基于傅里叶级数的中国沿海地区Tm模型精化研究

本文采用中国沿海地区13个探空站2010~2014年实测地表温度T_s与平均温度T_m数据,利用傅里叶级数分析法精化中国沿海地区T_m模型,并将2015年探空站实测T_m数据与精化模型进行对比检验。结果表明,精化模型在T_m探测方面具有更高的计算精度,其计算大气可降水量的误差概率分布趋近于正态分布,具有较强的稳定性。     

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

Case Study of Fog Predictability for an Event with Cold-Front Synoptic Pattern

Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage(cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation(i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.     

Three Decades of Sea-Ice Variability in Jiaozhou Bay Revealed by Landsat Observations

In this study, we used Landsat images and meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of sea ice in Jiaozhou Bay(JZB) between 1986 and 2016. The results show that JZB is not always covered by sea ice in winter, but in some extreme cases, sea ice has covered more than one-third of the sea area of the bay. Sea ice in JZB has generally formed between January 1 and February 5, primarily along the coast, and gradually expanding to the central area of the bay. Both meteorological and artificial factors have played important roles in modulating the sea ice distribution. We found sea ice coverage to have been strongly correlated with the accumulated freezing-degree days nine days before the occurrence of sea ice(R2 = 0.767). North-northwest surface winds have dominated the freezing period of sea water in the JZB, and wind speed has exerted a more significant influence on the formation of sea ice when the sea ice coverage has been generally small. Additionally, artificial factors began to affect the expansion of sea ice in JZB since 2007. The construction of the Jiao-Zhou-Bay Bridge(JZBB) is believed to have retarded water flow and reduced the tidal prism, thereby leading to the formation of an ice bridge along the JZBB, which effectively prevents the southward expansion of sea ice.     

Mechanism of toppling and deformation in hard rock slope: a case of bank slope of Hydropower Station,Qinghai Province,China

Recently, various toppling slopes have emerged with the development of hydropower projects in the western mountainous regions of China. The slope on the right bank of the Laxiwa Hydropower Station, located on the mainstream of the Yellow River in the Qinghai Province of Northwest China, is a typical hard rock slope. Further, its deformation characteristics are different from those of common natural hard rock toppling. Because this slope is located close to the dam of the hydropower station, its deformation mechanism has a practical significance. Based on detailed geological engineering surveys, four stages of deformation have been identified using discrete element numerical software and geological engineering analysis methods, including toppling creep, initial toppling deformation, intensified toppling deformation, and current slope formation. The spatial and time-related deformation of this site also exhibited four stages, including initial toppling, toppling development, intensification of toppling, and disintegration and collapse. Subsequently, the mechanism of toppling and deformation of the bank slope were studied. The results of this study exhibit important reference value for developing the prevention–control design of toppling and for ensuring operational safety in the hydropower reservoir area.     

Impact of polymer mixtures on the stabilization and erosion control of silty sand slope

Silty sand can be prone to erosion because it is short of stability cementation materials. In recent years, various emerging soil stabilizers, especially natural organic substance and polymer, have been used to improve soil strength, water stability and ability of erosion resistance. In this study, a new type of soil stabilization additive modified carboxymethyl cellulose(M-CMC), consisting of carboxymethyl cellulose(CMC) and polyacrylamide(PAM), was developed for stabilization treatment of silty sand. A series of laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of M-CMC application on shear strength, permeability, water susceptibility and microstructure of the silty sand soil treated with additive concentration range of 0%-1.3%. Moreover, rainfall simulation experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of M-CMC on the erosion control of silty sand which compacted soil in a large-sized runoff(1 m~2) plots. Test plot which treated with 1.1% concentration of soil stabilizer and control plot which treated with same amount of water were cured outdoor for 50 days before rainfall simulation test. Rainfall intensity was applied at 120 mm·h-1 for 60 min. Finally, a field test is performed in order to assess the practical application effect of silty sand with 1.1% M-CMC. In general, the results showed that an increase of the concentration of M-CMC resulted in an improvement in water susceptibility and shear strength but a decrease in the infiltration rate. Internal friction angle of the treated soil remarkably increased under a low M-CMC concentration(less than 0.7%), while cohesion of them sharply increased under a relatively high M-CMC concentration(larger than 0.7%). Water susceptibility of the treated samples was improved remarkably under a relatively high M-CMC concentration(larger than 0.7%). Permeability coefficient of them decreased significantly when the M-CMC concentration was increased from 0 to 0.5% and, then, from 0.9% to 1.3%. Based on the images obtained from a scanning electron microscopy(SEM), the "coating" and "netting" effects were attributable to the observed improvement of the treated soil. When a plot was protected by a thin layer of soil treated with 1.1% MCMC, its erosion resistance was greatly improved, infiltration rate of water and soil loss yield of plot decreased greatly and even though under a rainfall intensity of 120 mm·h-1. The field test with long-term monitoring(three years) confirmed the M-CMC can effectively control erosion of silty sand slopes for a prolonged period of time.     

珠江三角洲地区活动断裂探查方法浅析

活动断裂是指晚第四纪以来活动过的断裂,它威胁到人类生命财产安全。该文通过文献调研,结合珠江三角洲基底断裂探查研究项目的实际工作,介绍了地面地质调查、浅层地震、断层气测量、钻探及连孔剖面、断裂物质测年、历史地震分析等活动断裂探查方法,以及这些方法的优缺点,并指出了目前活动断裂探查存在的一些问题,提出了建议。     

马氏珠母贝TRACP基因的克隆及组织表达

【目的】克隆马氏珠母贝(Pinctada martensii)抗酒石酸酸性磷酸酶(Tartrate resistant acid phosphatase,TRACP)基因,分析该基因在不同组织中的表达模式。【方法】用RACE技术克隆得马氏珠母贝TRACP基因(PmTRACP),用实时荧光定量PCR分析该基因在外套膜、闭壳肌、足、性腺、珍珠囊、肝胰腺和鳃中的表达。【结果与结论】PmTRACP基因长度为2 034 bp,开放式阅读框972 bp,编码323个氨基酸,5′UTR长度为27 bp,3′UTR长度为1 035 bp。预测PmTRACP分子质量约为36.39 ku,理论等电点为5.97。该基因含有一个钙调神经磷酸酶样磷酸酯酶结构域。PmTRACP与其他物种TRACP的同源性为48%～65%,与长牡蛎(Crassostrea gigas)TRACP的同源性最高,同时D³²、D⁷⁰、Y⁷³、N¹⁰⁸、H²⁰³、H²¹²、H²³⁷、H²³⁹等8个氨基酸活性位点和N¹¹⁴糖基化位点在不同物种TRACP中高度保守。PmTRACP与长牡蛎TRACP的亲缘关系最近。PmTRACP在马氏珠母贝各个组织均有表达,且在肝胰腺和珍珠囊中高表达。     

气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析

全球观鸟活动的规模达到了每年几千万人次,观鸟旅游已经成为世界野生动物观赏业的重要组成部分。气候变化改变了鸟类物候期及其空间格局,这不仅会影响观鸟者的旅游活动,还会进一步对观鸟旅游利益相关者的生计产生影响。监测并尽早地识别出这些影响,提醒利益相关者采取有效的适应策略意义重大。本文引入物候期这一气候变化的"指示器"来反映开展观鸟旅游的重要资源基础——鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化。通过对1980-2010年中国26个地区的98个物候序列的鸟类研究进行荟萃分析发现:中国鸟类离开、抵达、停留时间以及鸟类栖息地的格局都已经发生了改变。春季、夏季鸟类会提前离开或抵达,但在秋季它们的活动会延迟。鸟类停留的时间主要呈现延长的趋势。温度升高会使鸟类停留时间变长,对观鸟旅游的开展有利。中国低纬度地区和西部地区鸟类停留时间更长。鸟类栖息地的格局呈现出向北和向西迁移的特征。游客和景区工作人员均已感知到鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化对观鸟旅游产生的影响。     

广州城市居民地方依恋测度与机理

“地方依恋”问题涉及地理学、心理学、社会学、城市学等多个学科,已经成为中国快速城市化时期亟待解决的重要问题。伴随大城市内部空间的剧烈重构,城市居民对其居住空间的地方依恋也在不断变化,需要进行深入研究。本文选取广州23个典型社区,通过量表测度居民的地方依恋,并采用结构方程模型等计量方法,探索社区信任、社区满意度等要素对居民地方依恋的作用机理。同时,系统对比了居民对于不同空间尺度的地方依恋,如社区尺度和城市尺度,并对本地居民和外来移民两组人群的地方依恋及其差异进行了系统研究。研究发现：① 城市居民的社区依恋程度高于城市依恋程度;② 本地居民的社区依恋和城市依恋程度均明显高于外来移民;③ 城市居民的社区依恋同时受到社区信任和社区满意度的直接影响,但两者需通过社区依恋的中介效应间接影响居民的城市依恋;④ 社区信任与社区满意度对外来移民的社区依恋和城市依恋均具有显著作用,但对本地居民的城市依恋作用较弱。基于实证结果,本文认为,相同因素对于不同尺度的地方依恋作用机理存在差异,不同人群的地方依恋机理亦有不同,地方依恋同时具有尺度差异性和群体差异性。