Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges

An increase in sea surface temperature is strongly evident at all latitudes and in all oceans. The scientific evidence to date suggests that increased sea surface temperature will intensify cyclone activity and heighten storm surges. The paper assesses the exposure of (coastal) developing countries to sea-level rise and the intensification of storm surges. Geographic Information System (GIS) software is used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical exposed elements (land, population, GDP, agricultural extent and wetlands) with the inundation zones projected with heightened storm surges and a 1 m sea-level rise. Country-level results indicate a significant increase in exposure of developing countries to these climate-induced changes.     

Modelling the pore fluid diffusion process in aftershock initiation for 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications for marine geohazard estimation in the Andaman region

The role of fluid injection on the occurrence and migration path for the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) and January 2005 Andaman earthquake swarm within the aftershock sequence is investigated here from the viewpoint of pore fluid diffusion process. The Sumatra earthquake created a regionally extensive crustal rupture plane exceeding 1,200 km length below the Andaman Sea. The r–t plots (Shapiro et al. 1997) are constructed for these aftershocks in order to examine the role of poroelastic effects as rupturing progressed with time. Their main results are as follows: the r–t plot corresponding to first 3 h of aftershock activity (when only 44 events of mb ≥ 4.5 originated) reveals that 95% of the data points occurred below the modelled parabola with relatively high D value of 20 m²/s, whereas a significantly low D value of 3.5 m²/s characterises the aftershock activity for the first 24 h (when 420 events of mb ≥ 4.0 occurred). Here, the Coulomb stress was transferred from the main shock with a rapid imposition of normal stress, thus inducing the pore-pressure change that started diminishing almost immediately by fluid diffusion, at a rate, defined by the diminishing D value. The modelling results for fault seismicity at far off distances from the main epicentre are interpreted here as potential indicators for large-scale sub-seabed rupturing—consequent to stress changes induced by bending of the Indian Ocean plate. Bathymetric slopes under the Andaman subduction zone are particularly amenable to sub-marine slides where crustal E–W hinge faults inferred seismically cut across the N–S trending regional thrust and strike-slip faults. Seabed rupturing appears to allow deep-slab hydration in these areas, producing pressure gradients along the normal faults. These features are important since they can herald marine geohazards in the Andaman region.     

Role of transverse tectonics in the Himalayan collision: Further evidences from two contemporary earthquakes

Two contemporary earthquakes originating in the central Himalayan arc and its foredeep (Sikkim earthquake of 18.09.2011, M_w 6.9, h: 10–60 (?) km and Bihar-Nepal earthquake of 20.08.1988, Mw 6.8, h: 57 km) are commonly associated with transverse lineaments/faults traversing the region. Such lineaments/faults form active seismic blocks defining promontories for the advancing Indian Craton. These actually produce conjugate shear faulting pattern suggestive of pervasive crustal interplay deep inside the mountains. Focal mechanism solutions allow inferring that large part of the current convergence across the central Himalayan arc is accommodated by lateral slip. Similar slip also continues unabated in the densely populated foredeep for distances up to several tens of kilometers south of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT).     

Turbulent unsteady flow profiles over an adverse slope

When an unsteady free surface flow encounters an adverse slope, it results in a decelerating flow up the adverse slope. The time dependent turbulent flow is treated here by appropriately reducing the two-dimensional Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equation along with the equation of continuity considering turbulence closure. With suitable choice of parameters, the resulting differential equations are numerically solved to compute free surface and streamwise velocity profiles with time. It is found that initially the advancing free surface is convex upwards for a short time, followed by a jump of the free surface with a negative streamwise velocity that is a backwater rolling breaker due to deceleration of flow. At later time, however, the velocity becomes positive, that is, the breakers roll forward. This dual feature of motion, that is a surge followed by rolling breakers, is repeated for sometime before the jumps stop. The theoretical analysis presented here is motivated by tidal bores propagating upstream in an estuarine river.     

An Improved Approach to Non-Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Extrapolation

We develop an approach to deriving the three-dimensional non-force-free coronal magnetic field from vector magnetograms. Based on the principle of minimum dissipation rate, a general non-force-free magnetic field is expressed as the superposition of one potential field and two constant-α (linear) force-free fields. Each is extrapolated from its bottom boundary data, providing the normal component only. The constant-α parameters are distinct and determined by minimizing the deviations between the numerically computed and measured transverse magnetic field at the bottom boundary. The boundary conditions required are at least two layers of vector magnetograms, one at the photospheric level and the other at the chromospheric level, presumably. We apply our approach to a few analytic test cases, especially to two nonlinear force-free cases examined by Schrijver et al. (Solar Phys. 235, 161, 2006). We find that for one case with small α parameters, the quantitative measures of the quality of our result are better than the median values of those from a set of nonlinear force-free methods. The reconstructed magnetic-field configuration is valid up to a vertical height of the transverse scale. For the other cases, the results remain valid to a lower vertical height owing to the limitations of the linear force-free-field solver. Because our method is based on the fast-Fourier-transform algorithm, it is much faster and easy to implement. We discuss the potential usefulness of our method and its limitations.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> content of andesitic melts at graphite-saturated upper mantle conditions with implications for redox state of oceanic basalt source regions and remobilization of reduced carbon from subducted eclogite

We have performed experiments to determine the effects of pressure, temperature and oxygen fugacity on the CO₂ contents in nominally anhydrous andesitic melts at graphite saturation. The andesite composition was specifically chosen to match a low-degree partial melt composition that is generated from MORB-like eclogite in the convective, oceanic upper mantle. Experiments were performed at 1–3 GPa, 1375–1550?°C, and fO₂ of FMQ ?3.2 to FMQ ?2.3 and the resulting experimental glasses were analyzed for CO₂ and H₂O contents using FTIR and SIMS. Experimental results were used to develop a thermodynamic model to predict CO₂ content of nominally anhydrous andesitic melts at graphite saturation. Fitting of experimental data returned thermodynamic parameters for dissolution of CO₂ as molecular CO₂: ln(K ⁰) = ?21.79?±?0.04, ΔV ⁰?=?32.91?±?0.65 cm³mol^?1, ΔH ⁰?=?107?±?21 kJ mol^?1, and dissolution of CO₂ as CO₃ ^2?: ln(K ⁰ ) = ?21.38?±?0.08, ΔV ⁰?=?30.66?±?1.33 cm³ mol^?1, ΔH ⁰?=?42?±?37 kJ mol^?1, where K ⁰ is the equilibrium constant at some reference pressure and temperature, ΔV ⁰ is the volume change of reaction, and ΔH ⁰ is the enthalpy change of reaction. The thermodynamic model was used along with trace element partition coefficients to calculate the CO₂ contents and CO₂/Nb ratios resulting from the mixing of a depleted MORB and the partial melt of a graphite-saturated eclogite. Comparison with natural MORB and OIB data suggests that the CO₂ contents and CO₂/Nb ratios of CO₂-enriched oceanic basalts cannot be produced by mixing with partial melts of graphite-saturated eclogite. Instead, they must be produced by melting of a source containing carbonate. This result places a lower bound on the oxygen fugacity for the source region of these CO₂-enriched basalts, and suggests that fO₂ measurements made on cratonic xenoliths may not be applicable to the convecting upper mantle. CO₂-depleted basalts, on the other hand, are consistent with mixing between depleted MORB and partial melts of a graphite-saturated eclogite. Furthermore, calculations suggest that eclogite can remain saturated in graphite in the convecting upper mantle, acting as a reservoir for C.     

Finite element analysis of axisymmetric flow into partially penetrating wells

The finite element method was used to solve the problem of flow to a partially penetrating strainer well in a leaky confined aquifer under steady and unsteady conditions. Predictions of the model were compared with reported pumping test data. A good agreement was obtained between them. The effects of penetration and screen position on discharge through imperfect well were studied. Results were compared with analytical solutions and presented graphically.     

The chaotic time series of Indian monsoon rainfall and its prediction

The time series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871–1989 has been analysed using the method of deterministic chaos. It is found that a strange attractor underlies the time series implying the existence of a prediction function. This function has been approximated by a second-degree polynomial, involving the rainfalls of the past seven years and the coefficients have been estimated by least squares fit. The interannual variations of actual and computed rainfalls have been presented for a comparative study.     

Paleomagnetic study of some Cretaceous and tertiary rocks on Hispaniola

Summary A reconnaissance paleomagnetic study of Hispaniola shows that three igneous units in the Dominican Republic possess meaningful directions of magnetism. A Late Cretaceous tonalite, an Eocene pyroxene diorite and a Miocene andesite porphyry have been investigated. The rock material studied is fresh, and has not been affected by secondary oxidation except in the case of the andesite which is occasionally weathered and reveals some hydrothermal alteration. Alternating field and thermal demagnetization result in removal of viscous remanence in some samples, while others reveal a good stability of NRM and little change in direction. The results disclose directions of magnetization substantially different from that of the present earth's field in Hispaniola and from those obtained from contemporaneous rocks of North America. They yield paleomagnetic poles at 23.1° N, 144.9° W for the Cretaceous tonalite and at 17.4° N, 138.0° W for the Eocene diorite, the positions of which are not significantly different from each other, suggesting no change of geomagnetic field direction during the two epochs. These poles have generally similar positions to those obtained from Late Cretaceous rocks on Jamaica and Puerto Rico. The Miocene data fall into two groups, one having a direction corresponding to a pole closely coinciding with the Miocene North American pole and the other giving a paleomagnetic pole at 68.3° N, 151.9° W coinciding with the Miocene pole for Jamaica. Paleotectonic interpretation of the results suggests that like other Greater Antilles, Hispaniola has been subject to large anticlockwise rotation since Late Cretaceous.