Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y)–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.     

Exploration and decision-making in geotechnical engineering – a case study

ABSTRACT

The paper presents methodologies for exploration planning under uncertain conditions based on virtual exploration and Bayesian updating. The process starts with site characterization using existing information to produce geologic profiles. Initial distributions of cost and time are obtained with a Bayesian network model that optimizes the construction strategy for particular geologic conditions. This is followed by the unique step to determine with a “virtual exploration” if additional exploration (e.g. borings) is warranted, and if so, where it should be best done. All this is then applied to the planned Abu Dhabi subway tunnels providing the transportation planners with necessary information for planning and design.     

Copepod assemblages in a highly dynamic equatorial estuary on the Brazilian Amazon Coast

This study describes the spatial and temporal dynamics of the copepod fauna in the estuary of the Caeté River, a highly dynamic environment characterized by a unique set of hydrological and hydrodynamic attributes. This ecosystem is part of the Amazon Coastal Zone (ACZ), which sustains one of the world's largest continuous tracts of mangrove forest. In the present study, a predominance of high‐energy conditions characterized by macrotides and strong tidal currents was observed throughout the year. Salinity (0.03 ± 0.05–40.00 ± 0.84) and temperatures (26.43 ± 0.10–30.08 ± 0.43 °C) were higher than during the rainy season at all sampling stations. The highest chl‐a concentration (3.92 ± 1.47–17.63 ± 2.60 mg·m^?3) was recorded at the most oligohaline (innermost) station during the rainy season, while no spatial or seasonal pattern was found in dissolved nutrient concentrations, except for phosphates, which exhibited the highest concentrations during the dry season. A total of 22 copepod taxa was identified, of which the most abundant were Oithona hebes, Oithona oswaldocruzi, Acartia tonsa, Paracalanus quasimodo, Euterpina acutifrons and Pseudodiaptomus marshi. Copepodites and nauplii were also recorded. Mean total copepod abundance varied from 710.73 ± 897 individuals (ind.)·m^?3 at the inner station to 236,486 ± 398,360 ind.·m^?3 near the mouth of the estuary (outermost station). The results reflected rainfall‐influenced oscillations in hydrological variables, mainly salinity, which determined shifts in the distribution of copepods and their community structure within the study area. This pattern may be typical of estuaries in the ACZ with similar hydrodynamic and hydrological attributes that are not influenced by the Amazon River plume.     

Cloud condensation nuclei from biomass burning during the Amazonian dry-to-wet transition season

Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were conducted over the Southwestern Amazon region in September–October 2002, to emphasize the dry-to-wet transition season. The CCN concentrations were measured for values within the range 0.1–1.0% of supersaturation. The CCN concentration inside the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend during the transition from the end of the dry season to the onset of the wet season. Clean and polluted areas showed large differences. The differences were not so strong at high levels in the troposphere and there was evidence supporting the semi-direct aerosol effect in suppressing convection through the evaporation of clouds by aerosol absorption. The measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following biomass burning activity. Although biomass burning was the most important source of CCN, it was seen as a source of relatively efficient CCN, since the increase was significant only at high supersaturations.     

Surface water quality and sediment geochemistry in the Gualaxo do Norte basin,eastern Quadrilátero Ferrífero,Minas Gerais,Brazil

This paper describes the geochemistry of water and sediment samples downstream from two iron mines in the Gualaxo do Norte River basin, north of Mariana city, Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Electric conductivity, total dissolved solids, pH, E_h, Na, K, Ca, Mg and trace elements (Fe, Mn, Al, Cd, Ni, Cr, Zn, As, Pb, Co, Sb, Cu, Mo, Rb, Sr, Ti, V, Y, Zr and Ba) have been analysed in water and sediments. The observed Na anomalies are mainly associated with the iron mine processing plants. Enriched concentrations of iron and manganese were only observed in rudimentary gold exploitation areas (prospectors) and where supergenic alteration of the banded iron formation has occurred. Iron and manganese background values are in some places higher than the limits established by Brazilian legislation. Mn, As, Sb and Ba anomalies have been observed in sediments. Their main source is associated with the sulphide-rich mineral deposits in the spring of the Gualaxo do Norte River and not directly related to the present iron exploitation in the region. Background values are proposed for the studied region.     

Flood threat anomaly for the low coastal areas of the English Channel based on analysis of recent characteristic flood occurrences

In the English Channel, extreme surge heights did not occur at the time of extreme high tides during the last decades and maximum recorded heights usually do not exceed the maximum astronomical tide by more than a few decimetres. To understand whether this lack of coincidence may be due to specific phenomena or only to chance, we have studied hourly tide records lasting a few decades from nine English and nine French stations as well as air pressure and wind data from nearby meteorological observatories. Among the case studies of moderate flooding at several coastal stations occurring during spring tide, we have selected those of 24–25/10/1980 and of 30/01/1983 to 02/02/1983 as representative of a normal situation without any special chance. The third case study 26–28/02/1990 was potentially more dangerous because of the storm intensity and duration; however, by chance, surge peaks occurred near the low tide. Finally, the propagation of the surge peak of 15–16/10/1987, which reached the maximum height recorded during all the instrumental period at several stations, has been followed all along the English Channel, using the hourly records of 12 tide-gauge stations and of 16 meteorological stations. The surge peak of this great storm, probably the strongest in the last two centuries, occurred everywhere at high tide and spread with the same velocity of the tidal wave. Fortunately, no major flooding occurred because it was the day after a neap tide. In conclusion, some good fortune has saved the low coastal areas of the English Channel from major floods during the last decades. However, the occurrence of the peak of a strong storm surge arriving near the western entrance of the Channel at the time of a great astronomical high tide is a possible event that could be devastating along both sides of the Channel coasts. Main parts of this paper have been presented orally in June 2005 at the joint INQUA–IGCP 495 Meeting “Dunkerque 2005” and in February 2006 at the ASLO-TOS-AGU “Ocean Sciences Meeting” (Honolulu, HI).     

The importance of crustal structure in explaining the observed uncertainties in ground motion estimation

In this short article, the possible reduction in the standard deviation of empirical ground motion estimation equations through the modelling of the effect of crustal structure is assessed through the use of ground-motion simulations. Simulations are computed for different source-to-site distances, focal depths, focal mechanisms and for crustal models of the Pyrenees, the western Alps and the upper Rhine Graben. Through the method of equivalent hypocentral distance introduced by Douglas et al. [(2004) Bull Earthquake Eng 2(1): 75–99] to model the effect of crustal structure in empirical equations, the scatter associated with such equations derived using these simulated data could be reduced to zero if real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions were derived for every combination of mechanism, depth and crustal structure present in the simulated dataset. This is, obviously, impractical. The relative importance of each parameter in affecting the decay of ground motions is assessed here. It is found that variation in focal depth is generally more important than the effect of crustal structure when deriving the real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions. In addition, mechanism and magnitude do not have an important impact on the decay rate.     

Vertebrate dinoturbation from the Caturrita Formation (Late Triassic, Paraná Basin), Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

The Caturrita Formation is a lithostratigraphic unit that comprises the Ladinian–Eonorian sequence of the Paraná Basin. It has been interpreted as deposits of alluvial plains and meandering rivers. Purported fossil tracks found in this formation at Faxinal do Soturno County, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, are concave circular-shaped structures, with a laminar deformation. Some show digitiform projections, and at least three are aligned. They are interpreted as a disruption of the substrate homogeneity caused by bioturbation of tetrapods. In some of these there is a distinct color pattern — more reddish than the surrounding substrate. This is interpreted as a result of differential diagenesis. The features remain enigmatic tracks but were probably made by prosauropod dinosaurs, the dominant terrestrial herbivore group from the end of the Triassic in Gondwana strata.     

B,V, and DDO photometric observations of red variable stars

Light curves of the red variables L₂ Puppis, R Carinae, and S Carinae in the region of the spectrum covered by theB, V, and DDO photometry are presented. The behavior of the DDO color indices and their meaning for this type of star are discussed. S Carinae shows a different behavior from the other two stars that seems to be due to a population effect.