Optimization of a multiple gauge,regulated river‐system model. A system approach

With increasing demands on limited water resources, regulation of larger river systems continues to increase and so too does the need for accurate water accounting and prediction in these systems. River system models are either calibrated manually or automatically on a reach‐by‐reach basis, i.e. each reach is calibrated as a separate entity with little or no consideration of fluxes at other locations within the river system. While this is a practical approach, simulation errors can propagate downstream to make calibration or prediction difficult at those locations. Likewise parameters may suffer from over‐fitting especially where observations are erroneous. We developed and implemented a system calibration strategy in a portion of the Murrumbidgee River, Australia, where parameters for 11 gauges (36 parameters) were calibrated together. Parameter values, model states and model goodness of fit were compared to reach‐by‐reach calibration. The system calibration produced a better goodness of fit across the whole system relative to reach‐by‐reach calibration. Additionally, model system states were more realistic than reach‐by‐reach optimized models. Over‐fitting was obvious using the reach‐by‐reach method for one reach/gauge in particular. This was avoided with system calibration method, with improved goodness of fit at all gauges downstream of the problem gauge. The results here suggest that the system calibration approach provides more hydrologically consistent states, improved overall fit and avoids over‐fitting at problem gauges. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of flood vulnerability and assessment of the impacts in coastal zones of Bangladesh due to potential sea-level rise

The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR). The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation. The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic impact.     

Molecular fossils in Cretaceous condensate from western India

The present study reports the biomarker distribution of condensate belonging to the early Cretaceous time frame using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). The early Cretaceous palaeoenvironment was inscribed into these molecular fossils which reflected the source and conditions of deposition of the condensate. The saturate fraction of the condensate is characterized by normal alkanes ranging from n-C₉ to n-C₂₉ (CPI-1.13), cycloalkanes and C₁₄ and C₁₅ sesquiterpanes. The aromatic fraction comprises of naphthalene, phenanthrene, their methylated derivatives and cyclohexylbenzenes. Isohexylalkylnaphthalenes, a product of rearrangement process of terpenoids, is detected in the condensate. Several aromatic sesquiterpenoids and diterpenoids have been recorded. Dihydro-ar-curcumene, cadalene and ionene form the assemblage of sesquiterpenoids which are indicative of higher plant input. Aromatic diterpenoid fraction comprises of simonellite and retene. These compounds are also indicative of higher plants, particularly conifer source which had been a predominant flora during the Cretaceous time.     

Chemical composition and palaeobotanical origin of Miocene resins from Kerala-Konkan Coast,western India

The terpenoid composition of resins from the Miocene lignite horizons from the Kerala-Konkan Coast, western India was analyzed by Curie-point pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (Cupy-GC-MS). The major pyrolysates were cadalene-based bicyclic sesquiterpenoids including some C₃₀-C₃₁ bicadinenes and bicadinanes typical of dammar resin from angiosperm plants of Dipterocarpaceae family. These plants are typically supported by tropical climates which the western Indian region was known to have experienced during early Tertiary period. The present study suggests that these palaeoclimatic conditions persisted until at least the Miocene epoch. These sesquiterpenoids which are commonly detected in many SE Asian crude oils may be utilised as useful biomarkers for petroleum exploration in the western Indian region.     

Numerical analysis of permafrost effects on the seismic site response

Some of the damage to the infrastructure observed in past earthquakes occurred in Alaska could be related to the existence of permafrost. However, only limited research has been carried out so far to investigate the effects of permafrost on the seismic site response. Permafrost with relatively high shear wave velocity (1000–1500 m/s) extensively exists in the interior of Alaska and causes anomaly in the shear wave velocity profile that may alter the site response. In current design practices, permafrost has been treated as bedrock and its potential effects on site response are ignored. A systematic investigation was conducted to understand the effects of permafrost on the ground motion characteristics using one-dimensional equivalent linear analysis for the MCE, AASHTO and IBC Design Earthquake level hazards. The average surface displacement, velocity and acceleration response spectra for a typical permafrost site were obtained and the worst case scenario was identified. The results show that the presence of permafrost can significantly alter the ground motion characteristics and it may not be conservative to ignore the effects of permafrost in the seismic design of civil structures.     

Methane and carbon dioxide sorption on a set of coals from India

Complete sorption isotherm characteristics of methane and CO₂ were studied on fourteen sub-bituminous to high-volatile bituminous Indian Gondwana coals. The mean vitrinite reflectance values of the coal samples are within the range of 0.64% to 1.30% with varying maceral composition. All isotherms were conducted at 30 °C on dry, powdered coal samples up to a maximum experimental pressure of ~ 7.8 MPa and 5.8 MPa for methane and CO₂, respectively.The nature of the isotherms varied widely within the experimental pressure range with some of the samples remained under-saturated while the others attained saturation. The CO₂ to methane adsorption ratios decreased with the increase in experimental pressure and the overall variation was between 4:1 and 1.5:1 for most of the coals. For both methane and CO₂, the lower-ranked coal samples generally exhibited higher sorption affinity compared to the higher-ranked coals. However, sorption capacity indicates a U-shaped trend with rank. Significant hysteresis was observed between the ad/desorption isotherms for CO₂. However, with methane, hysteresis was either absent or insignificant. It was also observed that the coal maceral compositions had a significant impact on the sorption capacities for both methane and CO₂. Coals with higher vitrinite contents showed higher capacities while internite content indicated a negative impact on the sorption capacity.     

Palynology, palaeoecology and palaeodepositional environment of Eocene lignites and associated sediments from Matanomadh mine, Kutch Basin, western India

Extensive Cenozoic lignite-bearing sediments in the western part of Kutch, western India provide a unique opportunity to study the floral diversity at a crucial time of early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Rock samples representing a lignite-bearing sequence from the open cast mine at Matanomadh, Gujarat, western India were collected to study the palynofloral composition and to interpret the palaeoclimate and environment of deposition. The sequence mainly composed of lignites, shales and calcareous mudstones yielded rich assemblage consists of pteridophytic spores (7 genera, 10 species), angiosperm pollens (20 genera, 26 species), fungal remains (14 genera, 16 species) and dinoflagellate cysts. The palynofloral assemblage is marked with dominance of angiospermic pollen, particularly those having affinity with the family Arecaceae. Occurrence of fungal remains in high abundance is also noticed. Based on palynomorph contents, the studied sequence is divisible into two palynozones. It is inferred that lower part of the sequences was deposited in a near-shore environment with intermittent marine incursions whereas the depositional regime of upper part was shallow marine. The climate is found to be tropical-subtropical, humid with heavy precipitation during the deposition of Matanomadh lignite-bearing sequence.     

Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification

The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.     

Parametric study of a physically-based,plot-scale hillslope hydrological model through virtual experiments

Abstract

A physically-based hillslope hydrological model with shallow overland flow and rapid subsurface stormflow components was developed and calibrated using field experiments conducted on a preferential path nested hillslope in northeast India. Virtual experiments were carried out to perform sensitivity analysis of the model using the automated parameter estimation (PEST) algorithm. Different physical parameters of the model were varied to study the resulting effects on overland flow and subsurface stormflow responses from the theoretical hillslopes. It was observed that topographical shapes had significant effects on overland flow hydrographs. The slope profiles, surface storage, relief, rainfall intensity and infiltration rates primarily controlled the overland flow response of the hillslopes. Prompt subsurface stormflow responses were mainly dominated by lateral preferential flow, as soil matrix flow rates were very slow. Rainfall intensity and soil macropore structures were the most influential parameters on subsurface stormflow. The number of connected soil macropores was a more sensitive parameter than the size of macropores. In hillslopes with highly active vertical and lateral preferential pathways, saturation excess overland flow was not evident. However, saturation excess overland flow was generated if the lateral macropores were disconnected. Under such conditions, rainfall intensity, duration and preferential flow rate governed the process of saturation excess overland flow generation from hillslopes.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin