Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Gravity Anomaly and Tectonics in the Northern Part of the North Fiji Basin - Preliminary Result of the 1994 NOFI Cruise under the NEW STARMER Programme

A surface ship gravity survey was carried out in the northern part of the North Fiji Basin during the NOFI cruise by the R/V l'Atalante in August-September, 1994. The two ridges inside the study area, the South Pandora Ridge and the Tripartite Ridge, present different structures and states of isostatic equilibrium in terms of gravity anomaly and its tectonic implications. The former is supported by a restoring force of an imaginary elastic plate in the crust and the latter by the Airy type isostasy. These characteristics can be derived from the difference in magmatic activity, as influenced by the difference in lithospheric structure. The latter is characterised by greater active magmatism and hydrothermalism underneath the ridge than the former. Such a difference in the magmatic activity and the horizontal scale of the shallow subsurface structure is derived from the difference in the stiffness or viscosity of the lithosphere beneath the two ridges.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Instability processes of mesoscale features in the Kuroshio Extension reproduced through assimilation of altimeter data into a quasi-geostrophic model using the variational method

The Kuroshio, one of the most energetic western boundary currents in the world, shows variations in its mesoscale features and recirculation gyres, providing an excellent test case of interactions between the mesoscale field and Kuroshio Extension (KE) states. A three-layer quasi-geostrophic model was used to reconstruct flow fields continuous in time and the horizontal plane from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data based on the variational method. Compared with the solutions obtained by the nudging method, the present results proved that the variational solution was closer to the real field. In the assimilation period, 1993–1997, the baroclinic instability index (BII) was defined to be the phase shift from the uppermost layer to the lowest layer with mesoscale features. In the first half of the assimilation period, the KE took the transition from the elongated to contracted states, in which BII decreased gradually, as a consequence of the KE state shift. In the second half period, BII increased in the downstream region just west of the Shatsky Rise, in which baroclinic instability contributed to the final stage of the contracted state, and was followed by rapidly weakened instability as a trigger of the opposite transition from the contracted to elongated states. The wind-driven recirculation gyre played an active role on the KE transition in the first half period, although not in the second half.     

A simple model of drainage flow in a valley

A model of the drainage flow in a valley under calm conditions has been developed on the basis of the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and heat. The inflow of mass and heat from side-slopes is incorporated, and the momentum and sensible heat exchanges between valley drainage flow and valley floor are parameterized.The characteristic velocity of valley drainage flow is expressed in terms of the following parameters: three potential temperature differences representing the temperature field in the valey; topographic parameters of the valley; mean bulk coefficients representing the aerodynamic conditions of the valley floor; and the stability of the ambient atmosphere. The characteristic thickness includes additional parameters of side-slope flow.That the model satisfactorily predicts the characteristic thickness and velocity is shown from comparison with observations from valleys several hundred meters to a few hundred kilometers long.     

The extinction coefficients in mid- and farinfrared of silicate and iron-oxide minerals of interest for astronomical observations

Extinction measurements were made for some silicate and iron-oxide mineral grains in mid- and far-infrared region. For far-infrared region, high temperature magnesium silicates such as olivine and pyroxenes show the absorption spectra of steep dependence as ^–3 ( being the wavelength) with some peak structure, but the spectrum of magnetite shows ^–1 dependence.     

Baroclinic eddies south of Cheju Island in the East China Sea

The detailed structures of baroclinic eddies, that is, an anticlockwise circulation in the upper layer and a clockwise one in the lower layer south of Cheju Island in the East China Sea have been revealed by intensive field observation. Such baroclinic eddies are accompanied by the southward spreading of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water.     

Mean circulation induced over bottom topography by mesoscale variabilities in the Kuroshio Extension

Circulation could be generated over bottom topography by vertical shrinking or stretching of a water parcel, in which potential vorticity is conserved. The water parcel moves up or down over the bottom topography yielding shrinking or stretching. In addition to a prevailing current which advects the water parcel in one direction, an oscillatory motion can also induce shrinking and stretching, and circulation is consequently generated over the bottom topography, once it is averaged in time. A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model has been used to reproduce mesoscale variabilities both in and under the Kuroshio Extension around the Shatsky Rise. A combination of TOPEX and ERS altimeters provided information on an eddy field near the sea surface, while a data assimilation method was used to reconstruct the flow field below the main thermocline. Among various mesoscale processes associated with the Kuroshio, it is remarkable that topographic Rossby waves trapped over the Shatsky Rise are generated by the upper-layer mesoscale variability. A persistent anticyclonic circulation is produced on the Shatsky Rise through a water parcel moving up and down over the bottom slope, and is consistent with the observed density anomaly in the WOA94.     

Pyroxenes in the system Mg2Si2O6-CaMgSi2O6 at high pressure

The enstatite-diopside solvus in the system Mg₂Si₂O₆-CaMgSi₂O₆ has been experimentally determined within the pressure range 5–40 kbars and the temperature range 900–1500°C. Experiments involving reversal of the phase boundaries by unmixing from glass starting material and by reaction of pure clinoenstatite and diopside showed difficulty in achieving equilibration due to persistence of metastable, subcalcic clinopyroxene and to the sluggishness of reaction rate. The experimental data showed that the temperature dependence of the diopside limb is less than previously accepted. At 1500°C and 30 kbars subcalcic diopside found by Davis and Boyd (1966) is shown to be metastable with respect to enstatite and more calcic diopside of composition En_42.3Di_57.7. The solvus widens with increasing pressure between 5 and 40 kbars at 1200°C, but at 900°C the pressure effect on the solvus is very small. The stability relationships of the four pyroxenes, protoenstatite, enstatite, iron-free pigeonite and diopside are summarized, based on data from the literature and the present study.