respective hydrology studies in this region.     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

水阳江洪峰与强降水

用1964－1999年水阳江水位和雨量资料，分析水阳江水位、面雨量变化规律和洪峰出现特征。结果表明，6月平均面雨量为241.5mm，7、8月平均面雨量分别为186.5mm、155.7mm。宣城出现13次超警戒水位过程；新河庄出现25次超警戒水位过程，且连续超警戒水位日数长。洪峰出现前一周为连阴雨天气，一周平均面雨量为164.5mm。季内日面雨量存在60天周期变化现象，新河庄日平均水位存在60－120天周期变化；1999年宣城日平均水位的小波分析结果为60天周期变化，与新河庄日平均水位功率谱分析结果一致。     

GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化

该文回顾了中国气象局全球中期数值天气预报系统GRAPES_GFS的研发历程,重点介绍了近年来在GRAPES_GFS研发过程中的重要进展,概要阐述了这些进展对GRAPES_GFS业务:化的贡献。动力框架方面的改进主要包括位温垂直平流的算法、极区滤波方案、标量平流方案、垂直速度衰减（damping）算法、提高模式分辨率等,改善了模式框架的稳定性、计算精度以及质量守恒性。物理过程方面的改进主要包括RRTMG辐射方案、CoLM陆面过程方案、积云对流、边界层过程、双参数云物理方案,以及物理过程的调用计算等,全面提升了模式物理过程的预报能力。全球三维变分同化方面,研发了模式空间三维变分（3DVar）系统、资料质量控制和偏差订正技术、卫星资料同化方面的相关技术等。同时,对目前GRAPES_GFS2.0的预报能力进行了评估,总体来说,该系统各项预报指标全面超越GRAPES_GFS1.0,与T639相比等压面要素预报在对流层也有明显优势,降水、2 m温度等预报也优势明显。     

一次暴雨过程受不同系统影响的动力热力场结构特征

本文使用常规观测资料、卫星云图、自动气象站降水量以及0.25°×0.25°的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对出现在东北地区北部受不同系统影响的连续2d暴雨过程的热力和动力场结构特征展开研究。结果表明:24日为暖锋锋生暴雨,暴雨范围大;25日为台风暴雨,暴雨出现在台风移动路径上,为狭长带状。暴雨是由MCS活动造成的,每次短时强降水均与TBB低值中心相对应,台风倒槽内的MCS强度比暖锋云系内的MCS弱,但是降水强度却更大。台风安比携带大量暖湿空气,其东侧的低空急流向北输送热量和水汽,水汽辐合集中在边界层内,台风暴雨的水汽辐合强度比暖锋暴雨更强烈,所造成的雨强更大。暖锋暴雨期间,小兴安岭迎风坡地形的辐合抬升作用明显;高层强辐散及地形辐合抬升作用对暴雨有较大贡献。台风暴雨期间,低空辐合,特别是水汽辐合作用对暴雨有较大贡献;辐合区位于台风倒槽附近,倒槽表现为冷锋性质。     

The characteristics of ultraviolet radiation in arid and semi-arid regions of China

Measurements of the broadband global solar radiation (R _S) and total ultraviolet radiation (the sum of UV-A and UV-B) were conducted from 2005 to 2010 at 9 sites in arid and semi-arid regions of China. These data were used to determine the temporal variability of UV and UV/R _S and their dependence on the water vapor content and clearness index. The dependence of UV/R _S on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and water vapor content was also investigated. In addition, a simple and efficient empirically model suited for all-weather conditions was developed to estimate UV from R _s. The annual average daily UV level in arid and semi-arid areas is 0.61 and 0.59 MJ m^?2 d^?1, respectively. The highest value (0.66?±?0.25 MJ m^?2 d^?1) was recorded at an arid area at Linze. The lowest value (0.53?±?0.22 MJ m^?2 d^?1) was recorded at a semi-arid area at Ansai. The highest daily value of UV radiation was measured in May, whereas the lowest value was measured in December. The monthly variation of the UV/R _s ratio ranged from 0.41 in Aksu to 0.35 in Qira. The monthly mean value of UV/R _s gradually increased from November and then decreased in August. A small decreasing trend of UV/R _s was observed in the arid and semi-arid regions due to recently increasing amounts of fine aerosol. A simple and efficient empirically model suit for all-weather condition was developed to estimate UV from R _s. The slope a and intercept b of the regression line between the estimated and measured values were close to 1 and zero, respectively. The relative error between the estimated and measured values was less than 11.5%. Application of the model to data collected from different locations in this region also resulted in reasonable estimates of UV.     

商城县水稻生产气候资源分析

利用1971-2000年气象资料和水稻生产资料,分析了商城县水稻各生育期的热量资源、水分资源、光能资源及影响水稻产量的气候因子,并提出了在水稻生产中防御气象灾害的措施和途径,为以后水稻良种的选育和推广提供参考,对有效防御气象灾害,促进商城县水稻稳产、高产具有重要指导意义.     

1960—2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征

采用区域性极端低温事件客观识别技术对1960—2009年的区域性极端低温事件进行检测,并分析其空间分布和时间演变特征。结果表明：区域性极端低温事件指标中最低温度和几何中心纬度的频次分布为双峰特征,发生频次较高的纬度主要位于30°N和42°N附近,且1980年代中期以前南北两个带并存,之后则以30°N附近为主;1960—2009年事件的发生频次、强度和最大覆盖面积等呈总体减弱趋势,在1980年代后期存在显著的转折,1990年代后期变化逐渐趋于平缓,并且这种变化主要是由占总数10%的持续时间长和空间范围广的事件作用的结果。此外,对体现事件多方面影响的综合指标进行等级划分并分析其变化特征。     

水平离散网格与大气运动

从线性浅水方程组出发,在Arakawa A-E网格和z网格上,从频率和群速方面讨论了这六种网格对大气中的两种重要的波动：惯性重力波和Rossby波的描述能力。结果表明：C、z、E网格比其它网格产生的歪曲都要小。     

包头山区流域面雨量的实现及最大洪峰流量的估计

利用T213数值预报产品建立包头市短期降雨预报方程,通过地理信息系统,在Citystar4.0版本软件的支持下,实现大青山区降水随高度的分布模式,计算出主要山区沟河的流域面雨量和降水总量,估计洪峰流量。在GIS(地理信息系统)环境下,研究山区面雨量的预报,通过建立包头市大青山区山体高度降雨量分布的经验公式,得到实现山区沟河流域面的面雨量,最终得到各个沟河流域的最大洪峰流量的估计。