Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.     

Cosmic-ray modulation and long-duration solar flare events

The correlation between the long-term intensity variations of cosmic rays at neutron monitor energies and the LDE index measure of solar flares with long-lasting soft X-ray emissions is reported. Three subsequent solar cycles, 20–22, are taken into account and half-monthly data are analyzed. Possible explanation of this correlation is discussed in terms of the recent concepts of cosmic-ray modulation, in particular with merged interaction regions affecting the cosmic-ray intensity.     

Marine microbiological studies of mangrove swamps of Killai backwaters

The bacterial populations of mangrove swamps of Killai backwaters (11°21–11°29N, 79°46–79°50E, South India) were studied during August 1968 (Pre monsoon period) and December (post monsoon period). The presence of these groups such as agar digesters, algin digesters, cellulose digesters, sulphate reducers etc., bring about transformation of organic matter in the mangrove swamps. The presence of denitrifiers in mangrove swamps and in association with the molluscs may bring about the precipitation of calcium carbonate by removing the acid radicals such as sulphate and nitrite, increasing alkalinity. The luminiscent bacteria such asVibrio andAeromonas were also isolated in mangrove swamps of Killai backwaters. The iron bacteria likeLeptothrix sp. andGallionella sp. were also isolated from mangrove swamps of Killai backwaters.     

Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: A GCM study

Ensemble seasonal integrations are carried out with the COLA GCM, with a view to understand the dynamical connection between warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the upper level stationary wave anomalies seen during drought years over the Indian summer monsoon region. In addition, experiments with and without orography are performed in order to examine the role of the Himalayas in modulating the El Niño induced stationary wave anomalies over the summer monsoon region. The GCM simulations show a statistically significant weakening of the summer monsoon activity over India in response to the SST forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weakening of the summer monsoon appears to be largely related to modifications of the local Hadley and Walker cells over the summer monsoon region. In addition, it is seen that the anomalous ENSO divergent forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean can act as a potential source for Rossby wave dispersion. Here one finds the possibility of meridionally propagating Rossby waves, which emanate from the ENSO forcing region, to interact with the subtropical westerlies and generate anomalous highs and lows in the subtropics and extratropics. The quasi-stationary perturbations seen over west Asia, Pakistan and northwest India during drought years, seem to be generated by the above mechanism. An alternate mechanism that could be important for the persistence of the quasi-stationary perturbations seems to be based on the dynamic excitation of middle latitude normal modes which can extract energy from the zonally varying unstable basic flow. It is seen from the GCM simulations, that the Himalayan orography plays a crucial role in anchoring the El Niño induced extratropical westerly troughs far to the west in the high latitude belt. In the absence of orography it is seen that the ENSO induced extra-tropical cyclonic anomalies tend to intrude southward into the monsoon region thereby destroying the regional scale circulations completely. Another effect due to the Himalayas is to generate lee waves on the eastern side of the topographic barrier which encircle the globe in the subtropics and midlatitudes.     

An urban impact model for changes in the length of the frost free season at selected Canadian stations

A study of long term temperature data for fourteen Canadian cities showed that the length of the annual frost free season has increased by average of 7 days since 1940. Change in individual stations ranged from 26 to -17 days resulting in significant shifts in the mean probable dates for the first and the last frost of the season at most stations. No similar trend was shown in three non-urban control stations. Three urban factors: heat island effect, enhanced cloud cover and the rate of population growth - together accounted for 80% of the explained variance in the phenomenon. A multiple regression model was developed to describe the relationship between the change in the season and the urban factors. It is shown that for any appreciable gains to be made in the length of the season at reasonably predictable changes in temperature, such changes in temperature should be accompanied by a modest increase in cloud cover.     

Cape cormorants decrease,move east and adapt foraging strategies following eastward displacement of their main prey

Numbers of Cape cormorants Phalacrocorax capensis breeding in South Africa decreased by nearly 50% from approximately 107 000 pairs in 1977–1981 to 57 000 pairs in 2010–2014. Although four colonies had >10 000 pairs in 1977–1981, there was just one such colony in 2010–2014. Almost all the decrease occurred after the early 1990s off north-west South Africa, between the Orange River estuary and Dassen Island. South of this, the number breeding in the two periods was stable, with some colonies being formed or growing rapidly in the 2000s. The proportion of South Africa’s Cape cormorants that bred south of Dassen Island increased from 35% in 1977–1981 to 66% in 2010–2014, with the opposite situation observed in the north-west. This matched a shift to the south and east in the distributions of two of the Cape cormorant’s main prey species, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax. In 2014, an apparent scarcity of prey in the north-west resulted in Cape cormorants attempting to take bait from hooks of fishing lines over an extended period, a behaviour not previously recorded. The number of Cape cormorants breeding in the south may be constrained by the absence of large islands between Dyer Island in the west and Algoa Bay in the east. If so, it may be possible to bolster the southern population through the provision of appropriate breeding habitat, such as platforms, or restricting human disturbance at suitable mainland cliff breeding sites.     

Vertical distribution of living mangrove foraminifera from KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Modern foraminiferal assemblage zones can be used to reconstruct palaeo sea levels when applied to fossil foraminifera down a sediment core. Previous intertidal foraminiferal studies have predominantly focused on assemblages in surface sediments (0–1 cm), with the rationale that surface assemblages reflect the modern-day environment. Foraminifera live infaunally and therefore there is a need to document the infaunal vertical distribution of living foraminifera to fully capture the modern environment. Infaunal foraminiferal populations may compositionally differ from or be similar to those in the uppermost 1 cm of a core sample, but abundance is variable vertically, making it very complex to reconstruct and interpret past sea levels. This can have implications for the choice of assemblages to use as modern analogues for past sea-level reconstructions. This study documents the vertical infaunal distribution of living foraminifera, to allow for more informed interpretations of palaeo-reconstructions in mangrove environments. The down-core vertical distribution and abundance of living foraminifera, along with grain size and organic content, were documented using sediment cores along an elevational transect. Nine taxa were recorded as living at the time of collection, six of which were restricted to the top 4 cm. The majority of these were calcareous and found in the cores situated closer to the intertidal channel. Therefore, we argue that the diversity of living calcareous and agglutinated foraminifera could be restricted by grain size, with coarser grain sizes associated with lower species diversity. The findings suggest that foraminiferal species inhabiting the top 4 cm represent deeper living foraminiferal populations. Therefore, the top 4-cm interval can be used to establish a modern training set upon which reconstructions can be based. The findings from this study will provide guidance on the use of South African mangrove environments for future sea-level reconstructions.