Investigation of three-dimensional circulation and hydrography over the Pearl River Estuary of China using a nested-grid coastal circulation model

The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in South China's Guangdong Province is a subtropical estuary with highly irregular topography and dynamically complicated circulations. A nested-grid coastal circulation modelling system is used in this study to examine dynamic responses of the PRE to tides, meteorological forcing and buoyancy forcing. The nested-grid modelling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and consists of three downscaling subcomponents: including an outer-most model with a coarse horizontal resolution of ~7 km for simulating tidally forced and wind-driven surface elevations and depth-mean currents over the China Seas from Bohai Sea to the northern South China Sea and an innermost model with a fine resolution of ~1.2 km for simulating the 3D coastal circulation and hydrography over the PRE and adjacent coastal waters. Model results during the winter northeast monsoon surge in January and super typhoon Koryn in June of 1993 are used to demonstrate that the 3D coastal circulation and hydrographic distributions in the PRE are affected by tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with river discharge from the Pearl River with significant seasonal and synoptic variabilities.     

On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup,stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS) based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS), is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.     

库姆塔格沙漠的“羽毛状沙丘”形态的观测

参照卫星照片和地形图,实地观测了库姆塔格沙漠“羽毛状沙丘”分布区域的地貌。新月型“沙垄”是该区域的主导性地貌类型,垄间地形波状起伏。如果将“沙垄”喻为“羽轴”,垄间的波状起伏地形为“羽枝”,则可构成卫星照片所显示的“羽毛状沙丘”。新月型“沙垄”的走向为NE-SW,由新月形沙丘前一沙丘的迎风坡与后一沙丘的东翼相连而成,高3~19m,宽约50m,长15~22km。“垄”间起伏地形的波长为100~300m,振幅为40~100cm,与“沙垄”成60~105°夹角。在波状起伏地形的波峰与波谷过渡区堆积颜色较浅的细沙,厚2~7cm,构成了“大沙波”。实地观测的“羽毛状沙丘”的形态与卫星照片显示的形态有一定差异。     

西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析

应用西藏1952~1995年温度序列资料, 对其基本气候特征、年代变化、气候突变、振荡周期、异常冷暖、变化趋势等进行了分析.结果表明:年与各季气温大都具有3个暖期和2个冷期, 60年代是最冷的10年, 以秋季降温最明显, 80年代中后期至90年代气温偏高. 22年、11年、3~4年是年与各季气温较为显著的周期.气候突变出现在60年代初和80年代初. 60年代、70年代多异常偏冷年, 80年代多异常偏暖年, 多发生在夏季和冬季, 90年代, 大多数年份发生气温异常. 40年来, 西藏年平均气温以0.065 ℃/10a的倾向率上升, 近10年春秋季增温率最大.     

经济预测模型在土地规划中的应用与分析

主要介绍土地规划时需用到的几种预测模型 ,具体阐述了几种模型的原理 ,并以抚州地区的总人口历史数据为例 ,进行实际的预测与分析 ,从而总结各种模型的优缺点 ,选择最合适的土地规划预测模型。     

Electrical Struture of the Crust in Manas Earthquake Area,Xinjiang,China

Magnetotelluric sounding data obtalned recently in Manas earthquake area were processed. Inthe result, curves of apparent resistivity, impedance Phase, skewness and optimum rotationangle versus period and the real magnetic induction vectors were obtained. Then the data ofall measuring points were interpreted by 2D automatic inversion. The result indicates thatalong the sounding profile the shallow crust can be divided into 5 segments and the deep crustcan be divided into 3 segments, with faults or deep-seated fault zones as the contactboundaries between them. The sedimentary cover along the profile extents down to depthabout 12 km in maximum and a low-resistivity body exists in the crust in southern section ofthe profile. The interpretation results are well consistent with geological and othergeophysical data. The Manas M7. 7 earthquake occurred near a contact zone where theelectrical structure of the crust sharply changes.     

桂林上泥盆统融县组灰岩中的鸟眼构造

从形态上将桂林融县组灰岩中鸟眼构造分为四种: 颗粒状鸟眼构造、长条状鸟眼构造、蠕虫状鸟眼构造和不规则状鸟眼构造,并阐述了它们各自的特征、共生情况以及在产状上与灰岩性质的关系;分析了鸟眼构造的成因,划分出6种成因类型,深入阐明了各种类型的特征、形成环境和形成过程中的影响因素;指出了鸟眼构造所具有的多种地质意义。      

新疆建筑工程设计中风压研究及其应用

应用熵最大原理导出的概率模式研究了新疆建筑工程设计中最大风速的分布规律 ,并通过近100个气象观测站36年(1961～1996年)资料的分析 ,发现新疆最大风速若干规律性 ,在此基础上 ,建立了新疆风压系数预测模式为 :W。=0.0613e -0.0001h ,以预测模式和概率模式揭示了新疆风压分布特征。结果表明 :新疆大多数气象观测站的最大风速遵循Г分布 ;新疆风压系数随海拔高度的增加呈指数率减少 ;新疆风压分布特征为 :北疆大于南疆 ,西部、东部大于中部 ;高山和高原地区大于中低山区。风口、河谷风压值最大。塔里木油田地区风压特征为 :由东北向西南递减。这对于新疆建筑工程设计及相关的电力、公路等工程设计都具有重要的科学意义和使用价值。     

乌鲁木齐地区相对湿度的气候分析及预报

通过对乌鲁木齐地区相对湿度的气候分析 ,结合特殊天气情况下其变化规律 ,对乌鲁木齐地区相对湿度提出了较为客观的预报方法