Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.     

Improved Estimates of Wide-Ranging Sea Surface Temperature from GMS S-VISSR Data

We have developed an algorithm to estimate the wide-ranging Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from the GMS-5 (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) S-VISSR (Stretched-Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer). Better SST estimates are realized by averaging the temporal variation of the VISSR calibration table and decreasing noise of the split-window terms using a spatial filter. The effects of the satellite zenith angle were examined in detail for better estimates, and VISSR-derived SSTs with root-mean-square (rms) error of 0.8 K were achieved using a new algorithm. The accuracy of SST estimates has been improved by using the temporal-spatial average of the split-window terms. Using the new techniques, we demonstrate that the hourly wide-ranging SST image data can be used to study the daily variations of SSTs in the Northern and Southern Pacific Oceans.     

Adjustment of Wind Waves to Sudden Changes of Wind Speed

An experiment was conducted in a small wind-wave facility at the Ocean Engineering Laboratory, California, to address the following question: when the wind speed changes rapidly, how quickly and in what manner do the short wind waves respond? To answer this question we have produced a very rapid change in wind speed between U _low (4.6 m s^?1) and U _high (7.1 m s^?1). Water surface elevation and air turbulence were monitored up to a fetch of 5.5 m. The cycle of increasing and decreasing wind speed was repeated 20 times to assure statistical accuracy in the measurement by taking an ensemble mean. In this way, we were able to study in detail the processes by which the young laboratory wind waves adjust to wind speed perturbations. We found that the wind-wave response occurs over two time scales determined by local equilibrium adjustment and fetch adjustment, Δt ₁/T = O(10) and Δt ₂/T = O(100), respectively, in the current tank. The steady state is characterized by a constant non-dimensional wave height (H/gT ² or equivalently, the wave steepness for linear gravity waves) depending on wind speed. This equilibrium state was found in our non-steady experiments to apply at all fetches, even during the long transition to steady state, but only after a short initial relaxation Δt ₁/T of O(10) following a sudden change in wind speed. The complete transition to the new steady state takes much longer, Δt ₂/T of O(100) at the largest fetch, during which time energy propagates over the entire fetch along the rays (dx/dt = c _g) and grows under the influence of wind pumping. At the same time, frequency downshifts. Although the current study is limited in scale variations, we believe that the suggestion that the two adjustment time scales are related to local equilibrium adjustment and fetch adjustment is also applicable to the ocean.     

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents in Puget Sound

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents are studied using current meter records obtained at six moorings across the main basin of Puget Sound. High correlations between wind speeds and currents are found near the surface and at mid-depths of about 100 m. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis applied to the axial currents in 1984 and 1985 shows that mode 1, containing over 60% of the variance, is highly correlated with wind speed even without any near surface current records. When near surface stratification is strong, direct wind effects are limited to the upper 30 m with counter currents in the lower layer indicating a baroclinic response. The transport in the lower layer almost balances the transport in the upper layer. When near surface stratification is weak, direct wind effects on currents can be detected to about 100 m. In this case, there is no clear and consistent depth at which one can separate the upper from the lower layer. Time series show that the acceleration in the surface layer initially increases in the same direction as the wind when the wind starts blowing, but it reaches a maximum, starts decreasing, and eventually changes to the opposite direction (decelerates) while the wind continues to blow in one direction. Results of a continuously stratified normal mode model and estimations from the observations suggest that friction at solid boundaries is a major cause of these phenomena. The model shows that modal currents of normal modes 2 and 3 are as important as mode 1, although the resultant vertical structure of total current shows a two-layer type pattern with only one zero crossing. The effect of the baroclinic pressure gradient is only apparent at low frequencies and among lower modes.     

Chaotic Advection of the Shallow Kuroshio Coastal Waters

The shallow coastal water of the Enshu-Nada Sea (ENSW) recirculates regardless of whether the Kuroshio path is straight or has meanders. The recirculation is formed as a result of flow separation at the sharp coastline. The outputs of a recent numerical simulation of the Kuroshio current, including case of a short-term meander caused by an anticyclonic eddy, were analysed to track the motion of the ENSW. In contrast to the steady-flow cases, the unsteady cases showed that the ENSW discharges into the Kuroshio Extension region and intrudes further north into the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region due to chaotic advection. Two hyperbolic stagnation points of the velocity field characterise the transport paths; one south of the Izu peninsula and the other at the Kuroshio Extension. This mechanism exists even without the Ekman drift and may play an important role in the transportation of the fish eggs and larvae from the southern Japan spawning ground to the food abundant Kuroshio-Oyashio transition zone. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Hydrothermal plumes in the eastern Manus Basin, Bismarck Sea: CH4, Mn, Al and pH anomalies

We present evidence for strong hydrothermal activity in the eastern Manus Basin (depth: 1700–2100 m), the existence of large scale triple-layered buoyant plumes at depths of 1100 m (“shallow plume”), 1700 m (“deep plume”), and 1400 m (“middle plume” with less extent than the other two plumes) that were revealed from water column anomalies of CH₄, Mn, Al and pH observed in November to December 1990. Judging from the horizontal distribution of these parameters, the deep plume seems to originate from two distinct hydrothermal sites (eastern and western sites) in the research area, the eastern site being visually ascertained with deep-tow observations at the same time. The CH₄/Mn ratio (mol mol⁻¹) of the deep plume (0.02–0.05) is the lowest yet observed in hydrothermal plumes. The order of magnitude difference of CH₄/Mn ratios between the shallow plume and the deep plume suggests that different kinds of fluid-rock interaction occurred to make the hydrothermal end members for the deep and shallow plumes. The shallow plume, which had an areal extent of more than 50 km, may be an episodic “megaplume”, because it was not recognized in the previous CH₄ profiles in 1986, and because it has a similar CH₄/Mn ratio as the megaplume observed in the North Fiji Basin. We found that the eastern deep plume is characterized by enormously high aluminium concentrations (0.6– 1.5 μmol kg⁻¹), pH anomalies (0.1) and high Al/Mn ratios (10–17). The endmember fluid for the eastern deep plume may have an unusually low pH value to dissolve this much aluminum during fluid-rock interaction, or this plume may originate from an eruption-influenced fluid.     

High belowground biomass allocation in an upland black spruce (Picea mariana) stand in interior Alaska

The root system of forest trees account for a significant proportion of the total forest biomass. However, data is particularly limited for forests in permafrost regions. In this study, therefore, we estimated the above- and belowground biomass of a black spruce (Picea mariana) stand underlain with permafrost in interior Alaska. Allometric equations were established using 4–6 sample trees to estimate the biomass of the aboveground parts and the coarse roots (roots >5 mm in diameter) of P. mariana trees. The aboveground biomass of understory plants and the fine-root biomass were estimated by destructive sampling. The aboveground and coarse-root biomasses of the P. mariana trees were estimated to be 3.97 and 2.31 kg m^?2, respectively. The aboveground biomass of understory vascular plants such as Ledum groenlandicum and the biomass of forest floor mosses and lichens were 0.10 and 0.62 kg m^?2, respectively. The biomass of fine roots <5 mm in diameter was 1.27 kg m^?2. Thus, the above- and belowground biomasses of vascular plants in the P. mariana stand were estimated to be 4.07 and 3.58 kg m^?2, respectively, indicating that belowground biomass accounted for 47% of the total biomass of vascular plants. Fine-root biomass was 36% of the total root biomass, of which 90% was accumulated in the surface organic layer. Thus, this P. mariana stand can be characterized as having extremely high belowground biomass allocation, which would make it possible to grow on permafrost with limited soil resource availability.     

Metal-rich carbon stars in the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy

We present spectroscopic observations from the Spitzer Space Telescope of six carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy (Sgr dSph) and two foreground Galactic carbon stars. The band strengths of the observed C₂H₂ and SiC features are very similar to those observed in Galactic AGB stars. The metallicities are estimated from an empirical relation between the acetylene optical depth and the strength of the SiC feature. The metallicities are higher than those of the Large Magellanic Cloud, and close to Galactic values. While the high metallicity could imply an age of around 1 Gyr, for the dusty AGB stars, the pulsation periods suggest ages in excess of 2 or 3 Gyr. We fit the spectra of the observed stars using the dusty radiative transfer model and determine their dust mass-loss rates to be in the range  1.0–3.3 × 10⁻⁸ M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . The two Galactic foreground carbon-rich AGB stars are located at the far side of the solar circle, beyond the Galactic Centre. One of these two stars shows the strongest SiC feature in our present Local Group sample.