Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of pressure solution

This paper is concerned with the thermodynamic theory of solution and precipitation processes in wet crustal rocks and with the mechanism of steady pressure-solution slip in contact zones, such as grain-to-grain contacts, fracture surfaces, and permeable gouge layers, that are infiltrated by a mobile aqueous solution phase. A local dissipation jump condition at the phase boundary is fundamental to identifying the thermodynamic force driving the solution and precipitation process and is used here in setting up linear phenomenological relations to model near-equilibrium phase transformation kinetics. The local thermodynamic equilibrium of a stressed pure solid in contact with its melt or solution phase is governed by Gibbs's relation, which is rederived here, in a manner emphasizing its independence of constitutive assumptions for the solid while neglecting surface tension and diffusion in the solid. Fluid-infiltrated contact zones, such as those formed by rough surfaces, cannot generally be in thermodynamic equilibrium, especially during an ongoing process of pressure-solution slip, and the existing equilibrium formulations are incorrect in overlooking dissipative processes tending to eliminate fluctuations in superficial free energies due to stress concentrations near asperities, defects, or impurities. Steady pressure-solution slip is likely to exhibit a nonlinear dependence of slip rate on shear stress and effective normal stress, due to a dependence of the contact-zone state on the latter. Given that this dependence is negligible within some range, linear relations for pressure-solution slip can be derived for the limiting cases of diffusion-controlled and interface-reaction-controlled rates. A criterion for rate control by one of these mechanisms is set by the magnitude of the dimensionless quantityk/2C _pD, wherek is the interfacial transfer coefficient, is the mean diffusion path length,C _p is the solubility at pressurep, andD is the mass diffusivity.     

Impaired osmoregulation in the shrimp Palaemon adspersus exposed to crude oil extract

Palaemon adspersus is a hyper- and hypo-osmoregulating shallow-water shrimp. For a maximum period of 34 days P. adspersus were exposed to 20, 70, 100 and 200 ppb WSF of North Sea crude oil. The osmotic concentration of the haemolymph was measured by freezing point depression once a week. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was significantly decreased (p<0.05) after one, two and three weeks exposure to 200, 70 and 100 ppb, respectively. No effect was observed in 20 ppb. After an accidental exposure of shrimps to 24 h acute oil pollution, they were placed in pure sea water. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was reduced one week after the accidental oil exposure, but was regained within three weeks.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.     

Coupling of oceanic and continental crust during Eocene eclogite-facies metamorphism: evidence from the Monte Rosa nappe,western Alps

High precision U–Pb geochronology of rutile from quartz–carbonate–white mica–rutile veins that are hosted within eclogite and schist of the Monte Rosa nappe, western Alps, Italy, indicate that the Monte Rosa nappe was at eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions at 42.6 ± 0.6 Ma. The sample area [Indren glacier, Furgg zone; Dal Piaz (2001) Geology of the Monte Rosa massif: historical review and personal comments. SMPM] consists of eclogite boudins that are exposed inside a south-plunging overturned synform within micaceous schist. Associated with the eclogite and schist are quartz–carbonate–white mica–rutile veins that formed in tension cracks in the eclogite and along the contact between eclogite and surrounding schist. Intrusion of the veins at about 42.6 Ma occurred at eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions (480–570°C, >1.3–1.4 GPa) based on textural relations, oxygen isotope thermometry, and geothermobarometry. The timing of eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Monte Rosa nappe determined in this study is identical to that of the Gran Paradiso nappe [Meffan-Main et al. (2004) J Metamorphic Geol 22:261–281], confirming that these two units have shared the same Alpine metamorphic history. Furthermore, the Gran Paradiso and Monte Rosa nappes underwent eclogite-facies metamorphism within the same time interval as the structurally overlying Zermatt-Saas ophiolite [∼50–40 Ma; e.g., Amato et al. (1999) Earth Planet Sci Lett 171:425–438; Mayer et al. (1999) Eur Union Geosci 10:809 (abstract); Lapen et al. (2003) Earth Planet Sci Lett 215:57–72]. The nearly identical P–T–t histories of the Gran Paradiso, Monte Rosa, and Zermatt-Saas units suggest that these units shared a common Alpine tectonic and metamorphic history. The close spatial and temporal associations between high pressure (HP) ophiolite and continental crust during Alpine orogeny indicates that the HP internal basement nappes in the western Alps may have played a key role in exhumation and preservation of the ophiolitic rocks through buoyancy-driven uplift. Coupling of oceanic and continental crust may therefore be critical in preventing permanent loss of oceanic crust to the mantle.