Exoplanet atmospheres with EChO: spectral retrievals using EChOSim

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory mission concept for constraining the atmospheric properties of hot and warm gas giants and super Earths. Synthetic primary and secondary transit spectra for a range of planets are passed through EChOSim [13] to obtain the expected level of noise for different observational scenarios; these are then used as inputs for the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code and the retrieved atmospheric properties (temperature structure, composition and cloud properties) compared with the known input values, following the method of [1]. To correctly retrieve the temperature structure and composition of the atmosphere to within 2 σ, we find that we require: a single transit or eclipse of a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like (G2) star at 35 pc to constrain the terminator and dayside atmospheres; 20 transits or eclipses of a warm Jupiter orbiting a similar star; 10 transits/eclipses of a hot Neptune orbiting an M dwarf at 6 pc; and 30 transits or eclipses of a GJ1214b-like planet.     

Petrology and trace element geochemistry of Tissint,the newest shergottite fall

The fall and recovery of the Tissint meteorite in 2011 created a rare opportunity to examine a Martian sample with a known, short residence time on Earth. Tissint is an olivine‐phyric shergottite that accumulated olivine antecrysts within a single magmatic system. Coarse olivine grains with nearly homogeneous cores of Mg# >80 suggest slow re‐equilibration. Many macroscopic features of this sample resemble those of LAR 06319, including the olivine crystal size distribution and the presence of evolved oxide and olivine compositions. Unlike LAR 06319, however, no magmatic hydrous phases were found in the analyzed samples of Tissint. Minor and trace element compositions indicate that the meteorite is the product of closed‐system crystallization from a parent melt derived from a depleted source, with no obvious addition of a LREE‐rich (crustal?) component prior to or during crystallization. The whole‐rock REE pattern is similar to that of intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001 lithology A, and could also be approximated by a more olivine‐rich version of depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201. Magmatic oxygen fugacities are at the low end of the shergottite range, with log fO₂ of QFM‐3.5 to ‐4.0 estimated based on early‐crystallized minerals and QFM‐2.4 estimated based on the Eu in pyroxene oxybarometer. These values are similarly comparable to other depleted shergottites, including SaU 005 and QUE 94201. Tissint occupies a previously unsampled niche in shergottite chemistry: containing olivines with Mg# >80, resembling the enriched olivine‐phyric shergottite LAR 06319 in its crystallization path, and comparable to intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001A, depleted olivine‐phyric shergottite DaG 476, and depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201 in its trace element abundances and oxygen fugacity. The apparent absence of evidence for terrestrial alteration in Tissint (particularly in trace element abundances in the whole‐rock and individual minerals) confirms that exposure to the arid desert environment results in only minimal weathering of samples, provided the exposure times are brief.     

Parhelia in the planetary boundary layer at newmarket,Ontario: Note

Abstract

Observations of parhelia at Newmarket, Ontario on December 10, 1977 support an earlier suggestion regarding observations made in Toronto on January 22 of the same year. Parhelia were found to occur in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), particularly during the morning hours under blowing snow conditions on clear, cold (ca —17°C) winter days. Thus parhelia which occur in southern Ontario during the winter months can develop in the PBL without the presence of cirrostratus‐type clouds.     

A complementary depiction of the interannual variation of atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO events: Research note

Abstract

A simple diagnostic scheme, which combines a low‐pass temporal filter (with an 18‐month cutoff time) with a regular empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, is used to delineate the synchronous evolution of El Nino‐Southern Oscillation‐related (ENSO‐related) modes in various variables of the ocean‐atmosphere system. Based on the causal relation chain of diabatic heating, divergent circulation and rotational flow, the diagnostic scheme extracts ENSO modes from the following data sources: the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the past 14‐years (1979–1992) of data generated by the Global Data Assimilation System of the National Meteorological Center, and a 10‐year (1979–1988) general circulation model climate simulation made at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The analysis reveals the following: (a) the eigencoefficient time series of the first eigenmodes of selected filtered variables, which explain about 40–50% of their total variance, synchronize with the filtered SST averaged over Area NINO‐3; (b) the spatial structures of the first eigenmodes resemble the ensemble departures associated with ENSO events of these variables from their long term means; and (c) the results show that the proposed scheme can be easily applied to isolate and illustrate the time evolution of ENSO modes which exist in the long term observational database as well as in climate simulations.     

Canadian middle atmosphere model: Preliminary results from the chemical transport module

Abstract

An important objective of middle atmosphere global climate modelling is the development of the capability of predicting the response of the middle atmosphere to natural or anthropogenic perturbations. To achieve this, a comprehensive chemistry package interactively coupled with radiative and dynamical modules is required. This paper presents preliminary results obtained with a photochemistry module which has been incorporated in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The module contains 42 species including necessary oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, chlorine, bromine and methane oxidation cycle species. Photochemical balance equations are solved on‐line throughout the middle atmosphere at every dynamical time step. A full diurnal cycle is simulated with photolysis rates provided by a look‐up table. The chemistry solver is a mass conserving, fully implicit, backward difference scheme which currently uses less than 10% of the GCM run time. We present the results obtained from short integrations and compare them with UARS measurements. The model ozone distribution appears in quantitative agreement with observations showing peak values near 10 ppmv and confined to the 35‐km region. The abundance of nitrogen, chlorine, bromine oxides and their respective contributions to the overall ozone budget is realistic. The study illustrates the capability of the model to simulate middle atmosphere photochemistry for the disparate conditions occurring throughout the region.     

Surface pulses in the lower St. Lawrence Estuary

Abstract

Temperature, salinity, sea level and meteorological data from the ‘couplage entre les processus physiques et biogéochimiques’ (COUPPB) study of 1990 were examined to determine the forcing of fresh water pulses in the lower St. Lawrence Estuary. Anchor stations, during and after the passage of a pulse event, indicated that profound changes occurred in the hydrography at the head of the Laurentian Channel. A factor analysis of rotated eigenmodes of surface temperature and salinity indicated three co‐varying groups ‐ the first, on the north shore of the river, the second, on the south slope of the Laurentian Channel and the third in the middle of the estuary. A multivariate regression was used to relate salinity and temperature variations to forcing variates. It was found that sea level elevation and local winds accurately predicted fluctuations on the north shore. Salinity and temperature fluctuations on the south shore were best explained by propagation. In the middle of the estuary, salinity fluctuations were only weakly explained by propagation while temperature fluctuations could not be predicted by any of the forcing variates.     

Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis

An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.     

Evaluation and response of winter cold spells over Western Europe in CMIP5 models

This paper is dedicated to the analysis of winter cold spells over Western Europe in the simulations of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Both model biases and responses in a warming climate are discussed using historical simulations and the 8.5 W/m² Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, respectively on the 1979–2008 and 2070–2099 periods. A percentile-based index (10th percentile of daily minimum temperature, Q10) with duration and spatial extent criteria is used to define cold spells. Related diagnostics (intensity, duration, extent, and severity as a combination of the former three statistics) of 13 models are compared to observations and suggest that models biases on severity are mainly due to the intensity parameter rather than to duration and extent. Some hypotheses are proposed to explain these biases, that involve large-scale dynamics and/or radiative fluxes related to clouds. Evolution of cold spells characteristics by the end of the century is then discussed by comparing RCP8.5 and historical simulations. In line with the projected rise of mean temperature, “present-climate” cold spells (computed with the 1979–2008 10th percentile, Q10P) are projected to be much less frequent and, except in one model, less severe. When cold spells are defined from the future 10th percentile threshold (“future-climate” cold spells, Q10F), all models simulate a decrease of their intensity linearly related to the seasonal mean warming. Some insights are given to explain the inter-model diversity in the magnitude of the cold spells response. In particular, the snow-albedo feedback is suggested to play an important role, while for some models changes in large-scale dynamics are also not negligible.     

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.