Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Same space – different perspectives: comparative analysis of geographic context through sketch maps and spatial video geonarratives

ABSTRACT

The importance of including a contextual underpinning to the spatial analysis of social data is gaining traction in the spatial science community. The challenge, though, is how to capture these data in a rigorous manner that is translational. One method that has shown promise in achieving this aim is the spatial video geonarrative (SVG), and in this paper we pose questions that advance the science of geonarratives through a case study of criminal ex-offenders. Eleven ex-offenders provided sketch maps and SVGs identifying high-crime areas of their community. Wordmapper software was used to map and classify the SVG content; its spatial filter extension was used for hot spot mapping with statistical significance tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, each subject’s sketch map and SVG were compared. Results reveal that SVGs consistently produce finer spatial-scale data and more locations of relevance than the sketch maps. SVGs also provide explanation of spatial-temporal processes and causal mechanisms linked to specific places, which are not evident in the sketch maps. SVG can be a rigorous translational method for collecting data on the geographic context of many phenomena. Therefore, this paper makes an important advance in understanding how environmentally immersive methods contribute to the understanding of geographic context.     

Development of fouling communities on vertical structures in the Baltic Sea

The pillars of the bridge connecting the Island of Öland with the Swedish mainland were rebuilt between 1990 and 2000. The renovation produced pristine vertical concrete substrates, which became submerged in known years and seasons. The fouling communities on the pillars were examined in 2001 to determine whether the community structure could be explained in terms of either orderly successional development or of seasonal variation in the settlement of benthic organisms. As well, the communities on the pillars were compared to communities on the vertical surfaces of boulders in the area. The results indicated that an annual species composition is the final stage in the succession on the observed, vertical constructions. The few perennial species add to the variation between pillars as they increase in biomass (Polysiphonia fucoides) or become out-competed (Balanus improvisus). Also, observed seasonal differences in the biomass of these perennial species indicated that the time of year free space becomes available might be an important determinant of the future structure of the community. Comparison between the pillar and boulder communities showed that the artificial structures were not surrogates for the natural hard substrate: pillar communities differed in that they lacked most perennial algal species and had a high biomass of B. improvisus.     

Temporal patterns and controls on runoff magnitude and solution chemistry of urban catchments in the semiarid southwestern United States

Urban expansion and the scarcity of water supplies in arid and semiarid regions have increased the importance of urban runoff to localized water resources. However, urban catchment responses to precipitation are poorly understood in semiarid regions where intense rainfall often results in large runoff events during the short summer monsoon season. To evaluate how urban runoff quantity and quality respond to rainfall magnitude and timing, we collected stream stage data and runoff samples throughout the 2007 and 2008 summer monsoons from four ephemeral drainages in Tucson, Arizona. Antecedent rainfall explained 20% to 30% of discharge (mm) and runoff ratio in the least impervious (22%) catchment but was not statistically related to hydrologic responses at more impervious sites. Regression models indicated that rainfall depth, imperviousness and their combined effect control discharge and runoff ratios (p < 0.01, r² = 0.91 and 0.75, respectively). In contrast, runoff quality did not vary with imperviousness or catchment size. Rainfall depth and duration, time since antecedent rainfall and event and cumulative discharge controlled runoff hydrochemistry and resulted in five specific solute response patterns: (i) strong event and seasonal solute mobilization (solute flush), (ii) event chemostasis and strong seasonal flush, (iii) event chemostasis and weak seasonal flush, (iv) event and seasonal chemostasis and (v) late seasonal flush. Our results indicate that hydrologic responses of semiarid catchments are controlled by rainfall partitioning at the event scale, whereas wetting magnitude, frequency and timing alter solute stores readily available for transport and control temporal runoff quality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrographische und Kalium-Argon-Untersuchungen an basischen tertiären Vulkaniten zwischen Westerwald und Vogelsberg

Between the upper tertiary volcanic areas of Westerwald and Vogelsberg (central Western Germany) occur more than 40 isolated tertiary volcanic dikes, eroded necks, plugs and domes. Twelve of these volcanic rocks have been investigated petrographically and chemically and classified by means of their modal and chemical composition. Additional modal analyses have been performed on seven other volcanics. On seventeen volcanic occurences K-Ar-whole rock age determinations have been made. The K-Ar age determinations yield- with the exception of an olivine-nephelinite — values between 27 and 15 Ma. Regarding the known intervals of volcanic activities of the Westerwald- and Voge1sberg-areas, most of the examined volcanics can be related genetically with one of the adjacent volcanic areas. There seems to be no geographical overlapping of volcanics showing Westerwaldages and Vogelsberg-ages. A possible influence of excess-Ar-bearing phases (e. g. mantle xenoliths) and an Ar-loss of constituent matter of the groundmass have been estimated by additional age determinations of enriched samples. These influences — partially compensating each other — may shift the K-Ar whole rock age to a maximum of 5 % and thus do not exceed the dimension of the standard deviations. A distinct NNE-SSW-striking fault in the region between Marburg and Gießen is situated parallel with the eastern border of the “Rheinisches Schiefergebirge”. Volcanics showing Westerwald-age and Vogelsberg-age respectively reach this fault, but obviously do not overlap it. Relations between rock-type an rock age, as it has been observed for the volcanics of the northern Hessian Depression (Kreuzer et al. 1973;Wedepohl 1982) cannot be proved certainly. On the other hand, similar to the basaltic rocks of the northern Hessian Depression, the youngest volcanic product is an olivine-nephelinite (9 Ma).     

Impaired osmoregulation in the shrimp Palaemon adspersus exposed to crude oil extract

Palaemon adspersus is a hyper- and hypo-osmoregulating shallow-water shrimp. For a maximum period of 34 days P. adspersus were exposed to 20, 70, 100 and 200 ppb WSF of North Sea crude oil. The osmotic concentration of the haemolymph was measured by freezing point depression once a week. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was significantly decreased (p<0.05) after one, two and three weeks exposure to 200, 70 and 100 ppb, respectively. No effect was observed in 20 ppb. After an accidental exposure of shrimps to 24 h acute oil pollution, they were placed in pure sea water. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was reduced one week after the accidental oil exposure, but was regained within three weeks.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.