The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

The electric potential gradient in mist,haze, and fog

The variation of potential gradient in mist, haze, and fog has been studied. During the formation of these hydrometers the potential gradients were found to increase. Large positive potential gradients were observed during dense fog conditions. Possible charge generation mechanisms responsible for these potential gradients during fog formation are discussed.     

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

柴达木盆地昆特依盐湖沉积特征及其盐类资源评价

昆特依盐湖位于柴达木盆地西北部,是一个相对独立的沉积盆地,可反映盆地西北部的演化历史,对研究盆地内盐湖演化有重要意义。基于研究区已有的研究成果,总结和评价了昆特依盐湖沉积与盐类矿产资源,并得到以下结论:1)昆特依湖自1 925～774 ka期间以暖湿型气候为主,其后呈干冷与暖湿气候交替出现,最早成盐期为1150 ka,最终于30.6 ka成为干盐湖。昆特依盆地早期沉积的细碎屑沉积物沉积速率(0.22 mm/a)慢于晚期沉积的石盐层(0.33 mm/a);2)昆特依盐湖液体KCl储量为1.32×10~8 t,MgCl储量为2.79×10~8 t,NaCl储量为24.15×10~8 t;3)估算出赋存于昆特依盐湖石盐矿中的锂资源量达39×10~4 t,同时估算出液体中的锂资源量约有74×10~4 t,二者总量达百万吨;4)昆特依矿田的成因属典型的内陆湖相沉积,成矿控制因素以构造作用为主,其次为气候及物质来源。关于昆特依盐湖沉积特征与盐类矿产资源特征的研究,有利于对本地区地质演化更全面的认识,对合理开发利用盐类资源有重要意义。     

Optimization of Preparative Separation and Purification of Total PolyphenoJs from Sargassum tenerrimum by Column Chromatography

Polyphenols from the ethanol extracts of Sargassum tenerrimum （ST） with potent antiallergic effects were studied to optimize separation process through column chromatography. The adsorption and desorption characteristics of three widely used adsorbents： macroporous resin, silica gel, and polyvinylpolypyrrolidone （PVPP）, were critically evaluated respectively and studied for the optimization of preparative separation of polyphenols. Static operations on these adsorbents showed that macroporous resin had the best adsorption and desorption capability among the three adsorbents. Dynamic adsorption and desorption with macroporous resin packed column were also conducted to optimize the parameters such as： with the optimal values shown in brackets, the concen- tration of extract solution （4 times diluted）, pH value （6-7）, adsorption speed （3BVh-1, bed volumes/per hour）, concentration of ethanol （80%）, elution speed （3 BV ht） and elution volume （7 BV）. The chromatographic process so optimized gave a purity of 62.43% from the crude polyphenols, providing a promising basis for large scale preparation of bioactive polyphenols upon further scaling up tests.     

Timing and preservation mechanism of deglacial pteropod spike from the Andaman Sea,northeastern Indian Ocean

The aragonite compensation depth (ACD) fluctuated considerably during the last glacial until the Holocene with a dominant pteropod preservation spike during the deglacial period, which is prominently seen in three well‐dated cores covering the Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean. The precise time period of the preservation spike of pteropods is not known but this knowledge is crucial for stratigraphical correlation and also for understanding the driving mechanism. Isotopic and foraminiferal proxies were used to decipher the possible mechanism for pteropods preservation in the Andaman Sea. The poor preservation/absence of pteropods during the Holocene in the Andaman Sea may have implications for ocean acidification, driven by enhanced atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Strengthening of the summer monsoon and the resultant high biological productivity may also have played a role in the poor preservation of pteropods. The deglacial pteropod spike is characterized by high abundance/preservation of the pteropods between ～19 and 15 cal. ka BP, associated with very low atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Isotope data suggest the prevalence of a glacial environment with reduced sea surface temperature, upwelling and enhanced salinity during the pteropod preservation spike. Total planktic foraminifera and Globigerina bulloides abundances are low during this period, implying a weakened summer monsoon and reduced foraminiferal productivity. Based on the preservation record of pteropods, it is inferred that the ACD was probably deepest (>2900 m) at 16.5 cal. ka BP. The synchronous regional occurrence of the pteropod preservation spike in the Andaman Sea and in the northwestern Indian Ocean could potentially be employed as a stratigraphic marker.     

Development of a flood forecasting system using IFAS: a case study of scarcely gauged Jhelum and Chenab river basins

Development of a well-calibrated, distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting based on rainfall and snowmelt is quite challenging, especially when in situ data is limited or unavailable. This paper presents the study carried out to parameterise the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model for the trans-boundary, scarcely gauged catchments of Jhelum and Chenab rivers in Pakistan. Rainfall-runoff analysis was performed with a two-layered tank configuration, integrating snowmelt and dam and barrage operation from the very upstream in India to Trimmu Barrage in Pakistan. A grid size of 5?×?5 km was considered. Global map topography, land cover and soil data was utilised. The model was tested considering different magnitudes of floods of the years 2014, 2015 and 2017. The results showed that the satellite rainfall product, i.e. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-NRT), underestimated the rainfall volume, compared to the ground-gauged rainfall. The GSMaP-IF correction method showed poor performance owing to the lack of ground observatory rainfall data for correcting the trans-boundary part of the basin. The GSMaP-Type1 correction method showed good results, except for the confluence point where complex flow conditions were not properly reproduced by the model. In addition, the incorporation of dam and barrages in the model improved the simulated flow results. It is concluded that the satellite rainfall estimates must be corrected to improve the results. Snowmelt module estimated the snowmelt contribution as 3 to 7% and 4 to 23% of the average daily discharge during the monsoon season at Mangla Dam and Marala Barrage, respectively, during 2014 and 2015. This study assessed various correction methods and concluded that the model and methodology used in the study functioned well with suitable precipitation.     

Eliciting stakeholder preferences: An application of qualitative and quantitative methods to shrimp aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans

The Sundarbans region of West Bengal in India is inhabited by small-scale farmers and traditional rice paddy-cum-prawn cultivators. Recent policy initiatives by the Government of India may facilitate expansion of commercial shrimp aquaculture in the future, setting the stage for potential conflicts between local stakeholders. We used qualitative and quantitative methods to analyse the preferences of local stakeholders for alternative management options related to shrimp aquaculture development in the region. We then derived management recommendations for the development of shrimp aquaculture in the region that would minimize the environmental impacts of shrimp aquaculture, distribute the economic benefits of shrimp aquaculture more equally and develop alternative opportunities for income generation, especially for shrimp Fry Collectors.     

Episodic Performance and Sensitivity of the Urbanized MM5 (uMM5) to Perturbations in Surface Properties in Houston Texas

We present an application of a fine-resolution, meso-urban meteorological model (urbanized MM5; uMM5) to a multi-day episode in August 2000 in the Houston-Galveston Texas, USA region. The model’s episodic performance and its response to small changes in land-cover and surface physical properties in the area, e.g., scenarios of urban heat island mitigation, are evaluated. The model formulation is reviewed along with its parameterizations, data needs, and fine-resolution geometrical input. Development of scenarios of increased urban albedo and vegetative cover is also discussed. This initial application of the uMM5 to the Houston-Galveston region serves as a basis for future model improvements, evaluation of newer data and parameterization applications, testing more aggressive surface modification scenarios, and performing fine-resolution photochemical modelling. It also provides data for comparison of model results with those from previous studies of this region.