Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

硅藻群落结构的差异:比较样本采集过程与空间梯度

硅藻种群的分布与其所处的生境条件密切相关,但在实际过程中的一些人为因素,例如取样方法、样本的制备以及藻种鉴定都可能会干扰到种群结构的分析结果.因此很有必要探究这些人为因素是否会对真实的硅藻群落生态学研究产生误导性的判断,以免干扰硅藻生物水质评价的客观性.选取采样方法及样本制备为代表的人为因素对硅藻群落生态分析结果引入的误差大小进行评估.结果显示,子样本之间(同一样品重复制作的玻片样本)和样品之间(同一样点重复取样)群落结构差异大小分别是1.26%和1.97%,同一条河流的样点之间则为3.38%,而所选定的跨河流研究区域的样点间群落结构差异最大(42.03%).生态学的排序结果和数理统计分析表明,在硅藻群落结构分析中,现场取样方法和样本制备过程相对于不同生境条件所引起的变化,并不会带来较大的差异.因此在河流附生硅藻的群落生态学研究中,可基本不考虑取样方法等因子的干扰,而是侧重于环境因子对硅藻生态分布的影响.     

Development of a 50-year daily surface solar radiation dataset over China

Although solar radiation is a crucial parameter in designing solar power devices and studying land surface processes,long-term and densely distributed observations of surface solar radiation are usually not available.This paper describes the development of a 50-year dataset of daily surface solar radiation at 716 China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations.First,a physical model,without any local calibration,is applied to estimate the daily radiation at all 716 CMA routine stations.Then,an ANN-based(Artificial Neural Network) model is applied to extend radiation estimates to earlier periods at each of all 96 CMA radiation stations.The ANN-based model is trained with recent reliable radiation data and thus its estimate is more reliable than the physical model.Therefore,the ANN-based model is used to correct the physical model dynamically at a monthly scale.The correction generally improves the accuracy of the radiation dataset estimated by the physical model:the mean bias error(MBE) averaged over all the 96 radiation stations during 1994-2002 is reduced from 0.68 to 0.11 MJ m-2 and the root mean square error(RMSE) from 2.01 to 1.80 MJ m-2.The new radiation dataset shows superior performance over previous estimates by locally calibrated ngstr m-Prescott models.Based on the new radiation dataset,the annual mean daily solar radiation over China is 14.3 MJ m-2.The maximal seasonal mean daily solar radiation occurs in the Tibetan Plateau during summer with a value of 27.1 MJ m-2,whereas the minimal seasonal mean daily solar radiation occurs in the Sichuan Basin during winter with a value of 4.7 MJ m-2.     

CBCT在牙中牙诊断和治疗中的临床应用

目的:探讨CBCT在牙中牙诊断及治疗中的临床应用价值。方法:对3例经X线根尖片或曲面体层摄片发现的牙中牙病例进行CBCT扫描。利用CBCT三维重建影像,观察牙中牙的根管腔形态、内陷牙的数目和内陷牙髓腔的形状以及治疗后牙中牙内腔隙的封闭情况,并且与X线根尖片、曲面体层摄片比较。结果:CBCT能清晰显示牙中牙的根管腔形态、内陷牙的数目和内陷牙髓腔的形状以及治疗后牙中牙内腔隙的封闭情况等。结论:CBCT扫描能够全面地提供牙中牙治疗前后的影像信息,有利于牙中牙的诊断和治疗。     

利用日本GPS网探测2011年Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动

海平面的海啸波会产生大气重力波进而引发电离层扰动.本文利用日本GPS总电子含量数据来探测2011年3月11日Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动.观测结果表明,在日本上空的电离层中存在两种重力波信号,分别由海平面的海啸波以及地震破裂过程产生.地震产生的电离层重力波分布在震中周围（包括海洋上空以及远离海洋的区域）,而海啸引发的电离层重力波主要分布在海洋上空.地震产生的电离层重力波具有不同的水平速度,包括约210 m·s^-1以及170 m·s^-1,其频率为1.5 mHz;而海啸引发的电离层重力波水平速度快于前者,约为280 m·s^-1,其频率为1.0 mHz.此外,海啸引发电离层重力波与海平面上的海啸波有相似的水平速度、方向、运行时间、波形以及频率等传播特征.本文的研究将电离层中的海啸信号与地震信号区分开来,进一步确认电离层对海啸波的敏感性.

     

The structural characteristics,age of origin,and tectonic attribute of the Erguna Fault,NE China

The Erguna Fault runs along the east bank of the Erguna River in NE China and is a large-scale ductile shear zone comprising granitic mylonites. This paper reports on the geometry, kinematic indicators, and 40Ar/39 Ar biotite ages of the granitic mylonites, to constrain the structural characteristics, forming age, and tectonic attribute of the Erguna ductile shear zone. The zone strikes NE and records a top-to-the-NW sense of shear. A mylonitic foliation and stretching lineation are well developed in the mylonites, which are classified as S-L tectonites. Logarithmic flinn parameters(1.18–2.35) indicate elongate strain which approximates to plane strain. Kinematic vorticity numbers are 0.42–0.92 and 0.48–0.94, based on the polar Mohr diagram and the oblique foliation in quartz ribbons, respectively, suggesting that the ductile shear zone formed under general shear, or a combination of simple and pure shear. According to finite strain and kinematic vorticity analyses, the Erguna Fault is a lengthening-thinning ductile shear zone that formed by extension. The deformation behavior of minerals in the mylonites indicates that the fault was the site of three stages of deformation: an initial stage of middle- to deep-level, high-temperature shear, a post-stress recovery phase of high-temperature static recrystallization, and a final phase of low-temperature uplift and cooling. The 40Ar/39 Ar plateau ages of biotite from the granitic mylonites are 106.16 ± 0.79 and 111.55 ± 0.67 Ma, which constrain the timing of low-temperature uplift and cooling but are younger than the ages of metamorphic core complexes(MCCs) in the Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia region. Using measured geological sections, microtectonics, estimates of finite strain and kinematic vorticity, and regional correlations and geochronology, we conclude that the Erguna Fault is an Early Cretaceous, NNE-trending, large-scale, sub-horizontal, and extensional ductile shear zone. It shares a similar tectonic background with the MCCs, volcanic fault basins, and large and super-large volcanic-hydrothermal deposits in Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia and the western Great Khingan Mountains, all of which are the result of overthickened crust that gravitationally collapsed and extended in the Early Cretaceous after plate collision along the present-day Sino-Russia-Mongolia border tract.     

Soil moisture dynamics across landscape types in an arid inland river basin of Northwest China

A combination of field measurements, continuous monitoring and numerical modelling was used to evaluate soil moisture regimes at four sites across a landscape gradient of the Heihe River Basin. Recorded data of precipitation, irrigation and floods were used to build the model, and an optimization technique was employed to calibrate the parameters. Based on the optimized parameters and estimates of future scenarios, the modelling structure was employed to predict the changes in the growing season soil moisture regimes due to climate change and intensive management. The results suggest that the upper‐reach Yeniugou and Xishui sites will become wetter because of alterations in the precipitation regime, and this trend could be strengthened by the expected amplified interannual variability. Precipitation features at middle‐reach Linze and lower‐reach Ejina, however, are not expected to change in the future. We assumed that a more water‐saving irrigation system will replace the current traditional one, and hence, the soil moisture probability density function at the Linze site would tend to be narrowed to ranges around either the wilting point or the point of incipient water stress, depending on how the intervention point and target level are settled. Ejina is expected to experience the most extreme ecological conversion effects in the future, and soil moisture would be more frequently recharged by water delivery. However, the soil moisture regime would not change much because of the poor water‐holding capacity and intensive evaporation. The revealed patterns and predicted shifts in soil moisture dynamics could provide a useful reference for identifying robust long‐term water resource management strategies for the Heihe River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

特低渗储层测井评价技术综述与展望

特低渗储层的测井响应特征与常规储层不同。测井响应值难以有效表征孔隙中的油气,不同品质储层间的差异性不明显.利用单一的测井解释方法容易引起多解性和模糊性,测井参数解释难度大,油气识别非常困难.为了更好地实现特低渗储层的测井精细评价,提升测井解释的符合率,本文在大量文献调研的基础上,依托前人的研究成果,详细归纳总结了裸眼井和套管井的测井系列之后,对其特低渗储层的常规测井评价方法及其优缺点进行了系统梳理和深入剖析,并探讨了核磁共振测井、高分辨率阵列感应测井、电阻率成像测井等新技术和非线性数学方法在特低渗储层中应用状况.最后基于特低渗储层地球物理测井技术的发展现状,指出了当前测井评价技术面临的困难和问题,并展望了特低渗储层地球物理测井技术的发展趋势.     

MSCT在经皮椎体成形术的临床应用与疗效评价

目的:探讨骨质疏松压缩骨折经皮椎体成形术(PVP)伤椎高度的变化的MSCT与临床疗效的评价。方法:经MSCT检查确认25例病变椎体,术前在CT图像上模拟穿刺路径及选择PVP穿刺方式,术后一周内及术后半年进行伤椎复查,对影像数据与临床资料进行统计学分析,从MSCT及临床角度对疗效进行评价。结果:本组患者单侧椎弓穿刺成功率92%,术后腰背部疼痛明显减轻,术前、术后视觉评分、Cobb’s角以及伤椎压缩率比较统计学有显著性差异,而术后及半年后的视觉评分、Cobb’s角以及伤椎压缩率无显著性统计学差异。结论:MSCT能为PVP提供准确的解剖学数据,改善PVP效果,并能在术后随访提供重要的临床信息。