Preliminary results for a semi-automated quantification of site effects using geomorphometry and ASTER satellite data for Mozambique,Pakistan and Turkey

Estimation of the degree of local seismic wave amplification (site effects) requires precise information about the local site conditions. In many regions of the world, local geologic information is either sparse or is not readily available. Because of this, seismic hazard maps for countries such as Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey are developed without consideration of site factors and, therefore, do not provide a complete assessment of future hazards. Where local geologic information is available, details on the traditional maps often lack the precision (better than 1:10,000 scale) or the level of information required for modern seismic microzonation requirements. We use high-resolution (1:50,000) satellite imagery and newly developed image analysis methods to begin addressing this problem. Our imagery, consisting of optical data and digital elevation models (DEMs), is recorded from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor system. We apply a semi-automated, object-oriented, multi-resolution feature segmentation method to identify and extract local terrain features. Then we classify the terrain types into mountain, piedmont and basin units using geomorphometry (topographic slope) as our parameter. Next, on the basis of the site classification schemes from the Wills and Silva (1998) study and the Wills et al (2000) and Wills and Clahan (2006) maps of California, we assign the local terrain units with V _s 30 (the average seismic shear-wave velocity through the upper 30m of the subsurface) ranges for selected regions in Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey. We find that the applicability of our site class assignments in each region is a good first-approximation for quantifying local site conditions and that additional work, such as the verification of the terrain’s compositional rigidity, is needed.     

Quick-look assessments to identify optimal CO2 EOR storage sites

A newly developed, multistage quick-look methodology allows for the efficient screening of an unmanageably large number of reservoirs to generate a workable set of sites that closely match the requirements for optimal CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage. The objective of the study is to quickly identify miscible CO₂ EOR candidates in areas that contain thousands of reservoirs and to estimate additional oil recovery and sequestration capacities of selected top options through dimensionless modeling and reservoir characterization. Quick-look assessments indicate that the CO₂ EOR resource potential along the US Gulf Coast is 4.7 billion barrels, and CO₂ sequestration capacity is 2.6 billion metric tons. In the first stage, oil reservoirs are screened and ranked in terms of technical and practical feasibility for miscible CO₂ EOR. The second stage provides quick estimates of CO₂ EOR potential and sequestration capacities. In the third stage, a dimensionless group model is applied to a selected set of sites to improve the estimates of oil recovery and storage potential using appropriate inputs for rock and fluid properties, disregarding reservoir architecture and sweep design. The fourth stage validates and refines the results by simulating flow in a model that describes the internal architecture and fluid distribution in the reservoir. The stated approach both saves time and allows more resources to be applied to the best candidate sites.     

Surface evolution of dissolving minerals investigated with a kinetic Ising model

In natural weathering systems, both the chemistry and the topography of mineral surfaces change as rocks and minerals equilibrate to surface conditions. Most geochemical research has focused on changes in solution chemistry over time; however, temporal changes in surface topography may also yield information about rates and mechanisms of dissolution. We use stochastic dissolution simulations of a regular 2-D lattice with reaction mechanisms defined in terms of nearest neighbor interactions to elucidate how the surface area and reactivity of a crystal evolve during dissolution. Despite the simplicity of the model, it reproduces key features observed or inferred for mineral dissolution. Our model results indicate that: (i) dissolving surfaces reach a steady-state conformation after sufficient dissolution time, (ii) linear defects cause surface area and dissolution rate to vary in concert with one another, (iii) sigmoidal and non-sigmoidal rate vs. free-energy of reaction (ΔG_rxn) behavior can be rationalized in terms of the multiple steps occurring during dissolution, and (iv) surface roughness as a function of ΔG_rxn is highly sensitive to the reaction mechanism. When simulated times to reach steady-state are compared to published time series rate data using suitable scaling, good agreement is found for silicate minerals while the model significantly over-predicts the duration of the transient for Fe and Al oxides. The implication of our simple model is that many aspects of mineral dissolution behavior, including approach to steady-state, sigmoidal vs. non-sigmoidal rate vs. ΔG_rxn behavior, and development of rougher surfaces in conditions further from equilibrium can be explained by nearest neighbor interactions and simple Kossel-type models where reactivity of a surface is defined in terms of perfect surface, step, and kink sites.     

Participation in payments for ecosystem services: Case studies from the Lacandon rainforest, Mexico

Understanding people’s willingness to participate in projects and programmes of payments for ecosystem services (PES) has not been a key analytical concern of the scholarly literature around this new field of environmental policy and practice. This paper analyses participation in four communities benefiting from payments for biodiversity and carbon fixation in Mexico, and contrasts the results for each case with neighbouring communities that do not receive payments. We take a holistic approach that accounts for procedural rules, actors’ interactions, institutions and values, and individuals’ characteristics. We show that the nature of PES rules and the effectiveness of communication with government officers and NGOs influence resource managers’ ability and willingness to participate. We highlight community size, resource managers’ ability to diversify livelihood activities and local perspectives on the conservation of common forests, particularly sacred values and intergenerational concerns on forest conservation, as critical participation drivers. This analysis provides insights on why and how these new institutions may be attractive for some resource managers and permits to draw some recommendations for the future design of PES projects and programmes.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Multi-decadal synthesis of benthic–pelagic coupling in the western arctic: Role of cross-shelf advective processes

Using geographic information systems (GIS) software and geostatistical techniques, we utilized three decades of water-column chlorophyll a data to examine the relative importance of autochthonous versus allochthonous sources of reduced carbon to benthic communities that occur from the northern Bering to the eastern Beaufort Sea shelf. Spatial trend analyses revealed areas of high benthic biomass (>300 g m⁻²) and chlorophyll (>150 mg m⁻²) on both the southern and northern Chukchi shelf; both areas are known as depositional centers for reduced organic matter that originates on the Bering Sea shelf and is advected northward in Anadyr and Bering shelf water masses. We found a significant correlation between biomass and chlorophyll a in the Chukchi Sea, reflective of the strong benthic–pelagic coupling in a system that is utilized heavily by benthic-feeding marine mammals. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between biomass and chlorophyll in the Beaufort Sea, which by comparison, is considerably less productive (biomass and chlorophyll, <75 g m⁻² and <50 mg m⁻², respectively). One notable exception is an area of relatively high biomass (50–100 g m⁻²) and chlorophyll (80 mg m⁻²) near Barter Island in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Compared to other adjacent areas in the Beaufort Sea, the chlorophyll values in the vicinity of Barter Island were considerably higher and likely reflect a long-hypothesized upwelling in that area and close coupling between the benthos and autochthonous production. In the Bering Sea, a drop in benthic biomass in 1994 compared with previous measurements (1974–1993) may support earlier observations that document a decline in biomass that began between the 1980s and 1990s in the Chirikov Basin and south of St. Lawrence Island. The results of this study indicate that the benthos is an excellent long-term indicator of both local and physical advective processes. In addition, this work provides further evidence that secondary production on arctic shelves can be significantly augmented by reduced carbon advected from highly productive adjacent shelves.     

Mussels document loss of bioavailable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the return to baseline conditions for oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected between 1990 and 2002 from 11 sites on the shores of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, that were heavily oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). This study, utilizing the methods of the NOAA Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program, found that concentrations of PAH released from spill remnants have decreased dramatically with time and by 2002 were at or near the range of total PAH (TPAH) of 3-355 ng/g dry weight obtained for mussels from unoiled reference sites in PWS. Time-series TPAH data indicate a mean TPAH half-life in mussel tissues of 2.4 years with a range from 1.4 to 5.3, yielding an annual mean loss of bioaccumulated TPAH of 25%. The petroleum-derived TPAH fraction in mussel tissues has decreased with time, reflecting the decreasing release of EVOS residues in shoreline sediments. These results show that PAH from EVOS residues that remain buried in shoreline sediments after the early 1990s are in a form and at locations that have a low accessibility to mussels living in the intertidal zone.     

Vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum during a red tide in a shallow lagoon

The results of eight sets of repeated observations on the vertical variations of the chlorophyll maximum layer in a shallow lagoon during a red tide show that these were more frequently hydrologically induced, rather than due to active vertical migrations of the red tide-forming organism. These results are discussed and compared to those existing in the literature, with special regard to the role of light and nitrogen in conditioning vertical migrations in red tide-forming dinoflagellates.