Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Same space – different perspectives: comparative analysis of geographic context through sketch maps and spatial video geonarratives

ABSTRACT

The importance of including a contextual underpinning to the spatial analysis of social data is gaining traction in the spatial science community. The challenge, though, is how to capture these data in a rigorous manner that is translational. One method that has shown promise in achieving this aim is the spatial video geonarrative (SVG), and in this paper we pose questions that advance the science of geonarratives through a case study of criminal ex-offenders. Eleven ex-offenders provided sketch maps and SVGs identifying high-crime areas of their community. Wordmapper software was used to map and classify the SVG content; its spatial filter extension was used for hot spot mapping with statistical significance tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, each subject’s sketch map and SVG were compared. Results reveal that SVGs consistently produce finer spatial-scale data and more locations of relevance than the sketch maps. SVGs also provide explanation of spatial-temporal processes and causal mechanisms linked to specific places, which are not evident in the sketch maps. SVG can be a rigorous translational method for collecting data on the geographic context of many phenomena. Therefore, this paper makes an important advance in understanding how environmentally immersive methods contribute to the understanding of geographic context.     

Development of fouling communities on vertical structures in the Baltic Sea

The pillars of the bridge connecting the Island of Öland with the Swedish mainland were rebuilt between 1990 and 2000. The renovation produced pristine vertical concrete substrates, which became submerged in known years and seasons. The fouling communities on the pillars were examined in 2001 to determine whether the community structure could be explained in terms of either orderly successional development or of seasonal variation in the settlement of benthic organisms. As well, the communities on the pillars were compared to communities on the vertical surfaces of boulders in the area. The results indicated that an annual species composition is the final stage in the succession on the observed, vertical constructions. The few perennial species add to the variation between pillars as they increase in biomass (Polysiphonia fucoides) or become out-competed (Balanus improvisus). Also, observed seasonal differences in the biomass of these perennial species indicated that the time of year free space becomes available might be an important determinant of the future structure of the community. Comparison between the pillar and boulder communities showed that the artificial structures were not surrogates for the natural hard substrate: pillar communities differed in that they lacked most perennial algal species and had a high biomass of B. improvisus.     

Porous,S‐bearing silica in metal‐sulfide nodules and in the interchondrule clastic matrix in two EH3 chondrites

Two new occurrences of porous, S‐bearing, amorphous silica are described within metal‐sulfide nodules (MSN) and as interchondrule patches in EH3 chondrites SAH 97072 and ALH 84170. This porous amorphous material, which was first reported from sulfide‐bearing chondrules, consists of sinewy SiO₂‐rich areas containing S with minor Na or Ca as well as Fe, Mg, and Al. Some pores contain minerals including pyrite, pyrrhotite, and anhydrite. Most pores appear vacant or contain unidentified material that is unstable under analytical conditions. Niningerite, olivine, enstatite, albite, and kumdykolite occur enclosed within porous silica patches. Porous silica is commonly interfingered with cristobalite suggesting its amorphous structure resulted from high‐temperature quenching. We interpret the S‐bearing porous silica to be a product of silicate sulfidation, and the Na, Ca, Fe, Mg, and Al detectable within this material are chemical residues of sulfidized silicates and metal. The occurrence of porous silica in the cores of MSN, which are considered to be pre‐accretionary objects, suggests the sulfidizing conditions occurred prior to final parent‐body solidification. Ubiquitous S‐bearing porous silica among sulfide‐bearing chondrules, MSN, and in the interchondrule clastic matrix, suggests that similar sulfidizing conditions affected all the constituents of these EH3 chondrites.     

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of pressure solution

This paper is concerned with the thermodynamic theory of solution and precipitation processes in wet crustal rocks and with the mechanism of steady pressure-solution slip in contact zones, such as grain-to-grain contacts, fracture surfaces, and permeable gouge layers, that are infiltrated by a mobile aqueous solution phase. A local dissipation jump condition at the phase boundary is fundamental to identifying the thermodynamic force driving the solution and precipitation process and is used here in setting up linear phenomenological relations to model near-equilibrium phase transformation kinetics. The local thermodynamic equilibrium of a stressed pure solid in contact with its melt or solution phase is governed by Gibbs's relation, which is rederived here, in a manner emphasizing its independence of constitutive assumptions for the solid while neglecting surface tension and diffusion in the solid. Fluid-infiltrated contact zones, such as those formed by rough surfaces, cannot generally be in thermodynamic equilibrium, especially during an ongoing process of pressure-solution slip, and the existing equilibrium formulations are incorrect in overlooking dissipative processes tending to eliminate fluctuations in superficial free energies due to stress concentrations near asperities, defects, or impurities. Steady pressure-solution slip is likely to exhibit a nonlinear dependence of slip rate on shear stress and effective normal stress, due to a dependence of the contact-zone state on the latter. Given that this dependence is negligible within some range, linear relations for pressure-solution slip can be derived for the limiting cases of diffusion-controlled and interface-reaction-controlled rates. A criterion for rate control by one of these mechanisms is set by the magnitude of the dimensionless quantityk/2C _pD, wherek is the interfacial transfer coefficient, is the mean diffusion path length,C _p is the solubility at pressurep, andD is the mass diffusivity.     

Impaired osmoregulation in the shrimp Palaemon adspersus exposed to crude oil extract

Palaemon adspersus is a hyper- and hypo-osmoregulating shallow-water shrimp. For a maximum period of 34 days P. adspersus were exposed to 20, 70, 100 and 200 ppb WSF of North Sea crude oil. The osmotic concentration of the haemolymph was measured by freezing point depression once a week. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was significantly decreased (p<0.05) after one, two and three weeks exposure to 200, 70 and 100 ppb, respectively. No effect was observed in 20 ppb. After an accidental exposure of shrimps to 24 h acute oil pollution, they were placed in pure sea water. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was reduced one week after the accidental oil exposure, but was regained within three weeks.