Climate change mitigation strategies for agriculture: an analysis of nationally determined contributions,biennial reports and biennial update reports

The role of agriculture in the context of climate change is a complex issue. On the one hand, concerns about food security highlight the need to prioritize adaptation; on the other hand, the target of the Paris Agreement (keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C) cannot be achieved without a significant decrease in agricultural emissions. Various analyses of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement show how countries intend to prioritize the needs for adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on 46 countries that contribute 90% of global agricultural emissions and asks how they are addressing the agricultural sector in their climate mitigation policies. It takes into account that conditions and circumstances in countries vary significantly but might also indicate similar patterns. The analysis is based on information provided by countries in their NDCs, as well as their Biennial Reports (BRs) or Biennial Update Reports (BURs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It further includes data on national agricultural emissions. By applying a mixed methods approach, which combines qualitative content analysis and comparative cluster analysis, we find that countries vary in their progress on agriculture and climate mitigation for many different reasons. These reasons include the national perception of the problem, divergent starting points for climate policy, particularities of the agricultural sector and, correspondingly, the availability of cost-effective mitigation technologies.

Key policy insights

• While for many countries the NDCs signify the beginning of their climate policy, UNFCCC biennial reports can be used to learn more about the policies that countries have already implemented.

• Mitigation action in the agricultural sector is emphasized most prominently in cases where co-benefits are possible and production is not impacted negatively.

• Policies and measures in the agricultural sector often do not align with the UNFCCC system of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV). In addition to improving MRV-systems, it seems equally important to exchange national experiences with implemented measures and policies.

• The Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture could take into account the problem of different definitions of sector boundaries and thus the importance of different mitigation measures.

     

Relational Hubs for Collaborative Landscape Stewardship

Abstract

Landscape stewardship is considered an important place-based approach to addressing sustainability challenges. Working at landscape-level requires collaboration between diverse landscape stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with local stewardship practitioners across six cases in South Africa to investigate how they facilitate collaboration towards social-ecological sustainability outcomes. We found that practitioners facilitate collaboration among stakeholders by operating as relational hubs in the landscape. Through these hubs, they build new inter-personal relationships among stakeholders, creating social networks which enable stewardship practice. The hubs deepen human-nature relationships by creating enabling conditions for stewards to put stewardship ethics into action. Drawing on insights from these cases, we call for a relational approach to landscape stewardship which focuses on human-to-human and human-to-nature relationships. Moreover, we argue that landscape stewardship initiatives need to re-focus stewardship on stewards, recognizing them as key agents of change in addressing the conflict between agriculture and conservation inherent in many landscapes.     

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region     

Geochemical pattern classification of recent volcanic products from Mt. Etna, Italy, based on Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering

We present the application of a classification method based on Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering to geochemical analyses of volcanic products erupted on Mt. Etna from 1995 to 2005. Based on 13 major and trace elements, the classification allows a new way to visualize distinct compositional features of magma both considering long period as well as single eruptive events, such as in 2001 and 2002–03 flank eruptions. Products of the various vents do not necessarily form homogeneous groups, but show clear trends of chemical evolution with time. Using a convenient color code, the graphical visualization of the results in just a single picture allows the rapid identification of the compositional features of each sample and their comparison with all the products analyzed in the 10-year-long time span. This single picture accounts for the mutual interactions of the 13 components avoiding shortcomings of classical low-dimensional plots where components relevant for the discrimination have to be found in a priori study of many diagrams. On the basis of the synoptic information provided by pattern classification, we identify links between the products of different eruptive vents which deliver a reliable picture of a multifaceted plumbing system, in agreement with geochemical and geophysical evidence reported in literature. The analysis of the 13-dimensional data set using the Kohonen maps and fuzzy clustering simultaneously turned out to be straightforward and easy. Accordingly, the results of this application will be useful also as a contextual data set for new data in future ongoing eruptive episodes.     

Normal modes of synchronous rotation

The dynamics of synchronous rotation and physical librations are revisited in order to establish a conceptually simple and general theoretical framework applicable to a variety of problems. Our motivation comes from disagreements between the results of numerical simulations and those of previous theoretical studies, and also because different theoretical studies disagree on basic features of the dynamics. We approach the problem by decomposing the orientation matrix of the body into perfectly synchronous rotation and deviation from the equilibrium state. The normal modes of the linearized equations are computed in the case of a circular satellite orbit, yielding both the periods and the eigenspaces of three librations. Libration in longitude decouples from the other two, vertical modes. There is a fast vertical mode with a period very close to the average rotational period. It corresponds to tilting the body around a horizontal axis while retaining nearly principal-axis rotation. In the inertial frame, this mode appears as nutation and free precession. The other vertical mode, a slow one, is the free wobble. The effects of the nodal precession of the orbit are investigated from the point of view of Cassini states. We test our theory using numerical simulations of the full equations of the dynamics and discuss the disagreements among our study and previous ones. The numerical simulations also reveal that in the case of eccentric orbits large departures from principal-axis rotation are possible due to a resonance between free precession and wobble. We also revisit the history of the Moon's rotational state and show that it switched from one Cassini state to another when it was at 46.2 Earth radii. This number disagrees with the value 34.2 derived in a previous study.