Copula‐based joint probability function for PGA and CAV: a case study from Taiwan

This study aims to develop a joint probability function of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) for the strong ground motion data from Taiwan. First, a total of 40,385 earthquake time histories are collected from the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. Then, the copula approach is introduced and applied to model the joint probability distribution of PGA and CAV. Finally, the correlation results using the PGA‐CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals are compared. The results indicate that there exists a strong positive correlation between PGA and CAV. For both the PGA and CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals, the multivariate lognormal distribution composed of two lognormal marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula provides adequate characterization of the PGA‐CAV joint distribution observed in Taiwan. This finding demonstrates the validity of the conventional two‐step approach for developing empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) of multiple ground motion parameters from the copula viewpoint. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用ECRS方法对郯庐断裂带中南段地震的跟踪研究

基于地震学多参数的地震对应概率谱(ECRS)方法及此前研究成果,对郯庐断裂带中段和南段(中南段)至2015年9月份的地震异常特征进行了跟踪研究。时间跟踪研究结果表明,目标地震均在震前出现多参数的综合高值异常,且目前其综合指数处于异常上升状态。空间跟踪研究结果同样显示,研究区目标地震发生前大多有高值异常出现并逐渐增强,地震多发生在异常区域内或者附近。     

高邮-宝应4.9级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征初步分析

针对高邮-宝应4.9级地震发生前后附近地区未发生其它中等以上地震、地震事件孤立及周边地磁台站分布较密有利于研究地震地磁异常时空特征的特点,较为系统地分析总结了该地震发生前后地磁谐波振幅比的变化特征,研究结果进一步验证了目前对地磁谐波振幅比异常特征的认识,即地磁谐波振幅比异常特征表现出与地电阻率类似的下降-转折-恢复上升的异常变化过程,地震一般发生在异常转折或恢复上升过程中,距震中较近的台站会出现不同步现象——南北向与东西向的不同步以及长短周期的不同步。     

Spatial distribution analysis of landslides triggered by the 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake,China

The 2013-04-20 Lushan earthquake(seismic magnitude Ms 7.0 according to the State Seismological Bureau)induced a large number of landslides.In this study,spatial characteristics of landslides are developed by interpreting digital aerial photography data.Seven towns near the epicenter,with an area of about 11.11 km2,were severely affected by the earthquake,and 703 landslides were identified from April 24,2013 aerial photography data over an area of 1.185 km2.About 55.56% of the landslide area was less than 1000 m2,whereas about 3.23 % was more than 10,000 m2.Rock falls and shallow landslides were the most commonly observed types in the study area,and were primarily located in the center of Lushan County.Most landslide areas were widely distributed near river channels and along roads.Five main factors were chosen to study the distribution characteristics of landslides:elevation,slope gradients,fault,geologic unit and river system.The spatial distribution of coseismal landslides is studied statistically using both landslide point density(LPD),defined as the number of landslides(LS Number)per square kilometer,and landslide area density(LAD),interpreted as the percentage of landslides area affected by earthquake.The results show that both LPD and LAD have strong positive correlations with five main factors.Most landslides occurred in the gradient range of 40°-50° and an elevation range of 1.0-1.5 km above sea level.Statistical results also indicate that landslides were mainly formed in soft rocks such as mudstone and sandstone,and concentrated in IX intensity areas.     

内蒙古中东部达里湖湖岸堤记录的12.5 cal ka BP以来湖面波动过程*

内蒙古中东部位于东亚夏季风过渡区,对气候变化响应敏感。广泛发育的湖泊沉积物提供了全新世以来的环境变化的理想材料。湖岸沉积物直接记录的古水位,与高分辨率的湖心钻孔记录相结合,有助于全面认识古气候的变化历史和湖面波动的定量重建。运用AMS¹⁴C测年和GPS、DEM及1︰5万地形图等相结合的方法确定了达里湖北侧湖岸堤的年代和高程,并结合湖岸堤剖面的沉积序列指示的湖面变化过程,重建了12.5 cal ka BP以来达里湖的波动历史。12.5 cal ka BP,达里湖湖面海拔高度约为1253,m,至12.3 cal ka BP湖面经历短暂上升,至海拔1266,m左右;之后湖面下降,至全新世早期(11.2 cal ka BP),水位降至1254,m左右;随后湖面开始逐步上升,10.7 cal ka BP湖面水位稳定在1274,m左右;全新世中期湖面继续上升至某一高度(至少在1291,m)后,于全新世晚期4.8 calka BP 湖面高度降至1279,m,并于4.6 cal ka BP湖面继续下降至1275,m的高度。通过对比湖心钻孔记录的湖泊波动历史以及区域湖泊沉积记录,认为达里湖的水位波动受东亚季风活动的影响,具有区域的一致性。达里湖的水位变化较区域内的其他湖泊更为强烈,认为除了受区域气候变化的影响外,达里湖全新世晚期的湖面下降可能还与区域内强烈的构造活动和西拉木伦河溯源侵蚀导致区域水系的改变有关。     

承德地区石炭-二叠系层序岩相古地理

将层序地层学方法应用于岩相古地理研究中,首先建立承德地区石炭一二叠系层序地层格架,然后以四级层序为基本编图单元,编制岩相古地理图。分析了石炭一二叠系的沉积演化特征,讨论了层序地层、岩相古地理与聚煤作用的关系。在研究区识别出2个三级层序、5个四级层序、8个五级层序;揭示了海平面升降变化对成煤沼泽发育的控制,认为层序DS1的海侵或海退最大点处的四级层序Ⅲ控制了研究区两个主采煤层的发育。该结论对该区聚煤规律的研究和煤炭资源预测有一定的参考价值。     

基于VBA的储层评价数据处理方法

针对储层评价工作中存在数据处理繁琐、易出错的问题,根据参数间的内在关系,利用Excel内嵌的VBA语言编写了储层评价数据处理程序.该程序以井斜数据、井数据、分层数据、砂体数据、测井解释成果表及夹层数据为基础,分析储层评价工作中数据间的关系,设计了相应的算法,实现了井斜校正、按层统计砂体厚度及计算砂地比、夹层统计、自动扣除夹层及有效厚度计算、储层特征参数和储量计算参数集总、坐标添加及常用绘图软件数据格式转化等功能.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

Massively parallel spatial point pattern analysis: Ripley’s K function accelerated using graphics processing units

This study presents a massively parallel spatial computing approach that uses general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs) to accelerate Ripley’s K function for univariate spatial point pattern analysis. Ripley’s K function is a representative spatial point pattern analysis approach that allows for quantitatively evaluating the spatial dispersion characteristics of point patterns. However, considerable computation is often required when analyzing large spatial data using Ripley’s K function. In this study, we developed a massively parallel approach of Ripley’s K function for accelerating spatial point pattern analysis. GPUs serve as a massively parallel platform that is built on many-core architecture for speeding up Ripley’s K function. Variable-grained domain decomposition and thread-level synchronization based on shared memory are parallel strategies designed to exploit concurrency in the spatial algorithm of Ripley’s K function for efficient parallelization. Experimental results demonstrate that substantial acceleration is obtained for Ripley’s K function parallelized within GPU environments.     

历史大地震破裂区地震危险性的地震活动性定量分析—以南北地震带中北段为例

尽管地震空区理论在中长期地震预测中起着重要的作用,但大地震复发在时间上的丛集或非线性行为使得在中长期地震预测研究中依然需要同时考虑非地震空区的、历史地震破裂区的潜在大地震危险性。为了探索能基于观测资料分析的、鉴别历史地震破裂区（包括历史、史前地震破裂的地震空区）大地震复发危险性的技术方法,我们在南北地震带中北段挑选出8个具有不同离逝时间的历史大地震破裂区,分析这些破裂区现代地震活动性的量化特征,以初步探索判定潜在大地震危险性紧迫程度的地震活动性方法。结果主要显示,反映地震序列衰减状态的p值和反映地震活动率的a值与这些历史破裂区最晚大地震的离逝时间有较好的对应关系,但也有部分破裂区可能由于复杂的断层结构与运动性质,对应关系并不明确;反映构造应力积累状况的b值则难于反映离逝时间演化阶段的信息。b值的时间扫描结果显示,大部分历史破裂区的b值随时间演化平稳,但1879年甘肃武都8级地震破裂区的b值则表现为明显的涨落,并存在持续20年的降低趋势。对比分析认为,1933年四川茂县7.5级、1976年四川松潘-平武两次7.2级地震破裂区目前仍处于序列衰减期,不具备再次发生7级以上地震的背景;公元842年迭部7级地震破裂区北缘低b值的玛曲段比迭部段更具危险性;1879年武都8级地震破裂区的b值持续降低也可能反映该区处于新的一轮孕震期。