Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa

Austral summer rainfall over the period 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 was dynamically downscaled by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 9 km resolution for South Africa. Lateral boundary conditions for WRF were provided from the European Centre for medium-range weather (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim data. The model biases for the rainfall were evaluated over the South Africa as a whole and its nine provinces separately by employing three different convective parameterization schemes, namely the (1) Kain–Fritsch (KF), (2) Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) and (3) Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GDE) schemes. All three schemes have generated positive rainfall biases over South Africa, with the KF scheme producing the largest biases and mean absolute errors. Only the BMJ scheme could reproduce the intensity of rainfall anomalies, and also exhibited the highest correlation with observed interannual summer rainfall variability. In the KF scheme, a significantly high amount of moisture was transported from the tropics into South Africa. The vertical thermodynamic profiles show that the KF scheme has caused low level moisture convergence, due to the highly unstable atmosphere, and hence contributed to the widespread positive biases of rainfall. The negative bias in moisture, along with a stable atmosphere and negative biases of vertical velocity simulated by the GDE scheme resulted in negative rainfall biases, especially over the Limpopo Province. In terms of rain rate, the KF scheme generated the lowest number of low rain rates and the maximum number of moderate to high rain rates associated with more convective unstable environment. KF and GDE schemes overestimated the convective rain and underestimated the stratiform rain. However, the simulated convective and stratiform rain with BMJ scheme is in more agreement with the observations. This study also documents the performance of regional model in downscaling the large scale climate mode such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subtropical dipole modes. The correlations between the simulated area averaged rainfalls over South Africa and Nino3.4 index were ?0.66, ?0.69 and ?0.49 with KF, BMJ and GDE scheme respectively as compared to the observed correlation of ?0.57. The model could reproduce the observed ENSO-South Africa rainfall relationship and could successfully simulate three wet (dry) years that are associated with La Niña (El Niño) and the BMJ scheme is closest to the observed variability. Also, the model showed good skill in simulating the excess rainfall over South Africa that is associated with positive subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole for the DJF season 2005/2006.     

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie,evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

A cool period from about 11000 to 10 500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of meltwater presence (a — 3 per mil shift in ¹⁸O and a +1.1 per mil shift in ¹³C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcite content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Algonquin during the first eastward discharge of glacial Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that the cold extra inflow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance.Contribution to Climo Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate ProgramGeological Survey of Canada Contribution 58 890     

Aerodynamic Parameters of a UK City Derived from Morphological Data

Detailed three-dimensional building data and a morphometric model are used to estimate the aerodynamic roughness length z ₀ and displacement height d over a major UK city (Leeds). Firstly, using an adaptive grid, the city is divided into neighbourhood regions that are each of a relatively consistent geometry throughout. Secondly, for each neighbourhood, a number of geometric parameters are calculated. Finally, these are used as input into a morphometric model that considers the influence of height variability to predict aerodynamic roughness length and displacement height. Predictions are compared with estimations made using standard tables of aerodynamic parameters. The comparison suggests that the accuracy of plan-area-density based tables is likely to be limited, and that height-based tables of aerodynamic parameters may be more accurate for UK cities. The displacement heights in the standard tables are shown to be lower than the current predictions. The importance of geometric details in determining z ₀ and d is then explored. Height variability is observed to greatly increase the predicted values. However, building footprint shape only has a significant influence upon the predictions when height variability is not considered. Finally, we develop simple relations to quantify the influence of height variation upon predicted z ₀ and d via the standard deviation of building heights. The difference in these predictions compared to the more complex approach highlights the importance of considering the specific shape of the building-height distributions. Collectively, these results suggest that to accurately predict aerodynamic parameters of real urban areas, height variability must be considered in detail, but it may be acceptable to make simple assumptions about building layout and footprint shape.     

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.     

EARTH CRUST INVESTIGATION USING CONVERTED WAVES*

The conditions for creating and recording converted waves in the area of the Panonien basin are considered. Comparison between the characteristics of converted waves recorded in the field and characteristics of converted waves calculated for the model which approximately corresponds to lithophysical conditions of the area is made. The comparative interpretation of the crustal structure along the profile, using different types of waves, is given.     

A direct comparison of C and Th ages at Searles Lake, California

Thorium-230 dating on saline of the Lower Salt unit in pluvial Searles Lake, California, shows that this unit was formed between 24,500 and 32,000 years ago. The initial apparent ¹⁴C age of the lake is estimated to be about 900 years. After correcting for nonradiogenic ²³⁰Th and for the initial ¹⁴C age, excellent agreement between ²³⁰Th and ¹⁴C ages is obtained. The reliability of ²³⁰Th dating on salt deposit opens a new way for continuation of absolute chronology below the Lower Salt in Searles Lake.     

Berriasian (Lower Cretaceous) brachiopods from the Crimea

Four successive assemblages of Berriasian brachiopods distinguished for the first time in the Crimea are correlated with concurrent subdivisions of the ammonoid scale. Berriasian brachiopods are represented by 44 species of 27 genera and 14 families, which are most complete in terms of taxonomic composition as compared to other concurrent brachiopod faunas known elsewhere. The assemblages are dominated by local species. As is proved, the Berriasian brachiopods studied are appropriate for age determination, subdivision and correlation of their host deposits. Their geographic distribution that has been analyzed elucidates connections of the Berriasian sea basins within the Mediterranean paleozoogeographic region.