Modeling and observations of high-frequency flow variability and internal waves at a Caribbean reef spawning aggregation site

The characteristics and forcing mechanisms of high-frequency flow variations (periods of minutes to days) were investigated near Gladden Spit, a reef promontory off the coast of Belize. Direct field observations and a high-resolution (50-m grid size) numerical ocean model are used to describe the flow variations that impact the initial dispersion of eggs and larvae from this site, which serves as a spawning aggregation site for many species of reef fishes. Idealized sensitivity model experiments isolate the role of various processes, such as internal waves, wind, tides, and large-scale flow variations. The acute horizontal curvature and steep topography of the reef intensify the flow, create small-scale convergence and divergence zones, and excite high-frequency oscillations and internal waves. Although the tides in this area are relatively small (∼10-cm amplitude), the model simulations show that tides can excite significant high-frequency flow variations near the reef, which suggests that the preference of fish to aggregate and spawn in the days following the time of full moon may not be coincidental. Even small variations in remote flows (2–5 cm s⁻¹) due to say, meso-scale eddies, are enough to excite near-reef oscillations. Model simulations and the observations further suggest that the spawning site at the tip of the reef provides initial strong dispersion for eggs, but then the combined influence of the along-isobath flow and the westward wind will transport the eggs and larvae downstream of Gladden Spit toward less turbulent region, which may contribute to enhanced larval survival.     

A generalized coordinate ocean model and a comparison of the bottom boundary layer dynamics in terrain-following and in z-level grids

Sensitivity studies with a new generalized coordinate ocean model are performed in order to compare the behavior of bottom boundary layers (BBLs) when terrain-following (sigma or combined sigma and z-level) or z-level vertical grids are used, but most other numerical aspects remain unchanged. The model uses a second-order turbulence closure scheme that provides surface and BBL mixing and results in a quite realistic climatology and deep water masses after 100 year simulations with a coarse resolution (1° × 1°) basin-scale terrain-following grid. However, with the same turbulence scheme but using a z-level grid, the model was unable to produce dense water masses in the deep ocean. The latter is a known problem for coarse resolution z-level models, unless they include highly empirical BBL schemes.A set of dense water overflow experiments with high-resolution grids (10 and 2.5 km) are used to investigate the influence of model parameters such as horizontal diffusivity, vertical mixing, horizontal resolution, and vertical resolution on the simulation of bottom layers for the different coordinate systems. Increasing horizontal diffusivity causes a thinner BBL and a bottom plume that extends further downslope in a sigma grid, but causes a thicker BBL and limited downslope plume extension in a z-level grid. A major difference in the behavior of the BBL in the two grids is due to the larger vertical mixing generated by the turbulence scheme over the step-like topography in the z-level grid, compared to a smaller vertical mixing and a more stably stratified BBL in the sigma grid. Therefore, the dense plume is able to maintain its water mass better and penetrates farther downslope in the sigma grid than in the z-level grid. Increasing horizontal and vertical resolution in the z-level grid converges the results toward those obtained by a much coarser resolution sigma coordinate grid, but some differences remain due to the basic differences in the mixing process in the BBL.     

Landslide hazard of slopes of sewage treatment plant lagoons constructed in colluvium deposits

A landslide occurred in colluvial deposits at one of the lagoons of Wadi Es-Sir Sewage Treatment Plant Project (under construction) in Jordan. This paper summarizes the geotechnical investigations conducted at three lagoon sites in the project area including the failed lagoon. Results of stability analyses are presented along with recommendations to stabilize the slided lagoon and surrounding areas.     

Analysis of the changing patterns of seasonal flooding along the U.S. East Coast

Ocean Dynamics - Sea level rise (SLR) is causing acceleration in the frequency and duration of minor tidal flooding (often called “sunny-day” or “nuisance” flooding) along...     

On the predictability of high water level along the US East Coast: can the Florida Current measurement be an indicator for flooding caused by remote forcing?

Recent studies show that in addition to wind and air pressure effects, a significant portion of the variability of coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast can be attributed to non-local factors such as variations in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic circulation; these variations can cause unpredictable coastal flooding. The Florida Current transport (FCT) measurement across the Florida Straits monitors those variations, and thus, the study evaluated the potential of using the FCT as an indicator for anomalously high water level along the coast. Hourly water level data from 12 tide gauge stations over 12 years are used to construct records of maximum daily water levels (MDWL) that are compared with the daily FCT data. An empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach is used to divide the data into high-frequency modes (periods T < ～30 days), middle-frequency modes (～30 days < T < ～90 days), and low-frequency modes (～90 days < T < ～1 year). Two predictive measures are tested: FCT and FCT change (FCC). FCT is anti-correlated with MDWL in high-frequency modes but positively correlated with MDWL in low-frequency modes. FCC on the other hand is always anti-correlated with MDWL for all frequency bands, and the high water signal lags behind FCC for almost all stations, thus providing a potential predictive skill (i.e., whenever a weakening trend is detected in the FCT, anomalously high water is expected along the coast over the next few days). The MDWL-FCT correlation in the high-frequency modes is maximum in the lower Mid-Atlantic Bight, suggesting influence from the meandering Gulf Stream after it separates from the coast. However, the correlation in low-frequency modes is maximum in the South Atlantic Bight, suggesting impact from variations in the wind pattern over subtropical regions. The middle-frequency and low-frequency modes of the FCT seem to provide the best predictor for medium to large flooding events; it is estimated that ～10–25% of the sea level variability in those modes can be attributed to variations in the FCT. An example from Hurricane Joaquin (September–October, 2015) demonstrates how an offshore storm that never made landfall can cause a weakening of the FCT and unexpected high water level and flooding along the US East Coast. A regression-prediction model based on the MDWL-FCT correlation shows some skill in estimating high water levels during past storms; the water level prediction is more accurate for slow-moving and offshore storms than it is for fast-moving storms. The study can help to improve water level prediction since current storm surge models rely on local wind but may ignore remote forcing.     

Hurricane-induced motions and interaction with ocean currents

Hurricanes produce mixing and flow divergences (and convergences) that alter the upper-ocean heat content (OHC), which in turn affects the storm. Ocean observations under a hurricane are rare, making it difficult to validate forecast models. Past research have mainly focused on OHC-changes by vertical mixing and tacitly assumed that horizontal transports are slowly varying. Moreover, effects of coastal boundaries on ocean responses to hurricanes are generally omitted. This work uses satellite data to detect and verify forecast isopycnal motions under hurricane Wilma (Oct/16–26/2005) in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The model is then used to show that Wilma-induced convergences in northwestern Caribbean Sea produce increased Yucatan-Channel transport into the Gulf ahead of the storm, and the Yucatan–Loop Current front diverts most of this heat around the Loop. This response is distinct from that of an ocean without the Loop, for which warming is widespread north of the channel. These intricate ocean responses can impact hurricane predictions.     

Baroclinic tidal flows and inundation processes in Cook Inlet, Alaska: numerical modeling and satellite observations

A wetting and drying (WAD) algorithm is implemented in a baroclinic three-dimensional ocean circulation model of Cook Inlet, Alaska, where large tidal ranges (≈10 m) regularly expose extensive mudflats. The model includes tides and wind- and buoyancy-induced flows. In the upper Inlet, the model successfully simulates large amplification of tides and propagation of fast (3 ∼ 4 m s⁻¹) tidal bores over shallow mudflats. The simulated return flows during ebb expose large areas (∼100 km²) of the mudflats. Medium-resolution (250- and 500-m) images obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites were used to verify the model results by identifying the location, extent, and temporal changes of the exposed mudflat regions. The results demonstrate the value of operational, medium-resolution remote sensing data in evaluating the WAD model. Sensitivity tests show that WAD produces approximately 20% larger tidal amplitude and 10% slower phase than the corresponding experiment without WAD. In the deep channel of the central Inlet, the confluence of saline water of the lower Inlet with brackish water from rivers and melting ice from land around the upper Inlet produces a salinity front. At the simulated front, strong vertical circulation cells and surface convergence and currents develop, especially during the flood. The characteristics resemble those of “rip tides” often observed in this region.     

Rapid incision of a small,coarse and steep fan‐delta in response to base‐level fall: the case of Nahal Qedem,the Dead Sea,Israel

The Dead Sea has been continuously dropping 0·4–1·0 m yr^?1 since the middle of the 20th century and thus provides a unique field laboratory for studying in real time the response of drainage systems to a non‐tectonic base‐level fall. The aim of this work is to study the short‐term ongoing erosive response to a rapid base‐level drop in a small, steep‐fronted, erodible fan‐delta setting. The work explores the controls of the steep Qedem fan‐delta, guided by its clinoform structure, on its incision. Longitudinal profiles of the fan‐delta and of its entrenched channel were measured in the field. Sedimentary facies changes – fluviatile, shallow lacustrine and beach – were followed along exposures. The existence of large boulders provided an opportunity to examine the uncertain role of armouring and boulder flux on incision. The field study was combined with digital elevation models (DEMs) that were extracted from pairs of overlapping aerial photos. Maps of erosion and deposition were prepared using a change detection algorithm. The longitudinal profile of the entrenched channel was found to be steep and linear. The outlet temporarily ‘hangs’ elevated and ungraded above the retreating lake level, indicating years without incision flow events, which cause lags in response to the rapid lake level drop. In spite of the large boulders, the small drainage basin and precipitation volume over the basin of the Qedem, the recorded vertical incision rates in the unconsolidated sediments are as high as 0·8 m yr^?1, i.e. similar to those of the largest wadis draining to the Dead Sea. The steep front of the fan‐delta is suggested to be a main factor controlling the efficient incision. A unique transport mechanism of rolling boulders, following undercutting, contributed to the entrenchment efficiency. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea level variability in the Gulf of Mexico since 1900 and its link to the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Strait flows

The long-term variability of sea level and surface flows in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is studied using global monthly sea level reconstruction (RecSL) for 1900–2015. The study explored the long-term relation between the dynamics of the GOM and inflows/outflows through the Yucatan Channel (YC) and the Florida Straits (FS). The results show a century-long trend of increased mean velocity and variability in the Loop Current (LC); however, no significant upward trend was found in the YC and FS flows, only increased variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface height found spatial patterns dominated by variations in the LC and temporal variations on time scales ranging from a few months to multidecadal. The time evolution of each EOF mode of sea level is correlated with the velocity of either the LC, the YC, or the FS or some combination of the different flows. The mean sea level difference between the GOM and the northwestern Caribbean Sea was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with unusually high differences during the 1970s when the NAO index was low and the Atlantic Ocean circulation was weak. Extreme peaks in SL difference coincide with the extension of the LC and the seasonal eddy shedding pattern. The observed seasonal cycle in the extension area of the LC as obtained from 20 years of altimeter data is significantly correlated (R = 0.63; confidence level = 98%) with the seasonal YC flow obtained from 116 years of the RecSL data. However, the same LC extension record had lower correlation (R = 0.45; confidence level = 90%) with the observed YC transport obtained from direct moored measurements over ~ 5 years, indicating the need for much longer measurements, since the LC extension and the YC flow are strongly affected by interannual and decadal variations. The study demonstrates the usefulness of even a coarse-resolution reconstruction for studies of regional ocean variability and climate change over longer time scales than current direct observations allow.