A study of arctic sea ice and sea‐level pressure using POP and neural network methods

Abstract

We examine Arctic sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and sea‐level pressure (SLP) data using principal oscillation pattern (POP) and neural network methods. The POP method extracts oscillating patterns from multivariate time series, each pattern being characterized by an oscillation period and a decay time. Predictions can be made for patterns whose decay time is comparable with the period. For both the SIC and SLP, however, the decay times are much shorter than the oscillation periods, and therefore the forcast skill is poor. A neural network is a model of the learning behaviour of a living neural system. Presented with training data, a neural network can learn the linear or non‐linear rules embedded in the data. We trained neural networks with sea‐ice and sea‐level pressure data, and estimated the forecast skill using a cross‐validation technique. The neural networks did not exhibit forecast skill significantly better than that of persistence. We contrast the Arctic situation with previous studies in which POP and neural networks were successfully used to forecast El Niño at lead times up to 6 months. Reasons for the lack of skill in both methods are discussed.     

CHINA’S FOUR MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS

China lies in East-Asian monsoon region,which is one of the well-known active monsoon zones around the world.Monsoon anomaly results in frequent natural disasters,such as drought,torrential rain and flood.In 1998,joint intensified observations for 4 major meteorological scientific experiments have been carried out over Chinese major monsoon affected areas.A number of valuable data have been obtained and some observational facts have come out after initial analysis.The present paper is to give an introduction to the 4 major meteorological scientific experiments conducted in 1998 in China.including its origin and scientific goals,implementation and planning,equipment and progress,and initial findings from the important observational facts.It aims to provide a comprehensive report on the progress of the above experiments for those who are interested in.     

The Origin and Acceleration of ~3He and Heavy Ions in the 2000 July 14 Event

1INTRODUCTIONEnrichment of3He and heavy ions(i.e.,Ne,Mg,Si and Fe),characteristic of impulsive?ares,have beenstudied for more than three decades.It is found that they are generally associated with nonthermal energeticelectron-rich events(Reames et al.1988;Reames1999and references therein;Ho et al.2001;Wang et al.2006)and are related to the peculiar ratio of charge to mass(Mazur et al.1996;Reames1999).Althoughthe abundance of3He ions is not correlated with the abundance of heavy ions,s…     

GROUNDWATER QUALITY AND CONTAMINATION INDEX MAPPING IN CHANGCHUN CITY, CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONGroundwater in Changchun City assures about 45% of total water supply. Drinking water supply of Chang-chun City was mostly served by surface water from Shitoukoumen and Xinlicheng reservoirs located in the east and south of the city (ZHANG, 1993). However, with the development of urban construction the ground-water especially from deep boreholes is also used for drinking purpose in suburban areas. The urbanization process in Changchun City threatens the groundwater quali…     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rotary spectrum analysis of tidal current in the southern Yellow Sea

A complete set of one-month Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) current data at a station in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) is analyzed using the rotary spectrum method. The results revealed different rotary properties between barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents. The barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents rotate elliptically counter-clockwise and clockwise, respectively. Meanwhile, baroclinic bottom tidal currents are almost along-isobath. The baroclinic cross-isobath velocities attenuate quickly at the bottom, implying important effects of bottom topography on the cross-isobath motions.     

Application of nonlinear optimization technique to back analyses of deep excavation

This study presents a nonlinear optimization technique (NOT) for conducting the back analyses of geotechnical engineering problems based on the field observations. Additional auxiliary techniques are incorporated to enhance the convergence and stability of the NOT. The developed NOT and additional auxiliary techniques are incorporated into a finite element code and then applied to the back analysis of excavation-induced wall deflection. A number of hypothetical excavation cases with various scenarios of stratigraphy and two quality excavation case histories are used to validate the developed NOT, in which the dominant soil parameters are treated as target parameters. Results show that the wall deflections of all hypothetical and actual excavation cases at each stage can be accurately and efficiently back-figured. The developed NOT has a potential to be an useful tool for preventing the building damage through accurately and efficiently predicting the excavation-induced deformations at subsequent stages.     

Geochemical characteristics and LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb age of the Lanhualing granite in Ningguo,Anhui ProvinceEI北大核心CSCD

The Lanhualing tungsten-molybdenum deposit is a skarn-type deposit located in Ningguo county, Anhui province. This deposit is mainly hosted in the Yinzhubu Formation and the Yanwashan Formation of Ordovician, and genetically related to the Lanhualing granite. The Lanhualing granite belongs to high-K calc-alkaline series with high alkali (Na2O+K2O=4.00%-7.03%), SiO2 (67.87%-74.92%) and MgO (0.62%-1.23%) contents. The granitic rocks show right-dipping chondrite normalized REE patterns with weak δEu anomalies. The granitic rocks are relatively enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE). The ore-bearing granite was dated at 148.17±0.94 Ma by LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb method. The late Yanshanian is the main tungsten mineralization epoch in the South Anhui-north Jiangxi area; and indeed, the Dongyuan, Zhuxi, Yangchuling, Dahutang and other large and super-large tungsten deposits were formed in this period. Geochemical Characteristics of the Lanhualing granite indicate a crustal source but with mantle input under tectonic regime of compression thickening. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.     

目标样本粒度判据在海湾环境演变研究中的运用——以福建前湖湾为例

高密度采集福建前湖湾海岸剖面133个泥沙样品做粒度分析,其频率曲线显示多种粒度分布特征,预示多种沉积环境的变化。采集研究剖面周边海滩、河口浅滩、河口、滨海沼泽和海岸沙丘等已知环境的样品作为目标样本。将目标样本沉积参数平均粒径(Mz)、标准偏差(σ)、峰态(Kg)设为判别参数,利用Excel计算海岸剖面样品与目标样本参数的距离,筛选最小距离样品,归为已知目标样本的同类。据此,分析了海岸剖面蕴含的6个沉积环境变化阶段。利用剖面底部淤泥测年14C=(328 15±170)a BP,和剖面上部泥炭测年14C=(24 130±100)a BP,了解这一变化发生的年代。自(32 815±170)a BP以来,前湖湾经历了河口浅滩-河口、沙丘-河口-滨海沼泽-海滩-沙丘等海岸环境演变过程。     

南极半岛东北海域表层沉积有机质来源及其沉积环境

采用气相色谱-质谱技术对南极半岛东北海域海底表层沉积物的总有机碳、有机质碳同位素(δ13 Corg)和生物标志化合物等进行了测试分析。研究区表层沉积物总有机碳TOC平均值高于现代深海沉积物中的平均含量。δ13 Corg的变化说明该海域有机碳来源呈海洋水生生物来源和陆源混合的特征。正构烷烃的峰型分布、主峰碳、饱和烃轻重比C-21/C+22和(C21+C22)/(C28+C29)、甾烷组合和藿烷组合证实研究区西部表层沉积物有机质来源以陆源高等植物为主,其陆源可能来自于附近的南极半岛和南舍得兰群岛;研究区东部表层沉积物有机质来源偏以海源为主,且以低等浮游生物、藻类及细菌生物等海源输入为主。碳优势指数(Carbon preference index,CPI)、奇偶优势指数(Odd-even Predominance,OEP)和甾烷C29ααα20S/(20S+20R)比值显示研究区D1-7站位和D5-9沉积物有机质演化程度较高,D5-2和D2-4站位的有机质演化程度低,其他站位介于中间状态。饱和烃中姥鲛烷、植烷及其比值(Pr/Ph)等组合显示研究区西部以氧化-弱还原的沉积环境为主,其可能是受高温低盐别林斯高晋海水流和附近火山喷发的影响所致;研究区东部以还原—强还原沉积环境为主,可能是受低温高盐的威德尔底层水(WSBW)和威德尔海深层水(WSDW)影响所致。