An analysis of the time scales of variability in centuries-long enso-sensitive records in the last 1000 years

We document the characteristic time scales of variability for seven climate indices whose time-dependent behavior is sensitive to some aspect of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO sensitivity arises from the location of these long-term records on the periphery of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Three of the indices are derived principally from historical sources, three others consist of tree-ring reconstructions (one of summer temperature, and the other two of winter rainfall), and one is an annual record of oxygen isotopic composition for a high-elevation glacier in Peru. Five of the seven indices sample at least portions of the Medieval Warm Period (~ A.D. 950 to 1250).Time series spectral analysis was used to identify the major time scales of variability among the different indices. We focus on two principal time scales: a high frequency band (~ 2–10 yr), which comprises most of the variability found in the modern record of ENSO activity, and a low frequency band to highlight variations on decadal to century time scales (11 <P < 150 yr). This last spectral band contains variability on time scales that are of general interest with respect to possible changes in large-scale air-sea exchanges. A technique called evolutive spectral analysis (ESA) is used to ascertain how stable each spectral peak is in time. Coherence and phase spectra are also calculated among the different indices over each full common period, and following a 91-yr window through time to examine whether the relationships change.In general, spectral power on time scales of ~ 2–6 yr is statistically significant and persists throughout most of the time intervals sampled by the different indices. Assuming that the ENSO phenomenon is the source of much of the variability at these time scales, this indicates that ENSO has been an important part of interannual climatic variations over broad areas of the circum-Pacific region throughout the last millennium. Significant coherence values were found for El Niño and reconstructed Sierra Nevada winter precipitation at ~ 2–4 yr throughout much of their common record (late 1500s to present) and between 6 and 7 yr from the mid-18th to the early 20th century.At decadal time scales each record generally tends to exhibit significant spectral power over different periods at different times. Both the Quelccaya Ice Cap ¹⁸O series and the Quinn El Niño event record exhibit significant spectral power over frequencies ~ 35 to 45 yr; however, there is low coherence between these two series at those frequencies over their common record. The Sierra Nevada winter rainfall reconstruction exhibits consistently strong variability at periods of ~ 30–60 yr.     

Mapping surface soil moisture with microwave radiometers

Summary Water stored in the soil serves as a reservoir for the evapotranspiration (ET) process on land surfaces, therefore knowledge of the soil moisture content is important for partitioning the incoming solar radiation into latent and sensible heat components. There is no remote sensing technique which directly observes the amount of water in this reservoir, however microwave remote sensing at long wavelengths (>10 cm) can give estimates of the moisture stored in the surface 5-cm layer of the soil. This approach is based on the large dielectric contrast between water and dry soil, resulting in emissivity changes from 0.96 for a dry smooth soil to less than 0.6.In this paper, basic relationships between soil moisture and emissivity are described using both theory and observations from various platforms. The ability of the approach to be extended to large regions has been demonstrated in several aircraft mapping experiments, e.g., FIFE, Monsoon 90, Washita 92 and HAPEX Sahel. Some results from Monsoon 90 are presented here. Applications of these soil moisture maps in runoff prediction, rainfall estimation, determining the direct evaporation from the soil surface and serving as a boundary condition for soil profile models are presented.With 10 Figures     

Reservoir timescales for anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere

Non-steady state timescales are complicated and their application to specific geophysical systems requires a common theoretical foundation. We first extend reservoir theory by quantifying the difference between turnover time and transit time (or residence time) for time-dependent systems under any mixing conditions. We explicitly demonstrate the errors which result from assuming these timescales are equal, which is only true at steady state. We also derive a new response function which allows the calculation of age distributions and timescales for well-mixed reservoirs away from steady state, and differentiate between timescales based on gross and net fluxes. These theoretical results are particularly important to tracer-calibrated "box models" currently used to study the carbon cycle, which usually approximate reservoirs as well-mixed. We then apply the results to the important case of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, since timescales describing its behavior are commonly used but ambiguously defined. All relevant timescales, including lifetime, transit time, and adjustment time, are precisely defined and calculated from data and models. Apparent discrepancies between the current, empirically determined turnover time of 30-60 years and longer model-derived estimates of expected lifetime and adjustment time are explained within this theoretical framework. We also discuss the results in light of policy issues related to global warming, in particular since any comparisons of the "lifetimes" of different greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC's etc.) must use a consistent definition to be meaningful.     

Application of a global polytropic model to the Jupiter's system of satellites: a numerical treatment

We study the so-called inverse planetary problem (i.e., given the distances from the centre, masses, and radii of, say, three planets of a planetary system, find the optimum polytropic index, mass, and radius of their star, and also other quantities of interest, which depend either explicitly or implicitly on the foregoing ones, e.g., central and mean density, central and mean pressure, central and mean temperature, etc.) for the system of satellites of Jupiter. In particular, Jupiter is considered as star and its satellites as planets of a proper planetary system, which is then treated numerically on the basis of the so-called global polytropic model, developed recently by the first author.     

Palomar prime-focus infrared camera (PFIRCAM)

In a joint effort between engineers and scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology, a near-infrared (0.8–2.6 m) direct imaging system has been developed and integrated into the Caltech Palomar Observatory detector series. The camera system has been tested and operated in a science mode at the prime-focus (f/3.3) of the Hale 5-m Telescope. This paper outlines the system components and performance, including discussion of the detector linearity.     

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba,Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (12–9 ka), ¹⁸O of ostracodes ranged from –16 to –5 (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water.Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ¹⁸O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ¹⁸O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such asC. rawsoni orLimnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such asL. staplini orL. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake.¹⁸O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from –4 at 8 ka to –11 at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (–20 SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ¹⁸O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (–6) after 4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After 2 ka, the ¹⁸O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between –13 and –7, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ¹³C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.     

A model of impulsive loop flares revisited

A critical examination of the components of the recent impulsive loop flare model of Takakura is made. It is found that his analysis of the stability of the electron distribution resulting from anomalous heat conduction is in error and electron plasma waves would not be excited. Rather, in the regions where the electron/proton temperature ratioT _e/T _i 10, electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves would be excited and in the regions whereT _e 10, ion-acoustic waves would be excited. Ratios ofT _e/T _i 10 occur only in the late time development behind the conduction fronts. Since the anomalous resistivity due to electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves is fortuitously about 70% of the one used by Takakura, the general development will follow closely the one calculated by him. Because the anomalous resistivity due to ion-acoustic waves is about 95 times the one used by Takakura, the development in the parts of the loop whereT _e/T _i 10 for late times would be altered considerably.Also Guest Worker at NOAA Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

Ca X line ratios in solar flares

Theoretical Ca X electron temperature sensitive emission line ratios, derived using electron excitation rates interpolated from accurateR-matrix calculations, are presented forR ₁ =I(419.74 )/I(574.02 ,),R ₂ =I(411.65 )/I(574.02 ),R ₃ =I(419.74 )/I(557.75 ), andR ₄ =I(411.65 )/I(557.75 ). A comparison of these with observational data for three solar flares, obtained by the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A slitless spectrograph on boardSkylab, reveals good agreement between theory and observation forR ₁ andR ₃ in one event, which provides limited support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the analysis. However, in the other flares the observed values ofR ₁ –R ₄ are much larger than the theoretical high-temperature limits, which is probably due to blending of the 419.74 line with Civ 419.71 , and 411.65 with possibly Ciii 411.70 .     

The near infrared camera on the W.M. Keck telescope

The near infrared camera (NIRC) was used for a science demonstration run on the Keck telescope during 16–24 March 1993. The camera used a 256×256 InSb array manufactured by Santa Barbara Research Corporation. Observations were obtained using narrowband and broad band filters from 1 to 2.4 microns, and grisms with a spectral resolution of 0.6 percent in the J, H and K atmospheric windows. The instrument was fully background limited over the entire wavelength range. The sky background was quite low, reaching 14.3 mag/square arc sec in the broadband K _s filter. The image quality of the camera + telescope was excellent, being seeing limited in the range 0.5–0.9.The science demonstration observations of the NIRC on the Keck Telescope included observations of the most distant galaxy known, 4C41.17 at a redshift z=3.8 and the most luminous object known, the IRAS source FSC10214+4724 at a redshift z=2.29. Observations of the radio galaxy address the problem of the alignment effect in high redshift radio galaxies as well as the environments of such systems. FSC10214+4724 appears to be a merging galaxy that is at least 5×10⁸ years old.Based on observations obtained at the W.M.Keck Observatory, which is operated jointly by the California Institute of Technology and the University of CaliforniaThe W.M. Keck Observatory is operated as a scientific partnership between the California Institute of Technology and the University of California. It was made possible by the generous gift of the W.M. Keck foundation and the support of its president, Howard Keck.