地震的震级频度分布与古登堡—里克特关系式的偏离:大震之前前兆异常的检测

本文介绍了表示地震的震级频度分布与古登堡-里克特(GR)关系式偏离的一种量度。以前曾认为震级频度分布遵从古登堡-里克特关系式,然而,实际分布常常与这一关系式偏离相当大。令n_i、N、M_0和b分别是震级为M_i～M_i+△M的事件数目、地震的总数目、震级的下限以及古登堡-里克特关系式的b值。这样,用Kullback-Leibler平均信息就可给出偏离的量度:式中,p(X_i)=n_i/N,q(X_i)= b ln 10 exp(-b ln 10 X_i),函数q(X_i)代表古登堡-里克特分布,因此这个量度给出了震级分布与古登堡-里克特关系式的偏离程度。如果地震的震级分布与古登堡-里克特关系式符合得越好,那么‘C’值将越小;而如果分布精确地遵从古登堡-里克特关系式时,‘C’为零。相反,如果分布与古登堡-里克特关系式偏离很大,‘C’指标给出的值也很大。我们研究了日本的大地震和震群前后‘C’值随时间的变化,结果显示出大震前后‘C’值的变化是不可忽视的。在大震之前,‘C’值变小,这说明震级分布与古登堡-里克特关系式吻合得较好,主震之后,‘C’急剧变化。在震群活动期间,‘C’值的变化也相当大,但是,震群的‘C’值比一般地震的‘C’值小些。在某些震群中,‘C’指标在最大活动时刻达到极大值。这个量度是很有用的工具,用它可观测地震活动的典型特征并且或许可用来作为检验大震的前兆现象。     

Marine risk assessment: linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in the North Sea

The fate of linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in estuaries and coastal areas of the North Sea has been characterized with simple environmental models. The predicted concentration range in the estuaries around the North Sea (0.9-9 microg LAS l(-1)) was validated by monitoring data (1-9 microg LAS l(-1)). In offshore sites of the North Sea, it is estimated--and experimentally verified for a few sites--that the LAS concentration is below analytical detection limit (i.e., 0.5 microg LAS l(-1)). The effects of LAS on marine organisms have been reviewed. For short-term acute tests, there was no significant difference (p = 0.83) between the mean LC50 values of freshwater and marine organisms (mainly pelagic species tested, 4.1 and 4.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively). For longer-term chronic tests, it appeared that the sensitivity (mean no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) value) of marine and freshwater organisms (0.3 and 2.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively) was significantly different pt-test = 0.007). The predicted no-effect-concentrations (PNEC) were 360 and 31 microg LAS l(-1), for freshwater and marine pelagic communities, respectively. Given that the maximum expected estuarine and marine concentrations are 3 to > 30 times lower than the PNEC, the risk of LAS to pelagic organisms in these environments is judged to be low.     

用于地震检测与定位的卷积神经网络

近期,美国中部诱发地震的活动演变亟需详尽的编目结果,以提升地震灾害评估能力。在过去的几十年里,地震事件的数据量呈指数增长,这就需要一种高效的算法可靠地检测和定位地震。目前最复杂的方法是通过对大量连续地震记录进行扫描,寻找重复的地震信号。我们根据人工智能领域最新进展提出了ConvNetQuake,它是一个高度可扩展的卷积神经网络,应用单一波形进行地震检测和定位。我们将该技术应用于美国俄克拉何马州的诱发地震活动研究。我们检测到的地震事件数量超过了俄克拉何马州地质调查局之前编目结果的17倍之多。我们算法的处理速度较已有的方法快数个数量级。     

AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF MINE TAILINGS ON THE EUPHOTIC ZONE OF A PELAGIC ECOSYSTEM

A computer analysis was performed on experimental results obtained when mine tailings were added to seawater. The Mixed Upper-Layer Ecotrophie Simulation (MULES) model was tested by changing the extinction coefficient and the abundance of heterotrophic zooflagellates. Increasing the extinction coefficient resulted in a delay of phytoplankton growth, an increase in zooplankton standing stock and better growth of autotrophic flagellates compared with diatoms. Zooflagellates in the ecosystem influence the growth of zooplankton; secondary production by zooplankton was markedly depressed at low levels of zooflagellates. These results are believed to be of general significance for the diagnosis of suspended sediment effects on planktonic ecosystems.     

A PETROGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE CHINESE AGALMATOLITES

Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION. The most popular Chinese agalmatolites are Shoushanshih (壽山石), Changhuashih (昌化石), Chingtienshih (青田石) and Kwanglushih (廣綠石). They are named after the names of places, as the name Shoushanshih is from     

第23章 DNS模式:一种为大洋波浪预报而改进的谱模式

23.1 介绍 模拟与频率和方向相关的大洋波谱F（f,θ）的工作是极其困难的。唯一有点统一的理论（Hasselmann,1967）也还没有简化成一种实用形式。这篇研究中所探讨的是结合零散的,现有的理论,以达到这样一种目的:即发展一种与我们目前对风浪成长谱的了解相一致 ·95.的波谱模式。本章中我们将讨论一种离散的谱模式,这种模式采用了一种改进的能量传播的特征方法。数值方法最早是由Barnett等（1969）提出的。     

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE CHEMICAL AND MINERALOGICAL COMPOSITION OF LOESS.

In general, geologically speaking, it has been noted that if the formation of coal took place during the Permo-Carboniferous period, its volatile matter will al ways be less than 30％ when analized, and the contrary is usually the case for coal created during the Tertiary and Jurassic, these having more than 40％.     

Flow depletion in a small stream caused by ground water abstraction from wells

The interaction between a gaining stream and a water-table aquifer is studied at an outwash plain. The aquifer is hydraulically well connected to the stream. Pumping tests were carried out in 1997 and 1998 in two wells 60 m from the stream, screening different depths of the aquifer. Drawdown was measured on both sides of the stream. Hydraulic head, drawdown, and stream depletion data were analyzed using numerical flow models. Similar models were fitted to each of two different data sets: Model A was fitted to steady-state hydraulic head and streamflow gain data not influenced by pumping; and model B was fitted to drawdown data measured during the 1998 pumping test. Each calibrated model closely fits its calibration data; however, predictions were biased if model A was used to predict the calibration data of model B, and vice versa. To further test the models, they were used to predict streamflow depletion during the two pumping tests as well as the drawdown during the 1997 test. Neither of these data were used for calibration. Model A predicted the measured depletions fairly accurately during both tests, whereas the predicted drawdowns in 1997 were significantly larger than actually measured. Contrary to this, the 1997 drawdowns predicted by model B were nearly unbiased; the predicted depletions deviate significantly from the measured depletions in 1997, but they compare well with the observations in 1998. Thus, although field work and analyses were extensive and done carefully to develop a ground water flow model that could predict both drawdown and streamflow depletion, the model predictions are biased. Analyses indicate that the deviations between model and data may be because of error in the models' representations of either the release of water from storage or of the hydrology in the riparian zone.