Sensitivity analysis of the climate of a chaotic system

This paper addresses some fundamental methodological issues concerning the sensitivity analysis of chaotic geophysical systems. We show, using the Lorenz system as an example, that a naïve approach to variational ("adjoint") sensitivity analysis is of limited utility. Applied to trajectories which are long relative to the predictability time scales of the system, cumulative error growth means that adjoint results diverge exponentially from the "macroscopic climate sensitivity"(that is, the sensitivity of time‐averaged properties of the system to finite‐amplitude perturbations). This problem occurs even for time‐averaged quantities and given infinite computing resources. Alternatively, applied to very short trajectories, the adjoint provides an incorrect estimate of the sensitivity, even if averaged over large numbers of initial conditions, because a finite time scale is required for the model climate to respond fully to certain perturbations. In the Lorenz (1963) system, an intermediate time scale is found on which an ensemble of adjoint gradients can give a reasonably accurate (O(10%)) estimate of the macroscopic climate sensitivity. While this ensemble‐adjoint approach is unlikely to be reliable for more complex systems, it may provide useful guidance in identifying important parameter‐combinations to be explored further through direct finite‐amplitude perturbations.     

Rate of oxygen removal in some South African groundwaters / Taux d'enlèvement d'oxygène dans de certaines eaux souterraines en Afrique du Sud

Abstract

Data are presented for the dissolved oxygen concentrations and radiometric ages of ‘normal’ (i.e. non-thermal and chemically not unusual) groundwaters in four aquifers in the Cape Province of South Africa. It is demonstrated that a significant amount of the atmospheric oxygen dissolved in the groundwater is consumed within a relatively short period of the order of 20 years. In some environments oxygen concentration measurements may provide a convenient method for locating areas of recharge in groundwater studies.     

Use of algal assays to determine the potential for phytoplankton growth / Utilisation des essais d'algues pour la détermination du potentiel pour ce qui regarde la croissance du phytoplancton

Abstract

Algal growth potential is defined as the maximum algal mass (dry weight) that can be produced in a natural water sample under standardized laboratory conditions. Algal growth potential measurements are designed to establish baseline data, growth limiting factors (nutrients), and the influence and source of various growth promoting nutrients and toxicants so as to provide improved means for predicting and controlling excessive algal growth in aquatic habitats. Data can be compared only when the variables which control algal growth are standardized. Algal growth potentials derived in the laboratory may not reflect natural conditions because of insufficient light or temperature, grazing by invertebrates or fish, or the presence of any toxic materials. An understanding of the principle of the test and the factors that affect the expression of algal growth potentials is critical to proper data interpretation.     

Dust mobilization and transport in the northern Sahara during SAMUM 2006 – a meteorological overview

The SAMUM field campaign in southern Morocco in May/June 2006 provides valuable data to study the emission, and the horizontal and vertical transports of mineral dust in the Northern Sahara. Radiosonde and lidar observations show differential advection of air masses with different characteristics during stable nighttime conditions and up to 5-km deep vertical mixing in the strongly convective boundary layer during the day. Lagrangian and synoptic analyses of selected dust periods point to a topographic channel from western Tunisia to central Algeria as a dust source region. Significant emission events are related to cold surges from the Mediterranean in association with eastward passing upper-level waves and lee cyclogeneses south of the Atlas Mountains. Other relevant events are local emissions under a distinct cut-off low over northwestern Africa and gust fronts associated with dry thunderstorms over the Malian and Algerian Sahara. The latter are badly represented in analyses from the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts and in a regional dust model, most likely due to problems with moist convective dynamics and a lack of observations in this region. This aspect needs further study. The meteorological source identification is consistent with estimates of optical and mineralogical properties of dust samples.