Coda Q in the Kachchh Basin, Western India Using Aftershocks of the Bhuj Earthquake of January 26, 2001

Q_C-estimates of Kachchh Basin in western India have been obtained in a high frequency range from 1.5 to 24.0 Hz using the aftershock data of Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001 recorded within an epicentral distance of 80 km. The decay of coda waves of 30 sec window from 186 seismograms has been analysed in four lapse time windows, adopting the single backscattering model. The study shows that Q_c is a function of frequency and increases as frequency increases. The frequency dependent Q_c relations obtained for four lapse-time windows are: Q_c=82 f^1.17 (20–50 sec), Q_c=106 f^1.11 (30–60 sec), Q_c=126f^1.03 (40–70 sec) and Q_c=122f^1.02 (50–80 sec). These empirical relations represent the average attenuation properties of a zone covering the surface area of about 11,000, 20,000, 28,000 and 38,000 square km and a depth extent of about 60, 80, 95, 110 km, respectively. With increasing window length, the degree of frequency dependence, n, decreases marginally from 1.17 to 1.02, whereas Q₀ increases significantly from 82 to 122. At lower frequencies up to 6 Hz, Q_c⁻¹ of Kachchh Basin is in agreement with other regions of the world, whereas at higher frequencies from 12 to 24 Hz it is found to be low.     

Temporal Assessment of Growing Stock, Biomass and Carbon Stock of Indian Forests

The dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems depends on interactions between carbon, nutrient and hydrological cycles. Terrestrial ecosystems retain carbon in live biomass (aboveground and belowground), decomposing organic matter, and soil. Carbon is exchanged naturally between these systems and the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and combustion. Human activities change carbon stock in these pools and exchanges between them and the atmosphere through land-use, land-use change, and forestry.In the present study we estimated the wood (stem) biomass, growing stock (GS) and carbon stock of Indian forests for 1984 and 1994. The forest area, wood biomass, GS, and carbon stock were 63.86 Mha, 4327.99 Mm³, 2398.19 Mt and 1085.06 Mt respectively in 1984 and with the reduction in forest area, 63.34 Mha, in 1994, wood biomass (2395.12 Mt) and carbon stock (1083.69 Mt) also reduced subsequently. The Conifers, of temperate region, stocked maximum carbon in their woods, 28.88 to 65.21 t C ha⁻¹, followed by Mangrove forests, 28.24 t C ha⁻¹, Dipterocarp forests, 28.00 t C ha⁻¹, and Shorea robusta forests, 24.07 t C ha⁻¹. Boswellia serrata, with 0.22 Mha forest area, stocked only 3.91 t C ha⁻¹. To have an idea of rate of carbon loss the negative changes (loss of forest area) in forest area occurred during 1984–1994 (10yrs) and 1991–1994 (4yrs) were also estimated. In India, land-use changes and fuelwood requirements are the main cause of negative change. Total 24.75 Mt C was lost during 1984–1994 and 21.35 Mt C during 1991–94 at a rate of 2.48 Mt C yr⁻¹ and 5.35 Mt C yr⁻¹ respectively. While in other parts of India negative change is due to multiple reasons like fuelwood, extraction of non-wood forest products (NWFPs), illicit felling etc., but in the northeastern region of the country shifting cultivation is the only reason for deforestation. Decrease in forest area due to shifting cultivation accounts for 23.0% of the total deforestation in India, with an annual loss of 0.93 Mt C yr⁻¹.     

Multimodel based superensemble forecasts for short and medium range NWP over various regions of Africa

Summary This study examines the predictability of weather over several regions in Africa using a multimodel superensemble technique developed at the Florida State University, which is an objective means of combining daily forecasts from multilevel global models. It is referred to as FSUSE and up to 7 different models are used to construct the superensemble. The benchmark reanalysis fields used are the precipitation data sets from CMORPH and all other global fields from ECMWF daily operational analysis. The FSUSE works by using multiple linear regression to derive weights from a comparison of each member model forecast to the benchmark analysis during a training period of the most recent 120 days, and these weights are passed to the forecast phase. This procedure removes the bias of each model and allows for an optimal linear combination of the individual model forecasts by taking account of the relative skill of each model to give a consensus forecast that is superior to the ensemble mean and all the members. Results show that bad models and poor analysis fields used during the training phase degrade the skill of the FSUSE. In the forecasts of rainfall events over all regions of Africa, the FSUSE root-mean-square (R M S) error, equitable threat skill score (E T S), and bias on the daily forecasts of rainfall were invariably superior to the best member model. The skills deteriorate as the forecast lead time in days increases, with the degradation being most significant beyond day 3. In all cases, the bias score of the FSUSE was approximately 1, while the anomaly correlation scores were to the order of 0.9. These scores indicate the robustness of the FSUSE forecasts. Over East Africa, the FSUSE forecasts were consistent with the spatial-temporal pattern of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the main rain bearing synoptic mechanism across tropical Africa. Thus, in addition to superior forecasts, the use of FSUSE based data sets may provide a better understanding of the dynamical processes within the ITCZ over the region. These results could be further improved if the daily series of operational analysis had included gauge data and if the resolution were higher. It is hardly possible to get uniformly consistent and continuous daily observations over these diverse regions of Africa. However, given the availability of the satellite based estimates of daily rainfall, such as CMORPH and global analysis that are exchanged very fast nowadays, the FSUSE scheme for numerical weather predictions (N W P) provides useful medium range weather forecasts in real-time.     

Reliability analysis for bearing capacity of surface strip footing using fuzzy finite element method

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the reliability analysis on the basis of the foundation failure against bearing capacity using the concept of fuzzy set theory. A surface strip footing is considered for the analysis and the bearing capacity is estimated using the conventional Finite Element Method (FEM). The spatial variability of the variables is taken into consideration to capture the physical randomness of the soil parameters for an isotropic field. A variation of the probability of failure (P_f) against a varying limiting applied pressure (q) is presented for different Coefficient of Variation (COV) of the variables and different scale of fluctuation (θ). The results reveal that the friction angle of soil (?) is the most influencing parameter among the other variables. Further, the influence of the scale of fluctuation (θ) on the probability of failure (P_f) is also examined. It is observed that for a particular COV of ?, higher value of θ predicts higher P_f whereas, P_f increases as COV of ? increases for a particular θ value. Later, a comparison study is accomplished to verify the viability of the present method and it can be noticed that the present method compares well with the other reliability method (First Order Reliability Method) to a reasonably good extent.     

A simple approach for the determination of bulk modulus and equation of state under the effect of high temperature for minerals

A simple theoretical method for the determination of bulk modulus and equation of state is investigated and applied for six minerals of geophysical importance. The results obtained at different temperatures are found to present a good agreement with the experimental data. The simplicity of the method is discussed in the light of other methods in high temperature research on minerals. Received: 7 January 1996 / Revised, accepted: 11 June 1997     

An analytical source function for a coupled hybrid wave model

An analytical form for the source function is formulated by comparing the fetch-limited approximation of the Ocean Wave Transport equation and the empirical equation for the fetch-dependent wave forecast nomograms. The source function thus generated has been utilised in the numerical model based on Toba’s formulation of wave transport equation and tested for the seas around the Indian subcontinent (5°S to 25°N latitude; 45°E to 100°E longitude). The grid averaged hindcast wave heights are found to be moderately matching with the GEOSAT altimeter measured significant wave heights of the 1987–1989 period, particularly for waves higher than 1 meter.     

Some results of induced polarisation surveys for sulphide mineralisation in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat,India

Some results of induced polarisation surveys carried out for the exploration of sulphide mineralisation in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, employing both frequency-domain and time-domain techniques, are presented. A few typical examples of I.P. results along with borehole sections and results of conventional geophysical surveys have been incorporated. Frequency-domain and time-domain I.P. data have been compared for selected areas.Borehole data pertaining to several areas investigated have corroborated the I.P. results fairly well.     

Theoretical analysis of telluric anomaly of a basin structure

The solution of a boundary value problem modelling a two-dimensional basin structure has been obtained by using the Schwartz-Christoffel conformal transformation technique and numerical methods of solving non-linear differential equations. Utilizing this solution, the telluric field and its first horizontal derivative have been theoretically computed for field directions perpendicular to the strike of the structure. On the basis of systematic analysis of a large number of such anomaly curves, two nomograms have been prepared to be used in the quantitative interpretation of telluric data. An interpretation procedure to evaluate the geometric parameters of the basin from the observed telluric data is outlined. This procedure is demonstrated on an actual field example.     

Gravel fabric in a sub-Himalayan braided stream

Data on the fabric properties of gravels have been collected at 10 locations over a distance of 27 km from the Chakki River — a braided channel of the Beas River system. The imbrication of AB-planes reveals a close correspondence with the channel direction; the deviations seldom exceed 30°. Increase in sinuosity and the existence of subsidiary channels contribute, at some locations, to larger deviations. Imbrication directions tend to be modified because of the influence of local channels which develop temporarily on the bar surfaces.A current-normal mode exists for the A-axis orientation data. Bimodal distributions are recognised and attributed to shifting flow conditions. Variance values are low for both the imbrication and A-axis data. The range in mean values of the dip of AB-planes is between 22.6° and 37.6° with s = 8° to 14°. The mean values of plunge of the A-axis vary from 2.9° to 13.2° with s = 3.4° to 12.69°. There is a marked decrease in plunge of the A-axis in the downstream direction in the Chakki River.A particle size versus orientation approach indicates that, irrespective of size, there is a strong upcurrent imbrication. Longitudinal alignment of particles in the smaller size intervals is not supported by the data obtained in this study. A particle shape versus orientation approach reveals that the A-axis orientation is not dependent on particle shape. The A-axis fabric patterns of both tabular and bladed clasts show a peripheral circular arrangement of the maxima, the bisectrix of which points in a current-normal direction. Orientation patterns do not reflect any control in terms of the lithic composition of clasts.