Satellite-based rainfall estimation and discharge measurement of Middle Indus River,Pakistan

The impacts of floods and droughts are intensified by climate change, lack of preparedness, and coordination. The average rainfall in study area is ranging from 200 to 400 mm per year. Rain gauge generally provides very accurate measurement of point rain rates and the amounts of rainfall but due to scarcity of the gauge locations provides very general information of the area on regional scale. Recognizing these practical limitations, it is essential to use remote sensing techniques for measuring the quantity of rainfall in the Middle Indus. In this research, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimation can be used as a proxy for the magnitude of rainfall estimates from classical methods (rain gauge), quantity, and its spatial distribution for Middle Indus river basin. In order to use TRMM satellite data for discharge measurement, its accuracy is determined by statistically comparing it with in situ gauged data on daily and monthly bases. The daily R ² value (0.42) is significantly lower than monthly R ² value (0.82), probably due to the time of summation of TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data into daily estimates. Daily TRMM data from 2003 to 2012 was used as input forcing in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model along with other input parameters. The calibration and validation results of SWAT model give R ² = 0.72 and 0.73 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency = 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. Daily and monthly comparison graphs are generated on the basis of model discharge output and observed data.     

Rainfall–runoff,flood inundation and sensitivity analysis of the 2014 Pakistan flood in the Jhelum and Chenab river basin

ABSTRACT

The major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow.     

Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime.Due to poor management and policy implications,blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses.Thus,it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting.In this study,catch and effort data,1996-2009,of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp.Maximum,minimum and average capture production of P.stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons(mt)(1997),9 438 mt(2009) and 11 667 mt/a.Two stock assessment tools viz.CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY(maximum sustainable yield) of this organism.In CEDA,three surplus production models,Fox,Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson,along with three error assumptions,log,log normal and gamma,were used.For initial proportion(IP) 0.8,the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt(CV=0.204,R~2=0.709) and 7 384 mt(CV=0.149,R~2=0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively.Here,gamma error produced minimization failure.Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log,log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e.7 083 mt,8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly.The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R~2(0.712) values.ASPIC computed MSY,CV,R~2,F_(MSY)and B_(MSY) parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt,0.142,0.872,0.111 and 65 280,while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt,0.148,0.868,0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly.Results obtained have shown that P.stylifera has been overexploited.Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Integrated Remote Sensing and</Emphasis> Structural Analysis Studies of Tayyib Al-Ism Area,Northwestern Arabian Shield,Saudi Arabia

Geological and structural mappings of Tayyib Al-Ism area were carried out using the rocks finite strain data, the Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data and the field based observations. To analyze the finite strain in the studied rocks, the R_f /? and Fry methods are applied to feldspar porphyroclasts and mafic grains from nine metavolcano-sedimentary samples (Hegaf Formation), four diorite-gabbros suite samples (Sawawin Complex), two meta-granite samples (Ifal suite) and five Zuhd alkali granite samples. The obtained data indicate traces of high to moderate level of deformation in the meta-granite and metavolcano-sedimentary rocks. The axial ratios along the XZ section range from 1.70 to 4.80 for the R_f/? method and from 1.50 to 4.50 for the Fry method. A sub-vertical trend of short axes in association with sub-horizontal foliation is also observed. These informations allow us to conclude that a finite strain in the deformed granitic rocks is of the same order of magnitude as in the metavolcano-sedimentary rocks. The contacts between the metavolcano-sedimentary and granitic rocks in Tayyib al Ism area were formed during the granitic intrusions along some of the faults under brittle to semi-ductile deformation conditions. These faults have significantly influenced the geometry and style of rifting in the Red Sea during the Neogene. The finite strain was accumulated in the area during the process of deformation, which superimpose the already existed nappe structure. It indicates that the nappe contacts formed during the accumulation of finite strain. In addition to finite strain analysis, band ratio images (3/1, 5/3, 7/5) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique have been used, which proved effective in mapping geological and structural features of various rock bodies exposed in the study area.     

Eliciting stakeholder preferences: An application of qualitative and quantitative methods to shrimp aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans

The Sundarbans region of West Bengal in India is inhabited by small-scale farmers and traditional rice paddy-cum-prawn cultivators. Recent policy initiatives by the Government of India may facilitate expansion of commercial shrimp aquaculture in the future, setting the stage for potential conflicts between local stakeholders. We used qualitative and quantitative methods to analyse the preferences of local stakeholders for alternative management options related to shrimp aquaculture development in the region. We then derived management recommendations for the development of shrimp aquaculture in the region that would minimize the environmental impacts of shrimp aquaculture, distribute the economic benefits of shrimp aquaculture more equally and develop alternative opportunities for income generation, especially for shrimp Fry Collectors.     

Impact analysis of climate change on Kolahoi Glacier in Liddar Valley,north-western Himalayas

Glaciers are among the most conspicuous and dynamic features on the earth’s surface and are also highly sensitive to changes in climatic parameters. Glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas have been reported to be retreating due to climate forcing. Kolahoi Glacier is one of the largest and important glaciers of the Kashmir Himalayas and is the main source of Liddar River, which is the largest tributary of the Jhelum River system. In the present study, an analysis to assess the response of Kolahoi Glacier to the changing climate was carried out using the Survey of India (SoI) map and multi-temporal Landsat satellite data. The results show a significant change in the spatial extent of Kolahoi Glacier. The total area of this glacier has reduced from 12.21 km² in 1962 to 11.61 km² in 2010. An analysis of meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) shows that the average annual temperature increased from 9.1 °C in 1980–1989 to 10.3 °C in 2000–2009, while the precipitation decreased from 1329.44 to 1126.89 mm during the same period. The results suggest that this glacier will be annihilated completely if the same retreating trend continues.     

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

Water balance of the Sudanese savannah woodland region

Abstract

The annual water balance for 39 grid cells covering the savannah woodland region of Sudan (10–16°N; 21–36°E) was determined and regional maps produced. Long-term (1961–1990) mean monthly climate data, National Forest Inventory data and Harmonized World Soil Database data for arenosols and vertisols, the two dominant soil types in the region, were used. Model validation was performed using daily data from a site in one of the grid cells and inter-annual (1961–1990) variation examined for another grid cell. Rainfall varied from 147 to 732 mm and only exceeded evapotranspiration for 18 of the grid cells, resulting in a small increase in soil moisture and runoff. Evapotranspiration accounted for, on average, 96% of rainfall and there was little difference between soil types. Drainage only occurred from AR soils and for four of the grid cells. Runoff varied from 0 to 89 mm for arenosols and from 0 to 109 mm for vertisols. The study provided useful insights into the spatial variability in water balance components across the region.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten