The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.     

Geochemical effects of oxidation products and framboidal pyrite oxidation in acid mine drainage prediction techniques

Acid mine drainage predictive testwork associated with the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P387A Project: Prediction and Kinetic Control of Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) has critically examined static acid assessment and kinetic information from acid–base accounting techniques, including net acid production potential (NAPP), net acid generation (NAG) and column leach tests. This paper compares results on two waste rock samples that were obtained from the Kaltim Prima Coal mine (KPC) containing significant quantities of fine-grained framboidal pyrite. In agreement with other research, the authors' results indicated that framboidal pyrite is more reactive than euhedral forms due to the greater specific surface area of framboidal pyrite. This is evidenced by optical microscopy of reacted samples. Importantly, the results showed that NAPP testing is biased by the rapid acid generating oxidation of framboidal pyrite prior to, and during the acid neutralisation capacity (ANC) test. This can result in negative ANC values for samples containing significant framboidal pyrite (often “corrected” to zero kg H₂SO₄/t) when significant ANC is actually present in the sample. NAG testing using H₂O₂ indicated that samples containing a significant quantity of framboidal pyrite can result in the catalytic decomposition of the H₂O₂ prior to complete oxidation of the sulfide minerals present, requiring sequential addition of H₂O₂ for completion. A benefit of the NAG test, however, is that it assesses the net acid generation capacity of the sample without bias towards acid generation as is observed using NAPP methods. The kinetic NAG test also gives information on the reaction sequence of framboidal and euhedral pyrite. Periodic (kinetic) analysis of sub-samples from column leach tests indicated rapid oxidation of the framboidal pyrite compared to the euhedral pyrite, which was correlated with the greater framboidal pyrite surface area.Calculations to determine the sulfide/sulfate acidity derived from the oxidation of framboidal pyrite prior to; and during the ANC test have been developed to provide a better indication of the actual ANC (ANC_Actual) of the sample. Paste pH values of <pH 4–5 may be one suitable trigger mechanism for the implementation of this new method. This has led to an improved NAPP estimation of total acid production. Together with NAG and column leach testing this improved methodology has resulted in accurate AMD characterisation of samples containing acidic oxidation products and framboidal pyrite.     

Multiple suppression by 2D filtering in the parabolic τ–p domain: a wave-equation-based method1

The filter for wave-equation-based water-layer multiple suppression, developed by the authors in the x-t, the linear τ-p, and the f-k domains, is extended to the parabolic τ-2 domain. The multiple reject areas are determined automatically by comparing the energy on traces of the multiple model (which are generated by a wave-extrapolation method from the original data) and the original input data (multiples + primaries) in τ-p space. The advantage of applying the data-adaptive 2D demultiple filter in the parabolic τ-p domain is that the waves are well separated in this domain. The numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of such a dereverberation procedure. Filtering of multiples in the parabolic τ-p domain works on both the far-offset and the near-offset traces, while the filtering of multiples in the f-k domain is effective only for the far-offset traces. Tests on a synthetic common-shot-point (CSP) gather show that the demultiple filter is relatively immune to slight errors in the water velocity and water depth which cause arrival time errors of the multiples in the multiple model traces of less than the time dimension (about one quarter of the wavelet length) of the energy summation window of the filter. The multiples in the predicted multiple model traces do not have to be exact replicas of the multiples in the input data, in both a wavelet-shape and traveltime sense. The demultiple filter also works reasonably well for input data contaminated by up to 25% of random noise. A shallow water CSP seismic gather, acquired on the North West Shelf of Australia, demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique on real data.     

Core 14220 and the lateral continuity of soils at Apollo 14 Station G

Three soil samples at Apollo 14 Station G could potentially be used for stratigraphic correlation. Recently dissected core 14220, and core 14230 are 4 m apart and form the east leg of a triangle with an apex 7m to the west that contains trench samples 14145, 14156 and 14149, from top to bottom. Core 14220 penetrated approximately as deeply as the trench and showed a similar lithologic succession. At the base of both sections is a basalt-rich soil, overlain by a series of units that contain distinctive clasts of light soil and pebble-sized glass fragments. Fine-grained dark soil rich in vesicular glass is at the surface in both sections. The succession of similar soil types suggests that the trench correlates with 14220; but poor sample recovery makes thickness comparisons uncertain. Core 14230 appears to closely correlate with the middle of core 14220. The second layer from the top of 14220 and the top of 14230 are fine-grained with an unusually high percentage of light-matrix breccia, and the next stratum down in both cores is coarser and rich in light annealed-matrix breccia. The principal lithologic types that do not match, successionally, from core to core, are zones rich in vesicular glass and soil breccia. Such rock types are of regolith origin and probably represent patchy and discontinuous deposits.     

Properties of metre-wavelength solar bursts associated with interplanetary type II emission

A statistical analysis is used to determine the properties of metre-wavelength events which are associated with interplanetary type II bursts. It is found that the likelihood of an interplanetary type II burst is greatly increased if: (a) an associated metre-wavelength type II has a starting frequency less than 45 MHz; (b) a strong metre-wavelength continuum is present; (c) the type II contains herringbone fine structure; and (d) the metre-wavelength activity is accompanied by strong, long-lasting H and soft X-ray events.Visiting scientist at Division of Radiophysics, January 1983; previous address - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.