Water Quality Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes in Southeastern Pennsylvania*

This study investigates potential changes in nitrogen and phosphorus loads under a warmer and wetter climate, urban growth, and combined changes in the Conestoga River Basin and its five subbasins in southeastern Pennsylvania. A GIS‐based hydrochemical model was employed for assessing the sensitivity of the basins to the projected changes in 2030. Under the HadCM2 climate change scenario, mean annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads are expected to increase, with great increases in spring but slight decreases in fall primarily because of changes in monthly precipitation. When climate change and urbanization occur concurrently, mean annual nitrogen loads further increase by 50% in the most urbanizing subbasin. Point source nitrogen control could mitigate negative effects of climate and land use changes, reducing mean annual nitrogen loads to the contemporary baseline level.     

Mineral chemistry of spinel peridotite xenoliths from Baengnyeong Island, South Korea, and its implications for the paleogeotherm of the uppermost mantle

Abstract   The mantle-derived xenoliths entrained in the Pliocene basanite from Baengnyeong Island, South Korea, are spinel lherzolites and spinel harzburgites. The overall compositional range of the Baengnyeong xenoliths matches that of the post-Archean xenoliths of lithospheric mantle origin from eastern China, but without any compositional evidence for a refractory Archean mantle root. Mineral compositions of the xenoliths have been used to estimate the equilibrium temperatures and pressures, and to construct a paleogeothermal gradient of the source region. The xenolith-derived paleogeotherm is constrained from about 820°C at 7.3 kbar to 1000°C at 20.6 kbar. Like those from the post-Archean Chinese xenoliths of lithospheric mantle origin, the Baengnyeong geotherm is considerably elevated relative to the conductive models at the depth of the crust–mantle boundary, reflecting a thermal perturbation probably related to lithospheric thinning. There is no significant P / T difference between harzburgite and lherzolite, which suggests that the harzburgites are interlayered with lherzolites within the depth interval beneath Baengnyeong Island.     

Analytical exploration of γ-function explicit method for pseudodynamic testing of nonlinear systems

It has been well studied that the γ-function explicit method can be effective in providing favorable numerical dissipation for linear elastic systems. However, its performance for nonlinear systems is unclear due to a lack of analytical evaluation techniques. Thus, a novel technique is proposed herein to evaluate its efficiency for application to nonlinear systems by introducing two parameters to describe the stiffness change. As a result, the numerical properties and error propagation characteristics of the γ-function explicit method for the pseudodynamic testing of a nonlinear system are analytically assessed. It is found that the upper stability limit decreases as the step degree of nonlinearity increases; and it increases as the current degree of nonlinearity increases. It is also shown that this integration method provides favorable numerical dissipation not only for linear elastic systems but also for nonlinear systems. Furthermore, error propagation analysis reveals that the numerical dissipation can effectively suppress the severe error propagation of high frequency modes while the low frequency responses are almost unaffected for both linear elastic and nonlinear systems.     

格尔木井水温异常特征及其与地震关系分析

简要介绍了格尔木井水温动态观测的环境与条件,在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,对水温异常的映震关系进行了分析,并成功地进行了一次短临地震趋势预测。探讨了水温异常的形成原因。     

Use of time series analysis for the identification of tidal effect on groundwater in the coastal area of Kimje, Korea

The purpose of this study is to apply time series analysis to investigate whether the groundwater quality in the coastal area is affected by the tide. Continuous and regular in situ monitoring data of electrical conductivity (EC) and groundwater level, and tidal level data measured by the National Oceanographic Research Institute were used for the time series analysis. Through the time series analysis, it is known that EC and groundwater level conspicuously fluctuate with two periodicities (15.4 and 0.52-day), which is very similar to those of the tide. Also the behaviors of their fluctuations vary in accordance with the tidal period. These indicate that the groundwater quality has been mainly controlled by the tidal level, and the strength of tidal effect on the groundwater quality is different according to the tidal period.     

Least-squares wave-path migration

We present a new least-squares migration method called least-squares wave-path migration. The proposed method combines an iterative conjugate-gradient solver with a stationary-phase wave-path migration operator. Numerical tests demonstrate that (i) least-squares wave-path migration is computationally more efficient than and almost as accurate as Kirchhoff least-squares migration, and (ii) many of the artefacts seen in wave-path migration images are suppressed after several conjugate-gradient iterations. Previous results have shown that 3D wave-path migration is up to 100 times faster than a standard 3D Kirchhoff migration, but sometimes at the cost of reduced quality. With the proposed least-squares wave-path migration method, the image quality in wave-path migration can be improved at an acceptable increase in computational cost.     

Amphibole Ar/Ar Geochronology from the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt, South Korea and its Tectonic Implications

An understanding of the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt (OMB) in South Korea is central to unraveling the tectono-metamorphic evolution of East Asia. Amphibole-bearing rocks in the OMB occur as calcsilicate layers and lenses in psammitic rocks, in the psammitic rocks themselves, and in the mafic volcanic layers and intrusives. Most amphiboles fail to show ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages; those that do have ages ranging from 132 to 975 Ma. The disturbed age pattern and wide variation in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages can be related to metamorphic grade, retrograde chemical reactions, excess Ar and amphibole composition. The oldest age (975 Ma) can be interpreted either as an old igneous or metamorphic age predating sedimentation or a false age caused by excess Ar. The youngest age of 132 Ma and the disturbed age pattern found in amphiboles from rocks located close to Jurassic granitoids are the result of retrograde thermal metamorphic effects accompanying intrusion of the granitoids. Some medium- or coarse-grained amphiboles in the calcsilicates are aggregates of fine-grained crystals. As a result, they are heterogeneous and prove to be readily affected by excess Ar. A disturbed age pattern in amphiboles from the calcsilicates occurring in the high-grade metamorphic zone may also be the product of excess Ar. On the other hand, the disturbed pattern of amphiboles present in the calcsilicates from the low-grade metamorphic zone could arise from both excess Ar and mixed ages. However, amphiboles from psammitic rocks and some calcsilicates in the high-grade metamorphic zone and in intrusive metabasites display real plateau ages of 237 to 261 Ma. The temperature conditions in the high-grade metamorphic zone were higher than the argon closing temperature for amphibole, and the amphiboles in this zone give plateau ages only when they are homogeneous in composition, lack excess Ar, and have not been thermally affected by intrusion of the granitoids. The unmodified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages prove rather younger than the age of the Late Paleozoic metamorphic event of 280 to 300 Ma, but they are close to muscovite K-Ar ages of 263 to 277 Ma. These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages are interpreted as the time of cooling that followed the main regional, intermediate-P/T metamorphic climax. The results demonstrate that interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages in an area subjected to several metamorphic events can be accomplished only by undertaking a thorough tectono-metamorphic study, accompanied by detailed chemical analysis of the amphiboles.     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.