Quasi-3-yr Cycle of Rainy Season Precipitation in Tibet Related to Different Types of ENSO during 1981–2015

The rainy season precipitation in Tibet (RSPT) is a direct cause for local floods/droughts. It also indirectly affects the thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau, which can result in anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The interannual variability of the RSPT is often linked with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly for different types of ENSO events. We investigated the interannual variation of the RSPT in association with different types of ENSO. A quasi-3-yr period of the RSPT (less–more–more precipitation) was significant at the 95% confidence level. A joint multi-taper method with singular value decomposition analysis of the coupled field between the RSPT and the sea surface temperature (SST) revealed that the developing eastern Pacific type El Niño was accompanied by a decrease in the RSPT. The shift from the central Pacific type El Niño to the eastern Pacific La Niña was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Weakening of the central Pacific La Niña was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Analysis of the mechanism of this coupling, using the same analysis method but other climatic factors, indicated that the gradually strengthening eastern Pacific El Niño can inhibit the Walker circulation, weakening the South Asian summer monsoon, and resulting in transport of less water vapor from the Bay of Bengal to Tibet. The change from the central Pacific El Niño to the eastern Pacific La Niña led to continued strengthening of the Walker circulation with westward movement of the ascending area. This enhanced the South Asian summer monsoon over the Arabian Sea and transported more water vapor to Tibet. The decreasing central Pacific La Niña accompanied by persistent cooling of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific led to a strong eastern North Pacific summer monsoon, causing an anomaly in the easterly transport of water vapor from the Sea of Japan to Tibet and increased RSPT.     

Early Cretaceous adakitic granites in the Northern Dabie Complex, central China: Implications for partial melting and delamination of thickened lower crust

To date, few adakitic rocks have been reported in direct association with contemporary intra-continental extensional structures, which has cast doubt on genetic models involving partial melting of the lower crust. This study presents Early Cretaceous (143-129 Ma, new Sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) zircon U-Pb ages) adakitic granites, which are directly associated with a contemporary metamorphic core complex (i.e., the Northern Dabie Complex in the Dabie area). These granites exhibit relatively high Sr contents, negligible to positive Eu and Sr anomalies, high La/Yb and Sr/Y ratios, but very low Yb and Y contents, similar to subducted oceanic crust-derived adakites. They are also characterized, however, by very low MgO or Mg^# and Ni values, and Nd-Sr isotope compositions (ε_Nd(t) = −14.6 to −19.4 and (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i = 0.7067-0.7087) similar to Triassic continent-derived eclogites subducted in the Dabie-Sulu Orogen. Additionally, late granitic dikes in the adakitic intrusions exhibit low Sr contents, clearly negative Eu and Sr anomalies, low La/Yb and Sr/Y ratios, but relatively high Yb and Y contents, similar to 118-105 Ma granites in the Northern Dabie Complex. Based on composition and geochronology data of Neoproterozoic amphibolites and orthogneisses, Triassic high- to ultra-high pressure metamorphic rocks, and Early Cretaceous mafic-ultramafic intrusive rocks, and the constraints provided by experimental melt data for tonalites, metabasaltic rocks and eclogites, we suggest that the adakitic granites were most probably generated by partial melting of thickened amphibole or rutile-bearing eclogitic lower crust as a consequence of Triassic-Middle Jurassic subduction and thrusting. The late dikes probably originated from plagioclase-bearing intermediate granulites. Moreover, we suggest that late Mesozoic delamination or foundering of thickened eclogitic lower crust is also a more plausible mechanism for the petrogenesis of Early Cretaceous mafic-ultramafic intrusive rocks in the Dabie area, and probably involved partial melting of a mixed source comprising eclogitic lower crust that had delaminated or foundered into upper lithospheric or asthenospheric mantle peridotite. Asthenospheric upwelling in response to post-collisional delamination of lithospheric mantle was likely to have provided the heat source for the Cretaceous magmatism.     

甘肃窑街寺湾沟－炭洞沟红层孢粉组合、地质时代与生态环境

对窑街寺湾沟－炭洞沟红层孢粉和地层层序及时代进行了系统分析与对比研究。在该剖面中划分出２个孢粉组合：①双束松粉属－无口器粉属－杉粉属－栎粉属－瘤面海金砂孢属组合，时代为早渐新世；②双束松粉属－拟桦粉属－栎粉属－藜粉属－瘤面海金沙孢属组合，属中渐新世。研究表明：窑街寺湾沟－炭洞沟红层剖面的层位位于朱儿庄剖面之上，整个窑街地区的红层剖面属始新统－中渐新统；窑街地区始新世孢粉组合与中国东、西部地区孢粉组合相似，均发育以亚热带和暖温带植物为主的亚热带型落叶阔叶林，气候炎热；始新世晚期至早渐新世则演变为以暖温带落叶阔叶树种为主的针阔叶混交林植被，气候温暖湿润；中渐新世为暖温带落叶阔叶林，气候较温暖湿润。区域对比分析表明，从渐新世早期中国东、西部植被开始出现差异并逐渐加大，该时期也许是中国新构造运动的一个重要时期。     

亚洲沙尘暴的遥感监测方法研究 --以中国-日本合作研究区为例

介绍了亚洲沙尘暴遥感监测的一些新方法,并对监测结果与数据进行了综合分析,这些结果能够为GCM全球尺度沙尘模型提供参数和验证数据。本次研究结果为亚洲沙尘暴的中长期预测/预警系统提供了新的遥感技术方法。     

测站降雹和区域降雹气候特征对比分析

应用1960～2001年测站降雹和区域降雹(包括非测站资料)两种资料,对山东省降雹气候特征进行了对比分析,计算分析了山东省两种降雹资料气候图的相似离度。分析结果表明,区域降雹比测站降雹明显偏多,但时间和空间分布趋势基本一致,相似度在86％%以上,应用测站降雹资料制作的气候图具有86％的代表性。     

区域大气环境应急响应数值预报系统

介绍了针对国内有毒气体泄漏等突发性大气中污染物扩散问题建立的区域精细大气环境应急响应数值预报业务系统。该系统基于污染扩散模式HYSPLIT_4,利用中尺度模式WRF为其提供气象场,对污染扩散的路径和浓度以及地面沉降进行计算,系统后端开发了基于GIS的产品制作平台对模式产品进行叠加地理信息的处理。为实现快速应急响应的功能,模式业务系统始终处于热准备状态,并可在接到指令后迅速完成产品制作。文中给出一个大气环境应急响应演习应用实例,显示该模式系统对影响范围较大的有毒气体泄漏事件应急响应工作具备一定的指导意义和应用前景。     

基于干涉仪原理的甚高频雷电单站预警

针对目前闪电单站探测与预警装置的局限性,设计了一套基于闪电宽带干涉仪原理的甚高频单站雷电预警装置.该装置通过测量雷电(包括云闪与地闪)起始时刻的辐射信号到达竖直天线阵列的相位差,计算得到该信号的仰角,根据仰角估算雷电的距离,进而根据雷电的距离和活动特征进行雷电报警.单站测距误差分析结果表明,单站系统对半径50 km范围内闪电测距误差在25％以内,半径100 km范围内的闪电测距误差在30％以内.雷电单站预警装置对一次雷暴过程进行了观测,观测结果表明,该装置能有效探测半径100 km范围内的闪电活动状况,探测到的闪电频次分布、闪电距离与多站闪电定位结果保持较好一致性,证明其能有效探测周围闪电活动状况,起到提前预警雷暴的作用.     

风廓线雷达估算大气返回信号功率方法研究

基于风廓线雷达大气返回信号功率谱中噪声电平的估算方法,统计分析了北京延庆对流层风廓线雷达（CFL-08）2006年10～12月的探测数据。对该频段风廓线雷达环境噪声的空间和时间变化进行了分析,观测期间环境噪声在5km以下随高度递减,10月的平均环境噪声大于11月、12月的平均分布。给出目前风廓线雷达用信噪比估算大气返回信号功率的两种方法,并对两种方法进行了环境噪声的剔除,经过修正后的大气返回信号功率输出结果趋于一致。     

三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正

选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1．8 ℃和1．4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。     

山东两次强对流天气雷达特征及环境场对比

利用常规地面和高空观测资料、加密自动站资料和多普勒雷达资料,对2016年6月山东两次强对流天气的雷达特征、环境条件等进行了对比分析,结果表明:6月14日强对流天气主要是横槽转竖引导冷空气南下引起,6月30日强对流天气发生在高空槽前、山东高低层受一致西南气流影响的环流形势下,地面辐合线是两次过程的触发机制。6月14日垂直风切变和风暴承载层平均风均比30日大很多,致使14日的超级单体风暴持续时间更长、强度更强。风暴相对螺旋度的大小对强对流天气强弱程度有指示意义。两次过程都在地面辐合线附近生成,都具有中气旋、高悬的强回波、有界弱回波区、回波悬垂、风暴顶辐散等雷达特征,不同的是14日具有倒V形缺口、中层径向辐合、冰雹散射和钩状回波等特征,30日具有窄带回波、径向速度大值区等特征。两次过程都出现了弱旋转对应地面都带来小冰雹天气,这在预报业务中值得注意。两次降雹与风暴单体高度及强度、垂直累积液态水含量及密度、中气旋厚度、最大切变和持续时间密切相关。